Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for March 1.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – March 1
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
FedExForum – Memphis, Tennessee
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
If you sort the list of every guy going for the jump (with at least 20 jumpballs on the year), Jaren Jackson Jr. ranks third in the league. His 72.2% win rate falls only behind Jarrett Allen and Kristaps Porzingis. Deandre Ayton isn’t putting up bad numbers for the Blazers at 55.0%, but it’s hardly the type of number that’d make me even consider Portland here.
On top of the solid chance they win the tip, the Grizzlies are also a lot better at converting those opportunities. They are ranked 12th in the NBA in getting the first field goal. The Blazers, on the other hand, are 24th in the league and have an 8.7% defecit to Memphis.
With Memphis clearly in the driver’s seat here, there isn’t really anyone to look to other than their early game star, Jaren Jackson Jr. With 14 first buckets on the year, he has more than any player. He’s actually only 11 shy of tying the entire Blazers team.
First FG Bet for March 1: Jaren Jackson Jr. (TBD)
Washington Wizards vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Tipoff – 10:30 pm EST
crypto.com Arena – Los Angeles, California
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
These two may occupy very different places in the standings, but they have relatively similar stats when it comes to the early game data. The Wizards are 27th in the NBA on the tip, which sounds bad. However, The Clippers are even worse – coming in at 29th in the NBA. Neither of them have all that great of numbers on the first bucket either, with each coming in under 50%.
Despite bad numbers on both sides, we see a lot of recent positives out of the Wizards. While trading Daniel Gafford was a move to concede on the season, it made them stronger on the tip. Marvin Bagley Jr. is now taking the tips and he’s 18.6% ahead of Gafford in terms of the tip.
A lot of the recent first buckets have come from Kyle Kuzma, but a lot of the first action has belonged to Deni Avdija. He’s already scored first six times this year, and I like him to add to that here.
First FG Bet for March 1: Deni Avdija (TBD)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for March 1, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
