Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for March 26.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – March 26
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Fiserv Forum – Wilwaukee, Wisconsin
Broadcast – TNT
The Bucks have a pair of advantages on the stats here against the Lakers. They may not be by much, but they lead the Lakers in both tip win percentage (by 0.6%) and first bucket success rate (6.3%). Those may not be enough to get all over the Bucks, but they also have success against the Lakers just a couple weeks ago. When the two teams faced off on March 8th, the Bucks won the tip and scored first.
Giannis Antetokounmpo may seem like the obvious play, but the stats shake out heavily in his favor here. He has three of the last seven first buckets for the Bucks, and also four of the last nine. On top of that, the Lakers give up the majority of their first field goals to guys 6’9″ and over, and Antetokounmpo scored first on them when they last played.
First FG Bet for March 26: Giannis Antetokounmpo (TBD)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Smoothie King Center – New Orleans, Louisiana
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The advantages in this game are a little bit more clear. The Thunder will send Chet Holmgren out for the tip and he’s winning those at a 61.4% clip this year. Jonas Valančiūnas will be on the other side and he’s winning only 49.3% of his. That and a 3.5% advantage on the first bucket success rate should be enough to lean to the Thunder.
These two have faced off twice this year already. In the first one, Holmgren took the tip and then proceeded to score first. In the second, Valančiūnas nabbed the tipoff and Chet still scored first. He got back on the board with one late last week to move his season number up to eleven. Let’s make it an even dozen on Tuesday.
First FG Bet for March 26: Chet Holmgren (TBD)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for March 25, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
