Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for April 17.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – April 17
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Wells Fargo Center – Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Broadcast – ESPN
Right out of the gate, the Heat should have the early game advantages over the 76ers. They have a 9.7% lead when it comes to first bucket success rate. They also happen to have one of the best tip guys in the entire league. Bam Adebayo has a 69.4% win rate on the tip, which is 8.9% higher than Joel Embiid’s. Given those facts, we have to lean to the Heat here.
The Heat have spread around their successes as of late, but one thing is for sure, Jimmy Butler loves the postseason. With Terry Rozier out for the play-in, he may have to take a few more of the outside shots. Additionally, three of the last five first bucket scorers against the 76ers have been guards, and one of the others was Chet Holmgren acting like a guard. As a result, I like Playoff Jimmy here.
First FG Bet for April 17: Jimmy Butler (+550)
Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls
Tipoff – 9:30 pm EST
United Center – Chicago, Illinois
Broadcast – ESPN
Clint Capela hasn’t been great on the tip this year. He has just a 46.6% win rate on his chances. However, he’s up against one of the worst jumpers in the league this year. Nikola Vucevic won just 33.8% of his jumps this year, which makes him the 4th worst amonst jumpers with at least 41 jumps.
If that’s not enough to already lean to the Hawks, then consider their success rate on the first field goal as well. They have a 8.6% higher rate than the Bulls. The winner of the tip gets the first bucket, on average, 64.5% of the time. When you combine these two stats, you can feel comfortable with the Hawks.
Just like with the 76ers, the bulk of the first buckets the Bulls have given up recently have been to gaurds. One of those taking a lot of early shots for the Hawks is Bogdan Bogdanovic. I think he’ll be active early again on Wednesday.
First FG Bet for April 17: Bogdan Bogdanovic (+750)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for April 17, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
