Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for March 23.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – March 23
Sacramento Kings vs. Orlando Magic
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Kia Center – Orlando, Florida
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
Both of these teams are below average on the season when it comes to getting the first bucket. The Kings rank 17th in the league with a 49.3% success rate. The Magic come in right behind them at 19th (47.1%). While those numbers don’t really differentiate, the thing we can use to make a pick here is the trajectory.
Most of the negative stats associated with the Magic’s early game numbers come from when Goga Bitadze was taking the jump. He won just 18.8% of the jumpballs and they were barely ever scoring first with him in there. With Wendell Carter Jr. in there, they win 48.7% of them and are scoring first nearly twice as much. Also, when you compare those tip numbers to Domantas Sabonis (29.0% tip wins), it’s even earsier to lean Magic.
On the season, Jalen Suggs has been hot for the Magic. He has nine first field goals successes on the season. With Gary Harris banged up at the other guard spot – I like him to get an early deep ball here.
First FG Bet for March 23: Jalen Suggs (+750)
Utah Jazz vs. Houston Rockets
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Toyota Center – Houston, Texas
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Jazz are my favorite team to fade on the first bucket in the league (perhaps tied with the Clippers). No matter how you slice it, their early numbers are terrible. They are dead last in first buckets with a 31.4% success rate. They are also 25th on the jumpball – winning just 38.6% of them.
The Rockets are not at the top of the league in these stats. In fact they rank 22nd in first buckets and 19th in tipoffs. However, even being that low in the league rankings, they’re way ahead of the Jazz. Despite being 22nd in first field goals, they have a 15.0% advantage over the Jazz – which is good enough for me here.
Jalen Green is the chalky answer for the Rockets, but one that I think you can’t overlook here. Five of the last seven successes the Rockets have had on the first bucket come from Green. That includes the last two in a row.
First FG Bet for March 23: Jalen Green (+400)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for March 23, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
