Whether you believe it or not, there are already people drafting on Underdog Fantasy for the 2024 NFL Season! If you’re a fantasy football degenerate like me, you’re surely firing up the “Big Board” and “Little Board” contests. Last year, Underdog had these contests released in February. Whereas in 2024, we’ve been able to draft since the last week of January. There has been little movement in ADP, but there are many steals with proven production to be found.
This year, Underdog Fantasy has loaded rookies into the pool of players despite not having their settled landing spots via the NFL draft. In turn, this has pushed proven talents down the board. While there are certainly rookies to target at value, there are many who are placed at a high cost at their current ADP, thus pushing trustworthy players down the board.
In this article, we’ll cover a top ADP choice for each position. For each player, we’ll highlight per-game averages, position finishes, key stats, production potential, draft strategies, and more.
Be on the lookout for more upcoming Best Ball articles from the SGPN Fantasy Football Catalog! It’s only February, and we’re going to be here all offseason, guiding you with various Best Ball strategies, draft targets, player evaluations, cardio drafts, and all sorts of Best Ball Degeneracy!
2024 Best Ball Early ADP Steals and Sleepers
QB – Jared Goff – Detroit Lions
ADP: 112
Position Rank: QB17
Holy Expected Value, Batman?! Jared Goff is coming off the board as QB17 despite finishing as a top-10 QB the last two seasons! This past season, Goff finished as QB7, and in 2022, he finished as QB10. The Lions’ offense improved immensely across the past two seasons, specifically on the offensive line.
Last year, they finished with PFF’s second-highest offensive line rating, and in 2022, they finished as the eighth-best group in the league.
Goff has appeared in 17 games in back-to-back seasons while averaging 17 fantasy points per game. In 2023, he totaled 4575 passing yards (2nd) while throwing 30 touchdowns (4th) and 12 interceptions.
Goff is in a great position to offer fantasy managers safe production behind a solid offensive line that established not just the 5th best-rushing offense but the 4th best-passing team as well.
The Lions also have emerging offensive threats in TE Sam LaPorta, WR Jameson Williams, and RB Jahmyr Gibbs. These young players, paired with offensive stars like WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and RB David Montgomery, provide Goff with the slew of necessary weapons to maintain elite production in 2024.
Does Jared Goff Still Suck?
Goff threw the ball a ton last season, totaling the 2nd most pass attempts in the NFL (605), which is not surprising given the fast and furious offense the Lions brought to the field this year.
What’s more surprising is that Goff ranked #5 in True Completion Percentage and #6 in Deep Ball Completion Percentage. So, if you’re tailing a “Jared Goff still Sucks” narrative, you’re gonna get caught holding the ticket!
Goff finished last year as QB7 and led the 3rd best offense in the NFL, yet he is ranked QB17 on Underdog. It’s a disgustingly massive +EV move to draft him at this time. The funniest part is that Goff opened this tournament at QB16. There’s something special about loving something everyone hates; for me, it’s Jared Goff!
You can easily draft him as your second QB if you feel it necessary to draft another top-ranked QB, but given the volatility at the position last year, I’m enjoying waiting on QB in my Best Ball drafts. I’ll easily start with Goff and back him up with Matthew Stafford QB19, Kirk Cousins QB20, Aaron Rodgers QB21, or Baker Mayfield QB24.
Jared Goff 🚀Jameson Williams
45-yard TOUCHDOWN 🙌
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/ZfjO5zYKHf
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 15, 2023
RB – Brian Robinson Jr. – Washington Commanders
ADP: 91
Position Rank: RB28
This is another clear ADP discrepancy with Brian Robinson Jr. coming off the board as the 28th-best RB in 2024. Robinson Jr. finished as RB21 last season despite playing in 15 games.
BRJ recorded 12 fantasy points per game last season behind 214 touches, 1101 total yards, and 9 total touchdowns. However, it wasn’t easy! Robinson Jr averaged just 4.11 yards per carry behind PFF’s 24th-ranked offensive line.
While that production may not be a shock to you, everyone was certainly surprised to see how much more Robinson Jr. was included in the passing game in 2023. He collected 36 receptions on 43 targets for 368 receiving yards and caught four touchdowns.
He boasted an impressive 10.22 yards per reception, a four-yard increase from his rookie season. Robinson Jr. only recorded nine catches on 12 targets in year one; seeing him used in the passing game was an awesome surprise for fantasy managers who took a shot on him.
BRJ increased his per-game fantasy production by 25% from year one to year two, and I’m expecting a similar increase in 2024. It’s likely that RB Antionio Gibson will depart from the Commanders via free agency, offering 113 vacated touches at the RB position, roughly seven vacated touches per game.
Robinson Jr. totaled 14.2 touches per game last season, and these totals suggest that Robinson will touch the ball anywhere from 18-20 times per game next season as the Commanders RB1.
New Offensive Coordinator?
Next season, BRJ gets a new offensive coordinator in Kliff Kingsbury, who will certainly boast the Commander’s run game. Kingsbury was the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals from 2019 to 2022.
In that time, his team had a top-10 rushing offense in three of four seasons. Kingsbury notably made Kenyon Drake fantasy relevant in the 2019 and 2020 seasons.
James Conners’s massive 2021 season is also worth noting. He recorded 1000+ all-purpose yards and 18 total touchdowns. That season, Conner recorded 15.9 fantasy points per game, roughly the same projection I have for Robinson Jr. in 2024 based on the expected increase in his workload.
You can draft Robinson Jr. anywhere from the late 8th to early 9th rounds right now on Underdog Fantasy. This is an immense value I don’t believe will be there the deeper we get into the offseason; buy him now!
THERE GOES THAT MAN BRIAN ROBINSON JR!
TOUCHDOWN #COMMANDERS!#HTTC | @Commanders pic.twitter.com/K7EZfhTyVp
— The Athletes Plug (@TheAthletesPlug) October 15, 2023
WR – Jakobi Meyers – Las Vegas Raiders
ADP: 101
Position Rank: WR46
I understand that Jakobi Meyers has never been a sexy name for fantasy managers. However, he’s quite underrated, and his numbers show it. Meyers is coming off his first double-digit touchdown season as he caught eight TDs and ran in for another two.
He totaled 183.10 fantasy points on Underdog last season, locking in 11.44 fantasy points per game through 16 games played. He would finish as WR24, 22 spots ahead of his current ADP.
While many were surprised by Meyers’ success last season, he’s actually been quite consistent across the past three years. In 2022, he recorded 10.4 fantasy points per game; in 2021, he locked in 8.4 FPPG.
Across the past three seasons, Meyers played in 47 games while averaging 10.09 fantasy points per game. Even if he were to regress from this slow growth, he wouldn’t fall past WR35. Meyers finished as WR30 in 2021, WR28 in 2022, and WR24 in 2023. I expect he can continue this growth with the Raiders in year six. The team is likely to upgrade the QB position this offseason.
Therefore, we should expect a price hike from Raider players after that time. Davante Adams is currently WR15, another ADP discrepancy that will adjust through the offseason, most likely after being traded or the Raiders adding an aforementioned QB.
Wait…His QBs Were Who?!
Meyers isn’t a risky pick at his ADP, and you’re getting great value in a player with clear underlying talent. He’s succeeded with less-than-average QB play with the likes of Aidan O’Connell, Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer, Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe, Cam Newton, and Jarrett Stidham.
He did actually get to play with Tom Brady in his rookie season; however, he finished as WR97 that year. It was the worst year of his career in terms of production.
I’ve done 11 Big Board drafts so far and grabbed Meyers three times. I believe he’s a great value that will climb the board but not immensely; grab this discount while you can. I expect he’ll rise to somewhere in the mid-30s for the wide receiver position by the end of April.
Each time I’ve drafted him in 2024, he’s been my 5th WR selected, putting him in my flex territory if my other picks are hitting as they should. Ten fantasy points per game is a great baseline for any player being drafted in this range. If he continues this slow growth plan, we’ll be looking at 12-13 FFPG this season.
Touchdown Raiders‼️ Jakobi Meyers on the run for the TD! pic.twitter.com/kOat0Tg6NC
— Lukas Galecki-Shofroth (@TGNCoverage) November 5, 2023
TE – Dalton Schultz – Houston Texans
ADP: 126
Position Rank: TE15
Dalton Schultz is coming off the Board as TE15, which is a discrepancy but not a major miss. His last four seasons have been quite good. Last year, he finished as TE10, followed by TE11 in 2022, then TE3 in 2021, and TE12 in 2020. He’s a slippery tight end who can fall into soft coverage with ease, making him a desirable target for any quarterback.
He was at his best in 2021 when he recorded 100+ targets with the Dallas Cowboys. That was also his last season with a full 17 games, as he missed two games in each of his past two seasons. Had he been healthy, he could have easily finished a few spots higher at the TE position.
Rookie QB C.J. Stroud finished 14th in the league in passing attempts last season, and I expect with the way he finished the year, the Texans will want him to pass the ball more. I expect there to be more passing volume available for Schultz, even if he is amongst a stronger receiving group than Houston fans are used to.
I’m Coming Back for More!
Dalton Schultz was my second-most drafted TE last year via Best Ball Mania IV. I selected him in 17.9% of my 150 entries. Schultz had me in love with him last season, and it’s carrying over to 2024. I don’t love drafting him as my first TE, but I’ve done it a lot!
Last year, I put together a ton of late-round TE teams that included the likes of Dalton Schultz, Trey McBride, Taysom Hill (Yes, He Counts!), Jake Ferguson, Cade Otten, and Tyler Conklin. I advanced 38 of 150 teams, many of which were led with this draft strategy.
The Big Board has 20 rounds rather than Best Ball Mania’s traditional 18 rounds, so I don’t mind buying four cheap TEs in this format. This approach helps you front-load your team with players at positions like RB/WR that naturally have higher ceilings based on big play ability and offensive scheming.
Schultz may not move up the board much, or if at all, but this is still a very competitive price versus the production we’ve seen through the past four seasons.
I knew that Dalton Schultz touchdown yesterday felt familiar. pic.twitter.com/TT6c3wNqwa
— Robert Mays (@robertmays) January 14, 2024
