Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for March 19. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for March 19.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – March 19
Charlotte Hornets vs. Orlando Magic
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Kia Center – Orlando, Florida
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Magic have some pretty ugly numbers when it comes to jump ball data. They currently rank 27th in the league with just a 35.3% win rate. However, those numbers are a little misleading as Goga Bitadze was the jump guy for a chunk of the season and was downright awful at it. Wendell Carter is back on the jump and getting a much more respectible 48.6% – which happens to be just a meager 2.8% less than the Hornets’ average.
Since getting Carter back, the Magic’s numbers on the first bucket have been up too. They’re now all the way up to 18th in the league with a 47.1% success rate. That looks way better than the Hornets who sit down at 28th with a 39.7% rate.
Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner have combined for all of their last five successes on the first field goal. Suggs is getting a few more early looks and Wagner got the last one. You can’t go wrong with either, but we’ll lean on Suggs.
First FG Bet for March 19: Jalen Suggs (TBD)
Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Frost Bank Center – San Antonio, Texas
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Mavericks are tied for the highest average in the league when it comes to scoring the first bucket. However, we can’t overlook their decision to put Daniel Gafford in as the center to take the tips. While it’s a move that makes a lot of sense for the team, Gafford’s tip numbers are ugly.
On the year, Gafford is getting just 34.0% of his tips. That’s nearly a 10% downgrade from Derrick Lively. When you consider that tip winners get 64.1% of all first buckets, this is significant. The Spurs also aren’t a bad team with their first scores (8th in the league currently). Victor Wembanyama is getting 59.0% of their jumpballs, and that should be enough to lean to them here.
If the Spurs are going to let it fly early, why not lean on Julian Champagnie. He’s a contrarian play here, but he’s had one of their first three shots in two of their last three games. He also took the first shot overall in one of those. With a big number, he’s worth a dice roll.
First FG Bet for March 19: Julian Champagnie (TBD)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for March 19, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
