Some people like to sweat out a bet for 48 hard minutes – others like immediate satisfaction. Count us as being in the latter, which is why we like to get down with NBA first FG props. And we’ve decided to pass that knowledge on to you with our first FG bets for October 26.
Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for October 26.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – October 26
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Tipoff – 7:30 pm EST
Fiserv Forum – Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Broadcast – TNT
The stats on the jump ball are pretty obvious here – Brook Lopez has a massive advantage. On the pure data, he’s up nearly 13% on the success rate when compared to Joel Embiid. He went 52-25 on the first tip last year, which is an impressive number. He also managed to best Embiid on the tip in three of the four games they tipped against one another.
However, the elephant in the room is the Bucks’ style of play. While they seem like an easy pick to get the first possession, under former coach Mike Budenholzer, they just fired away threes at will. We’re unsure if they’ll play that same style under new coach Adrian Griffin, but there are some signs that they will. They threw up 51 and 52 three-pointers in their last two pre-season games, respectively, under Griffin. Last season, they averaged just over 40 attempts during the regular season.
With the Bucks shooting 36.8% from three-point last year, the odds are in favor of the 76ers getting a possession. They’re more likely to use that possession in a safe manner and get an easier bucket. So give me the down low threat for the 76ers as a chalky start to Thursday night.
First FG Bet for October 26: Joel Embiid (+400)
Phoenix Suns vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Tipoff – 10:00 pm EST
crypto.com Arena – Los Angeles, California
Broadcast – TNT
The numbers for the first possession here are really close. The Lakers won 63% of the tips last year, with the Suns taking home 68%. The Suns have seen a flip in their center thanks to the departure of Deandre Ayton and the arrival of Jusuf Nurkic. Both Nurkic and Lakers center Anthony Davis won their tips and got their teams’ respective first buckets in their first games.
While that history is nice, neither team has a history of banging the boards early. Particularly when the other team has a decent big man down there to stop the action. So, with a stalemate on that front, I’ll lean to a shooter on the outside. Taurean Prince took two of the Lakers’ first three shots last game. He ended with 18 points on four three-pointers. Let’s ride that hot hand.
First FG Bet for October 26: Taurean Prince (+1000)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for October 25, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
