Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for November 3.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for November 3.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – November 3
New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Fiserv Forum – Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Broadcast – ESPN
The Knicks have been decent on the jump and the early bucket stats this year. Robinson is 3-2 on the year, and the Knicks have scored the first field goal every time he has won the tip. Brook Lopez is just 2-2 on the tips, and in none of those four games have the Bucks scored first. There are some trends you expect to regress back to the mean, but you can’t side with a team that is going 0-fer.
Julius Randle may be shooting a comically low field goal percentage early in the season, but he’s the inside guy for the Knicks. He gets a lot of put-back attempts, and they went to him early in the Celtics game this season. Their guards have also been streaky shooting, so let’s run with the big man here.
First FG Bet for November 3: Julius Randle (+650)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets
Tipoff – 10:00 pm EST
Ball Arena – Denver, Colorado
Broadcast – ESPN
You can’t love the looks of the Mavericks winning tips. Dereck Lively II has been taking the jumps this year and is just 1-3 on the season. That lone win came against Nikola Vucevic, who is currently winless on tips himself. Jokic hasn’t been a world-beater in that regard, either. He’s just 2-3 so far. However, the Nuggets have gone 3-2 despite those efforts. With the Bulls falling in the bottom half of opponents’ field goal percentage, we’ll lean Nuggets.
It’s a little chalky over here, but Nikola Jokic is getting the early finishes for the Nuggets. He’s put in 2 out of 3 of their first buckets. In the two games, the Nuggets didn’t score first. He had the team’s first shot in both of them, one of which went in. So he’s nabbed 60% of his teams’ first field goals and 60% of their first attempts.
First FG Bet for November 3: Nikola Jokic (+475)
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trailblazers
Tipoff – 10:00 pm EST
Moda Center – Portland, Oregon
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
While the Blazers aren’t getting a lot of the first buckets (just 2-3 on the season), they are winning the tips with new addition Deandre Ayton. He’s 4-1 on the season at getting them early looks. Ditto for the Grizzlies, who have gotten four wins in five contests from Jaren Jackson Jr. That means the difference maker here will be who can actually make a shot. The Grizzlies rank 29th in the league in field goal percentage. Although the Blazers are not terribly much better, I still will lean to them.
He hasn’t scored any of their early buckets so far, but the Blazers have trusted the ball early to Jerami Grant. He has two of the first five field goal attempts for the Blazers so far. He’s also second on the team in field goal attempts, only being Malcolm Brogdon. I’m digging the bulk approach here
First FG Bet for November 3: Jerami Grant (+550)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for November 3, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
