Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for March 29.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – March 29
Detroit Pistons vs. Washington Wizards
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Capital One Arena – Washington, DC
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The biggest advantage in this game comes on the tip. The Pistons have a massive advantage in terms of the tip win percentage of 13.7%. The Wizards are in 27th place in the league in that category and the Pistons have been getting even better with Jalen Duren back and healthy.
The stats aren’t all that much closer on the first bucket success rate. The Pistons rank 13th in the NBA in that category, while the Wizards are down in 25th. Those numbers have seen a slight uptick for the Wizards since Richaun Holmes started taking the jumps. However, he’ll be out with a toe injury for this one.
If you’ve been watching the Pistons lately (which I wouldn’t recommend), Marcus Sasser has been a big part of the offense. He’s been getting those early looks with Cade Cunningham out hurt. Cunningham is listed as questionable again, and if he doesn’t suit up, I like the rookie out of Houston.
First FG Bet for March 29: Marcus Sasser (TBD)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Sacramento Kings
Tipoff – 10:00 pm EST
Golden 1 Center – Sacramento, California
Broadcast – NBA TV
The Mavericks are 3rd in the NBA in first bucket success rate. They trail only the Raptors and the Celtics. They may even pass those teams if they had a little more respectable number on the jumps.
Their jumpball win percentage is just 41.7% – which is good enough for 23rd in the NBA. However, they’re still quite a bit ahead of the Kings. The Kings have one of the worst jump guys in the league in Domantas Sabonis, who is winning just 27.8% of his jumps. That gives the Mavericks, who are already overcoming poor jump statistics, a double-digit lead on the jump.
We went with the longshot look in the first game, but this one is the chalk side of things. Luka Doncic has five of his team’s last nine first field goals, which includes each of the last two. He gets a lot of early looks and I think it’ll be more of the same here. If his achilles injury acts up, Kyrie Irving is a fine backup option here too.
First FG Bet for March 29: Luka Doncic (TBD)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for March 29, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
