Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for December 23.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – December 23
Milwaukee Bucks vs. New York Knicks
Tipoff – 12:30 pm EST
Madison Square Garden – New York, New York
Broadcast – NBA TV
The Knicks continue to dominate the early stats on the season. They rank second in the league on the tip and third in the league on the first bucket. A lot of their early score success is made possible by taking high percentage shots early in the game. The Bucks are the exact opposite of that. Since the days when Mike Budenholzer was in charge, they’ve loved to just throw it up from anywhere. As a result, their tip percentage is way higher than their first field goal numbers. Both of those are well below where the Knicks are at, so let’s lean to New York here.
The Bucks have typically given up the first bucket to big men. The last three that they have conceded have been to the other teams’ bigs. However, the last guard to torch them early was against these very same Knicks – and it was Jalen Brunson. He’s got a slew of early buckets on the year, and I’ll say he nails it again here.
First FG Bet for December 23: Jalen Brunson (+550)
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Atlanta Hawks
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
State Farm Arena – Atlanta, Georgia
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
There’s a massive difference here on the tip. The Grizzlies hold a 30.7% advantage when it comes to winning the tip. It may not be as great, but they also share a 16.5% advantage on the first bucket. There couldn’t possibly be a reason to take anyone on the Hawks here.
You can look to the full season data for a play on the Grizzlies and you would certainly find some tendancies. However, something fundemental has changed in the last two games. Ja Morant is back after serving a suspension for the first quarter of the season. In his first two games back, he’s gotten the first attempt for Memphis in both of them. Is there any reason to believe he won’t again on Saturday?
First FG Bet for December 23: Ja Morant (+750)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for December 23, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
