Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for March 18.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – March 18
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Gainbridge Fieldhouse – Indianapolis, Indiana
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Cavaliers have a massive advantage when it comes to getting the first bucket and his name is Jarrett Allen. On the year he’s getting 74.2% of all his jumpballs, which has the Cavaliers as the best team in the league on the jump. They’ll have a 26.7% advantage over the Pacers here, which should easily give them the first possession.
Obviously, the first bucket it more than just getting the ball. While the Cavaliers haven’t been nearly as good at scoring the first hoop as they have been on the tip, they’re still much better than the Pacers. They sit in 8th place in the league in first bucket percentage. On the other hand, the Pacers are down at 21st – 7.3% behind the Cavaliers.
Despite having some clear advantages, the Cavaliers will have the hinderance of being banmged up. Both Donovan Mitchell and Max Strus will be out of commission for Monday’s action. That has been benefitting Isaac Okoro, who has plenty of early shots for the squad lately. With the bigs in the middle for the Pacers, I think we’ll see him let something fly from the outside.
First FG Bet for March 18: Isaac Okoro (+750)
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Sacramento Kings
Tipoff – 10:00 pm EST
Golden 1 Center – Sacramento, California
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Grizzlies are another team with a weapon on the jump that boosts their ability to score first. Jaren Jackson Jr. has won 43-of-58 jump balls this year (74.1%). That number is already impressive, but is much more so when you put it next to Domantas Sabonis, who has just a 30.0% tip win average.
The first score numbers are better for the Grizzlies too. They’re 10th in the league compared to 20th in the league for the Kings. The massive tipoff advantage combined with a 5.9% lead on the first bucket should be enough to lean to the visitors on Monday.
The Grizzlies are a team without a lot of variation on who scores first for them. Jaren Jackson has 14 of their first field goals this year, which accounts for 38.9% of their successes. It may be a little chalky, but I think it makes sense here.
First FG Bet for March 18: Jaren Jackson Jr (+500)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for March 18, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
