Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for April 5.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
CHECK OUT THE SPORTS GAMBLING PODCAST’S DAILY BEST BETS
NBA First FG Props – April 5
Sacramento Kings vs. Boston Celtics
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Madison Square Garden – Boston, Massachusetts
Broadcast – NBA TV
The Celtics are leading the league in both of the primary indicators for future first bucket success – previous first bucket success rate (63.2%) and tip win percentage (72.4%). They’ll get the Kings on Friday, who will be playing the second end of an East coast back-to-back. The Kings also employ one of the worst tip guys in the league in Domantas Sabonis, who is winning the tip just 29.3% of the time. The Celtics should easily have the tip and, judging by their rate of conversion, that should be enough for them to get it done.
On the season, Jaylen Brown has 14 first buckets for the Celtics. That’s 29.2% of all the times that they scored first. With basically a 1-in-3 chance of scoring first, these odds are already tempting. When you add in how often he’s getting in the early play-by-play log, they’re even more tempting.
First FG Bet for April 5: Jaylen Brown (TBD)
San Antonio Spurs vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Smoothie King Center – New Orleans, Louisiana
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
Sometime you look at the season data and you make a move on that. The Spurs have a solid advantage on the jump (9.2%) as well as on the first bucket (6.6%). However, the trends are also really important when considering such things. The Pelicans are hot right now on the first bucket and playing defense. They’ve scored first in each of their last four games and have moved up to 8th in the league in limiting their opponent’s scoring. They even held the potent Celtics offense to just 104 points earlier this week.
This hot run for the Pelicans comes with another trend. Jonas Valanciunas has been getting plenty of first scores for the squad and most of the first looks. He’s scored first in back-to-back games for the Pelicans. He also has five of the team’s eight most recent first field goals. That’s a trend you simply can’t overlook.
First FG Bet for April 5: Jonas Valanciunas (TBD)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for April 5, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
