NBA First FG Props – March 5

NBA First FG Props - March 5

Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for March 5. Go here for NBA Championship odds.

Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for March 5.

Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.


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NBA First FG Props – March 5

Detroit Pistons vs. Miami Heat

Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Kaseya Center – Miami, Florida
Broadcast – NBA League Pass

The Heat’s lead here on the first field goal is pretty small. They rank just a single spot ahead of the Pistons (7th compared to 8th) and have a 3.4% lead in terms of the stats. However, there are more advantages that lean to Miami.

Another of their big leads is the jump ball. While the team-wide data is just 10.0% apart from one another, the individual player data is more drastic. Bam Adebayo is winning 70.6%, which is head and shoulders above Jalen Duren’s 52.3%.

We went to this well last time, and it didn’t work out, but I love Duncan Robinson and his numbers here. He had a first shot in three of the last four games that Tyler Herro has missed. He took two three-pointers last time before anyone scored – although neither fell.

I expect him to get an early look here, and with a sharp number, we’ll hope to get one to fall.

First FG Bet for March 5: Duncan Robinson (TBD)

Indiana Pacers vs. Dallas Mavericks

Tipoff – 8:30 pm EST
American Airlines Center – Dallas, Texas
Broadcast – NBA League Pass

There’s not much of a difference in the jumpball between these two teams. The Pacers have a slight 3.4% lead over the Mavericks. While that might mean that they win the tip, the more important data still leans to the Mavericks.

The Pacers have the same exact rate of scoring first as they do winning the jump – 46.0%. The Mavericks, on the other hand, have way better numbers when it comes to scoring first. In fact, they come in 19.7% higher than their jump average, which puts them 3rd in the NBA.

Only one player on the Mavericks has taken one of their first three shots in each of the last three games. Surprisingly, that isn’t Luka Doncic. PJ Washington is the only player with early action in all three. He seems to be a guy the Mavericks have learned to lean on a bit, so let’s see it in action here.

First FG Bet for March 5: PJ Washington (TBD)


If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for March 5, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar. 

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