Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for March 17.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – March 17
Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tipoff – 1:00 pm EST
Fiserv Forum – Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Broadcast – ABC
The Suns are number one in the league in winning the tip. On one hand, having the first possession is a huge advantage. On the other, they have some major issues with converting those chances. No team has a greater negative difference between their tip wins and their first bucket success (-22.4%). So even though they’re one of the best at getting the possession, they’re basically league average at doing anything with it.
The converse is true about the Bucks. Their tip game is just above average. Brook Lopez is getting 56.1% of his tips on the year. However, the team if converting at 3.0% better than their team tip average. That puts them 5th in the league in converting their chances and 7.4% better than the Suns.
The last first bucket the Suns gave up was to Jarrett Allen and they tend to give up more to opposing big men. Meanwhile, Brook Lopez has taken one of the Bucks’ first three shots in each of the last three games – all without a first bucket to show for it. Let’s get him on the board here.
First FG Bet for March 17: Brook Lopez (+1000)
Atlanta Hawks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Tipoff – 9:30 pm EST
crypto.com Arena – Los Angeles, California
Broadcast – NBA TV
The Hawks haven’t been great on the tip this year. They’re grabbing the first possession at just 45.5% of the time. However, that’s still good for 16.7% better than the Clippers who are dead last in the NBA. The first bucket numbers aren’t much better for Los Angeles. They’re 29th in the league and are only scoring first 39.4% of the time. The Hawks, on the other hand, are 7th in the NBA at 54.6%
Maybe we’re jumping off to a crazy reaction based on one game, but Vit Krejci got both of the Hawks first two shots last game. He was open and willing to fire from range and I’m hoping he’s feeling that again – especially with this price out here.
First FG Bet for March 17: Vit Krejci (+1400)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for March 17, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
