Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for March 15.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – March 15
Orlando Magic vs. Toronto Raptors
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Scotiabank Arena – Toronto, Ontario
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
If you look at the full season stats, the Raptors have a massive advantage. They’re number one in the league in first bucket success rate, and the Magic rank down at 23rd. They also have a 16.7% advantage when it comes to winning the tip. However, the season-long data doesn’t tell the full story.
Many of the games that drew the Magic’s numbers down were when they had Goga Bitadze on the tip. With Wendall Carter Jr. back in, they’re back to winning 45.5% of the tips – which is 12.2% higher than their season average. The opposite is true for the Raptors. They had been getting a better average out of Jakob Poeltl, who is out hurt. Meanwhile, Kelly Olynyk is only getting 33.3% of the tips. As a result, we’re going with the Magic on Friday.
Jalen Suggs may have taken their first two shots last game, but he’s had far less volume than Franz Wagner as of late. Wagner has one of their first three shots in each of the last three games – including two in one of them.
First FG Bet for March 15: Franz Wagner (TBD)
Los Angeles Clippers vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Smoothie King Center – New Orleans, Louisiana
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Clippers were a team I set out to fade on Thursday, and I see no reason not to do it again. They’ll be on the second end of back-to-back games and they continue to be atrocious on the early game stats. They loss the tip and the first score to the Bulls last night, who are in the bottom third of the league. Their 28th ranking on the first bucket only pales in comparison to their dead last ranking on the tip.
It almost doesn’t matter what the Pelicans’ numbers look like. However, they have been about league average on the first score. They have a 47.7% success rate, putting them 18th in the league.
A lot of the early shots for the Pelicans have been going to Zion Williamson. In fact, two games ago he took all three of their first three shots. He’s had at least one of the first three in the other three most recent games. With that kind of volume, you don’t want to go anywhere else.
First FG Bet for March 15: Zion Williamson (TBD)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for March 15, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
