2023 NFL Week 16 Trends To Bet: Stats To Back In Week 16 (39-19 Record)

2023 NFL Week 16 Trends To Bet: Stats To Back In Week 16 (39-19 Record)

Torn on which way to lean on the games this weekend of football? Want to go less with your gut and more with statistics? We break down five games where you can take a look at NFL Week 16 trends to bet and stats to back! Unfortunately, most of the sites we follow trends for aren’t updated. That’s okay. We have other avenues we can look down. Let’s dive into the numbers, look at the historical data, and see what situations are relevant this week.

We’ll look at all this stuff and more! Make sure to check back each week as we keep track of betting the trends record, as well as give new trends and games to bet! Small bounce back last week and we’ll look to do even better this week. Last week’s picks finished 3-2, bringing our six-week record to 39-19, which is winning us cash! Let’s win some more cash this weekend!

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2023 NFL Week 16 Trends To Bet: NFL Betting Trends To Back

Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

When: December 24th at 1:00 PM (ET)
Indianapolis Colts Against The Spread (ATS): 9-5 (5-2 on the road)
Atlanta Falcons Against The Spread (ATS): 4-10 (2-5 at home)

These two teams don’t face off against each other often. In fact, the last time they played was 2019. The Colts won that matchup 27-24. However, that was completely different teams.

This week sees Taylor Heinicke against Gardner Minshew. Seeing that, you’d think these teams have given up. That’s not the case, though. These teams are fighting for the playoffs. So, let’s take a look at how they match up as far as NFL Week 16 trends to bet.

We’ll start with how the Colts’ offense matches up against the Falcons’ defense. The Colts are averaging the 8th most points in the league, while the Falcons are allowing the 25th most. Ironically, the Falcons’ defense is pretty decent against the pass and run, even though they’re allowing more points.

The Colts are averaging the 18th most passing yards and the 13th most rushing yards. The Falcons’ defense is allowing the eighth least pass yards and 15th least rush yards.

On the flip side, let’s see how the Colts’ defense matches up against the Falcons’ offense. The Falcons are averaging the 26th least points per game. The Colts’ defense is averaging the 6th least.

The Falcons’ offense is averaging the 23rd least passing yards per game and 9th best rushing yards. The Colts defense is allowing an average of 14th least passing yards per game but the 26th most rush yards.

The Falcons haven’t been great at covering against the spread at home. However, the Colts are good against the spread on the road. Both these teams need a win, but I’m going with the better-coached team.

The Pick: The Colts (+2.5) win on the road.

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans

When: December 24th @ 1:00 PM (ET)
Seattle Seahawks ATS: 8-5-1 (2-5 on the road)
Tennessee Titans ATS: 6-8 (4-3 at home)

Everybody was surprised the Seahawks upset the Eagles on Monday night. If you followed this article, you weren’t, as we picked the Seahawks. The Titans have not been good this year and just lost at home in overtime to backup quarterback Case Keenum.

Will Levis is hurt, meaning we will likely have Drew Lock against Ryan Tannehill. What world are we living in right now? Let’s see what the NFL Week 16 stats to back say we should do.

The Seahawks are 18th in points per game, while the Titans are 15th in points allowed per game. The Seahawks are averaging the 15th most passing yards and the 28th worst rushing yards.

Still, there’s something inspiring about 72-year-old Pete Carroll jumping around the locker room with the players. The Titans’ defense is 22nd against the pass and 17th for rushing yards allowed.

The Titans’ offense hasn’t had the success they had hoped for with guys like Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins. They’re 27th in points per game, while the Seahawks defense is allowing the ninth least.

The Titans are 24th in passing yards per game and 18th for rushing yards. The Seahawks’ defense is allowing the 24th most passing yards per game and the 25th most rushing yards.

The fact that the Seahawks are towards the bottom of the league for yards allowed in passing and rushing but top ten in points allowed is impressive. The bend-don’t-break strategy is real for this team and they are believing, whether it’s Geno or Drew at quarterback.

The Pick: Road Favorite Seahawks (-2.5) get it done.

Detroit Lions (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings

When: December 24th @ 1:00 PM (ET)
Detroit Lions ATS: 9-5 (5-2 on the road)
Minnesota Vikings ATS: 7-4-3 (2-4 at home)

An NFC North showdown that could lock the division for the Lions if they win. Meanwhile, the Vikings are trying to keep their playoff hopes alive behind the arm of Nick Mullens.

This is another situation where one team has been good at covering on the road while the home team hasn’t been great at home. Can the Lions win in the same fashion they did against the Broncos last week? Let’s see what the NFL Week 16 stats to back say we should do.

The Vikings’ offense is averaging the 21st most points, while the Lions are allowing the 10th least. The Vikings’ strength is the passing game, where they average the seventh most per game.

They are 18th in the league for rushing yards per game. Meanwhile, the Lions are eighth against the run and 18th against the pass on a per-game average. Forcing the Vikings to win by passing with Nick Mullens could be the key to the game.

The Lions’ offense is averaging the fifth most points per game, while the Vikings are allowing the 26th most. The Lions are fourth in passing and second in rushing yards per game.

The Vikings are very middle-of-the-road against the pass, 17th in the league, and fifth in rushing yards.

If both teams stop the run and we have to trust the arm of Jared Goff or the arm of Nick Mullens, who are you picking?

Despite the Vikings’ blitz tendencies and Goff’s struggle against the blitz, I’m taking the more experienced quarterback. The Lions are on a roll and very motivated.

The Pick: Another road win, Lions (-3)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2)

When: December 24th at 4:05 PM
Jacksonville Jaguars ATS: 8-5 (5-1 on the road)
Tampa Bay Bucs ATS: 9-5 (2-4 at home) 

These teams are trending in opposite directions at this time. The Jaguars were a red-hot team to start the season but have struggled down the stretch.

Now, Trevor Lawrence may miss the game due to a concussion. The Bucs, on the other hand, have won three straight and are in control of their own destiny as far as being able to win their division. Baker Mayfield has played much better lately. Let’s see what the NFL Week 16 stats to back say we should do.

The Jaguars are putting up the 10th most points while the Bucs are allowing the 20th most. They will have to pass, which could be a problem if Lawrence misses the game and they have to rely on CJ Beathard.

The Jaguars are ninth in passing yards per game, while the Bucs are allowing the 31st most passing yards per game. That will be key, given the Jaguars are the 26th-worst team in rush yards per game while the Bucs are ninth against the run. If Lawrence is out, can Beathard get the job done on the road?

The Bucs are scoring the 20th most points per game, while the Jaguars are allowing the 12th most. The Bucs have managed to win three straight despite the fact that they’re averaging the 19th least passing yards and 29th least rushing yards per game.

The Jags, on the other hand, are allowing the 29th most passing yards and the 12th least rushing yards. This will be a battle of the Florida teams.

We can’t go off the last two times these teams played, as it was back in 2019. The Bucs won that matchup, but with four years having passed, we can’t gauge a feel of it.

I think I have to go with the home team, even though they haven’t been great at home. If this creeps up to three, I’d stay away from it, but under three, I like it.

The Pick: Bucs (-2) make it four straight wins in a row.

Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)

When: December 25th @ 8:15 PM ET
Baltimore Ravens ATS: 9-5 (5-2 on the road)

San Francisco 49ers ATS: 8-6 (3-3 at home)

What a gift from Santa, as two of the best teams face off against each other. This is the battle of the third most points per game (49ers) and fourth most (Ravens) against the defenses allowing the least (Ravens) and second to least (49ers) points per game.

These teams are both fighting to keep the number one seed in the playoffs and to get a first-round bye. Let’s see what the NFL Week 16 stats to back tell us about the game.

The 49ers offense is averaging the second most passing yards per game and the third most rushing yards. Will the Ravens’ defense, ranked seventh against the pass and tenth against the rush, focus on stopping Christian McCaffrey? Can Brock Purdy slice and dice one of the NFL’s top units?

On the other side, how will Lamar and company match up against a fast defense. They are first in rushing yards per game. However, the 49ers are third-best in stopping the run. Can the Ravens rely on the passing offense, which is 20th in the league in yards per game, against the 15th-ranked defense?

This could be a Super Bowl preview, and I think it’ll be a dogfight. No matter which team wins, this really feels like it’s going to come down to a field goal game.

The Pick: The 49ers are the better team, but 5.5 is too many points. Take the Ravens (+5.5) to cover on the road. 

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