What’s up, everyone? If you are unfamiliar with this post or new to the subreddit, one of the things we love to take a look at each week is the Week 2 NFL Wong Teaser betting lines that follow along with the betting strategies that Stanford Wong outlined for us regarding NFL Teasers. YES, if you look below, they don’t follow along exactly with how he set it out for us, but I have done extensive research into the historical data and outlined the reasoning for how we do it here.
If you want some more info on Wong Teasers in general, please check out this Wong Teaser Basics Article I wrote over the summer.
A great week for us last week! Unless you put way too much leverage into the Steelers like I did…I really underestimated the 49ers, I think, although Kenny did not make great throws all day.
Stay tuned, but I think I am going back to them this week, unfortunately, as home division dogs.
We have some really interesting lines this week, and if they hold up until Sunday might make really great big plays. Both the Bears and Panthers have been surprisingly REALLY good in 6 point and 10 point wong teasers over the last five years. Really hope these two hold to the criteria and we can play them.
Be sure to follow me here on Reddit as well as my Twitter for all of my updates and gambling content.
Usually, I will try and do this post on Wednesday-Friday every week of the season to help you track how they are doing and give you the lines that meet the criteria at the time of posting.
Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 2 NFL Wong Teasers
6 Point Teasers
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:
– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.
10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers.
– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
– Tease the favorite at -10, -10½
– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Week 1 Results
Below are the results from the previous week based on the closing line:
|6 Point Teaser Lines||Total||Result|
|10 Point Teaser Lines||Total||Result|
Week 2 Lines
Please note that the results posted next week may differ from what is below due to line movement.
This will show the total and the Record of that team as a 6pt teaser in the current situation this week. So if they’re an underdog, their record below will be their record as an underdog. The total is only on this chart, so you can reference it.
|6 Point Teaser Lines||Total||6pt Record since 2019|
|10 Point Teaser Lines||Total||10 pt Record since 2019|
So how do I bet these?
Typically, I will form 2-3 teasers taking in information from handicappers at the Sports Gambling Podcast Network as well as my own handicaps on teams that meet the criteria. As well as any additional trends.
|6 pt||+1 ½ thru +3||5-1||83.33%|
|6 pt||-7 ½ thru -9||0-0||0%|
|10 pt||+1 ½ thru +2 ½||3-1||75%|
|10 pt||-10 thru -10.5||0-0||0%|
If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets, continue below…
Historical Wong Teaser Stats
|6 pt||2018||+1½ thru +3||59-18||76.62%|
|6 pt||2019||+1½ thru +3||52-18||74.29%|
|6 pt||2020||+1½ thru +3||60-16||78.95%|
|6 pt||2021||+1½ thru +3||67-17||79.76%|
|6 pt||2022||+1½ thru +3||61-21||74.39%|
|6 pt||2018||-7½ thru -9||18-3||85.71%|
|6 pt||2019||-7½ thru -9||13-4||76.47%|
|6 pt||2020||-7½ thru -9||25-3||89.29%|
|6 pt||2021||-7½ thru -9||24-5||82.76%|
|6 pt||2022||-7½ thru -9||15-6||71.43%|
|10 pt||2018||+1½ thru +2½||35-3||92.1%|
|10 pt||2019||+1½ thru +2½||35-5||87.5%|
|10 pt||2020||+1½ thru +2½||34-6||85%|
|10 pt||2021||+1½ thru +2½||36-3||92.3%|
|10 pt||2022||+1½ thru +2½||48-9||84.21%|
|10 pt||2018||-10 thru -10½||10-1||90.91%|
|10 pt||2019||-10 thru -10½||10-3||76.92%|
|10 pt||2020||-10 thru -10½||8-0||100%|
|10 pt||2021||-10 thru -10½||13-0||100%|
|10 pt||2022||-10 thru -10½||9-1||90%|
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book, so yours may differ.
Weekly Wong Teaser Records 2018-2022
Regarding Game Totals < 49
Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?
From 2018-2022, here are the statistics, including playoffs:
|Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3||301-95||76.01%|
|Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)||230-67||77.44%|
|Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)||64-19||77.11%|
|Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9||86-25||77.48%|
|Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)||63-19||76.83%|
|Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)||14-7||66.67%|
Here are the results for 2023:
|Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3||5-1||83.33%|
|Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)||4-1||80%|
|Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3)||2-1||66.66%|
|Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9||0-0||0%|
|Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)||0-0||0%|
|Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9)||0-0||0%|