Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for November 15.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for November 15.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games, and be sure to check out the odds at Bet365 – they give some of the best odds out there
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NBA First FG Props – November 15
Dallas Mavericks vs. Washington Wizards
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Capital One Arena – Washington, DC
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Mavericks have been quite a bit better on the jump than the Wizards. The team is 20% on the tip, with likely jumper Daniel Gafford slightly better at 25%. However, Dereck Lively II is 40% on the year and has won two of his last three jumps. The Mavericks are also shooting better right now and have better first field goal numbers as well (54.6% to 30% for the Wizards.
In the last five games, five different players have attempted the first field goal for the Mavericks, so there is no solid trend to go by. Grant Williams is one of the higher percentage shooters, going 50% from the field and from three-point. He also has a first bucket for them in the last two weeks.
First FG Bet for November 15: Grant Williams (+1000)
New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
State Farm Arena – Atlanta, Georgia
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
Both of these teams have been especially good at getting the first bucket of the game. Each has a 7-3 record on the first field goal. However, it’s the Knicks who have been far stronger on the jump. They have a similar 70% success rate on the jump, which includes a win over Clint Capela earlier this year. The Hawks are at just 40%.
So with the lean to the Knicks, we look to see who they have that score early. Despite having seven first buckets, they have just three people who have scored first. RJ Barrett has four of those seven wins, but that rate would put him on pace to beat last year’s best first bucket scorer. Assuming it regresses to the mean, I’ll take the next in line. Sharp-shooter Jalen Brunson has two early buckets and loves to fire off shots.
First FG Bet for November 15: Jalen Brunson (+550)
Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Wells Fargo Center – Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Broadcast – ESPN
The Celtics have a huge lead here on the tips. Kristaps Porzingis is snagging 70% of the tips, whereas Joel Embiid is only rocking 40%. The first bucket numbers are equally, or even more so, lopsided. The Celtics are outplaying their jump average at 80%, and the 76ers have just 30%. This should be a pretty straight forward start.
Similar to my thoughts on RJ Barrett, Jrue Holiday is dominating the early buckets at a rate that seems unsustainable. He’s riding 50% of the Celtics’ first scores right now. Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kristaps Porzingis are all also on the board for Boston. Brown is the only other with multiples, and he did take the first shot against the 76ers last time they played.
First FG Bet for November 15: Jaylen Brown (+550)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for November 15, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
