Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for March 31.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – March 31
Miami Heat vs. Washington Wizards
Tipoff – 6:00 pm EST
Capital One Arena – Washington, DC
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The biggest advantage out there on Easter belongs to the Heat. They are one of the better teams in the league with a 57.5% success rate on the first bucket, which is good for 4th in the NBA. They also are solid on the jump balls with Bam Adebayo getting 68.3% of his tips.
While these numbers would give the Heat an advantage over just about any team in the league, the Wizards make those numbers pop even more. They rank 25th in the league and trail the Heat by 11.5% on the first field goal success rate. They’ve had Richaun Holmes taking the tips, which has gotten them 50.0% – but he is questionable for Sunday’s action.
The same man has taken the first shot for the Heat in each of the last four games. Terry Rozier is getting the rock early. So basically it’s a question as to whether you think he can make it. With a 45.9% field goal percentage this year and a number like this – it’s hard to pass.
First FG Bet for March 31: Terry Rozier (+600)
Chicago Bulls vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Target Center – Minneapolis, Minnesota
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Timberwolves numbers are not nearly up there with the Heat on the early game action, but they still have a large avantage over the Bulls. Rudy Gobert is grabbing 48.5% of the jump balls, which seems low. However, Nikola Vucevic is getting only 29.7% of his. Also, even though the Timberwolves are 20th in first bucket success rate, they still have a 3.3% advantage on the Bulls.
In the last three games for the Timberwolves, Naz Reid has taken one of the first two shots twice. Both times it was a three-point attempt and he went 1-2 on them. The Bulls are 29th in the league in allowing three-pointers to opponents, so it’s reasonable to assume the Timberwolves could come in looking to exploit that.
First FG Bet for March 31: De’Andre Hunter (+500)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for March 31, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
