Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for March 27.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – March 27
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Wells Fargo Center – Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Broadcast – ESPN
The 76ers haven’t exactly been tearing up the first bucket numbers. They’ve succeeded just 45.8% of the time, which puts them at 24th in the NBA. However, they are going up against the 29th ranked Clippers, who are scoring first just 38.0% of the time. Those stats bode well for the 76ers, but they also have another weapon.
The last dozen games, Mo Bamba has taken over the jumps for the 76ers. He has won nine of them, which gives him a 75.0% win percentage. If he stretched that over more games, that would make him one of the best in the league. Also, when you compare that with Ivica Zubac’s 30.5%, Philadelphia’s advantages look even better.
In the last three games, Tobias Harris has taken the first shot for the 76ers in each of them. In one of those games he took all three of their first three attempts. You have to love the volume on this play.
First FG Bet for March 27: Tobias Harris (+650)
San Antonio Spurs vs. Utah Jazz
Tipoff – 9:00 pm EST
Delta Center – Salt Lake City, Utah
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Spurs currently rank 8th in the NBA in first field goals. They are 20.9% better than the last place Jazz, which is just part of the reason I’m leaning with the Spurs. The other is their much better jump data. Victor Wembanyama is getting the tip at 59.4% of the time. John Collins is only nabbing 38.9%, which means the Spurs should start with it.
The Spurs are one of the harder teams to cap their early action. There are a lot of players that get involved with the early shots. If we instead look to what the Jazz has had issues with, things get a little clearer. In the last four first buckets they’ve given up, three of them have been to big men. Wembanyama hangs out a touch more on the outside, so let’s go to their power forward, Jeremy Sochan.
First FG Bet for March 27: Jeremy Sochan (+500)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for March 27, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
