Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for March 4. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for March 4.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – March 4
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Fiserv Forum – Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Broadcast – NBA TV
The Clippers continue to be one of the best teams in the league to fade on the first bucket. Not only do they rank 29th in the league at converting first field goals, but the other metrics look rough for them as well.
They rank 29th on the tip as well, with just a 30.5% win rate. Their regular jump guy isn’t much of a saving grace, with Ivica Zubac coming in at 31.9% himself.
The Bucks’ numbers are looking much better. They win 54.1% of the tips with their regular guy Brook Lopez snagging 55.0%. They improve the numbers when it comes to conversions of those first scores. They score first 59.0% of the time, which is over 20% better than the Clippers.
Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo have roughly been splitting the bulk of the early game scores. Malik Beasley sneaks in there occasionally as well, but it’s really the big two carrying the load.
With Giannis Antetokounmpo banged up and questionable for Monday’s game, we’ll take ‘Dame Time’ to put the first one in.
First FG Bet for March 4: Damian Lillard (TBD)
Chicago Bulls vs. Sacramento Kings
Tipoff – 10:00 pm EST
Golden 1 Center – Sacramento, California
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Kings keep putting up solid first bucket numbers despite their terrible jump ball data. They have the largest gap between the two stats.
With just 28.8% of jump ball wins, they are still getting nearly 50% of the first scores (49.2%). They’re 30th when it comes to the jump but just 16th on the tip.
The lucky part for the Kings here is that they have a team that is nearly just as bad on the tip. Nikola Vucevic is getting just 32.0% of his tips this year. Unfortunately for the Bulls, they are not converting at nearly the same rate (just 43.3% on the year).
Given that the Kings seem to be able to score first often, even when they lose the jump, plus adding that they might win the jump on Monday, you have to go with them.
Domantas Sabonis has gotten every other Kings’ first bucket since the year started. The shots he takes, particularly early on, are high percentage and make him a popular candidate to get the first made field goal.
He didn’t get the last one, as Keegan Murray scored first against the Nuggets, so let’s get that trend to continue.
First FG Bet for March 4: Domantas Sabonis (TBD)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for March 4, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
