Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for October 30.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for October 30.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – October 30
Portland Trailblazers vs. Toronto Raptors
Tipoff -7:30 pm EST
Scotiabank Arena – Toronto, Ontario
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Raptors have played three games up until this point and have won two of the tips. Even in the game they did not win the tip, they got the first field goal, which puts them at 3-for-3 on the year. The Trailblazers have won 2-of-3 tips so far, but have just one first field goal to show for it. Neither of these teams is all that great in terms of shooting percentage this year, so we’ll lean to the team with better jump data.
If we’re looking for the best odds to get a bucket out there, I’d like to lean to the guys who work on the inside and with high shooting percentages. While his percentages have been lower this year, Pascal Siakam shot 48% from the field last year and over 32% from three point.
First FG Bet for October 30: Pascal Siakam (+650)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
FedExForum – Memphis, Tennessee
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The jump data is clear here for the early possessions. Jaren Jackson Jr. doesn’t lose many tips. He’s 3-0 this year and has the Grizzlies scoring two-thirds of the first buckets so far. The Mavericks are not even sure they know who they want taking tips. They’ve tried out two different jumpers so far, Maxi Kleber and Dereck Lively II, and neither have won a tip.
With it clear that the Grizzlies will have the first possession, I’ll lean to them getting the first bucket too. They have a bunch of shooters, but nobody is making shots more consistently than Marcus Smart. He’s shooting 53.1% and is taking nearly 11 shots a game. Plus, you have to like this fat number next to his name.
First FG Bet for October 30: Marcus Smart (+900)
Detroit Pistons vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Tipoff – 8:00 pm EST
Paycom Center – Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Broadcast – NBA TV
The young guns will be tipping off here. Chet Holmgren and Jaren Duren both have seen some success on the tips. Both teams have two first buckets in their first three games. Duren has an extra tip win (2-of-3 compared to 1-of-3), but that is due to strength in opponents. If we’re looking for a tiebreaker in all of this, the Thunder are shooting slightly better from the field, and are in the top 10 in opponents field goal percentage and top 5 in blocks. So even if the Thunder don’t win the tip, they could still get that first bucket.
It’s a little chalky, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is getting such a high percentage of the points and shots for the Thunder. At the moment, more than one out of every four shots is taken by him. I’ll ride that line here.
First FG Bet for October 30: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+500)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for October 30, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
