Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for January 4. Go here for NBA Championship odds.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for January 4.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – January 4
Milwaukee Bucks vs. San Antonio Spurs
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Frost Bank Center – San Antonio, Texas
Broadcast – TNT
The Bucks have some of the best tip numbers in the league. Their 61.8% is top in the league, and it involves the same guy on the jump each time – Brook Lopez. The Spurs rank a little lower down at 10th at 57.6%, but some of that blame can go on Victor Wembanyama’s rest, as he’s still grabbing 60% of his jumps.
The difference maker here will be what happens after they get the ball. The Spurs are tough in the early game on defense and catapult their position on the first bucket up to third in the league. The low percentage shots of the Bucks drop them all the way down to 18th. As a result, it feels like a Spurs bucket is coming first on Thursday.
While the Spurs have gone 0-2 on the first bucket in their last two games, the same guy has scored first for them when they did get on the board. Devin Vassell has been getting a lot of the early looks and has been the most consistent on the team in making good on them.
First FG Bet for January 4: Devin Vasell (+750)
Denver Nuggets vs. Golden State Warriors
Tipoff – 10:00 pm EST
Chase Center – San Francisco, California
Broadcast – TNT
The Nuggets have a clear advantage on the early action here. Not only do they have roughly a 9% edge in both the tip numbers and the first bucket number, but the Warriors are trotting out an infrequent jumper as of late. Trayce Jackson-Davis has taken Kevon Looney’s spot in the starting lineup and on the tip.
While he may be helping the team as a whole, his jumps have looked uninspiring. On Tuesday, he lost the tip to Goga Bitadze, who is the worst in the league at 17.4% (after the win against Jackson-Davis). Jokic should grab the early tip here, and the Nuggets should get the basket, too.
The Nuggets have had four different players score each of their last four first buckets. Jamal Murray is by far getting the most looks, but I’ll look to a contrarian play on Thursday. Michael Porter Jr. has been getting plenty of early looks. He also is third on the team in shot attempts behind Murray and Jokic, all while shooting at a better clip than Murray.
First FG Bet for January 4: Michael Porter Jr. (+600)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for January 4, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.