The United States Men’s National Team kicks off Gold Cup play on Saturday, but soccer bettors have other matches to bet. Qatar, the host of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, begins its Gold Cup campaign Sunday against Haiti, while Mexico starts against Honduras. Elsewhere, Costa Rica battles Panama, and Canada faces Guadeloupe.
Which remaining matches offer bettors a good chance to cash a ticket? Let’s dive into my two best bets for matches Sunday through Tuesday. Odds come courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and are reflective at the time of writing.
CONCACAF Gold Cup Odds, Predictions: Our Best Bets for Non-USMNT Matches
Gold Cup Prediction & Best Bet No. 1
Mexico vs. Honduras will be played in Houston. For all intents and purposes, this is a home game for Mexico, who reached the final of the 2021 Gold Cup. El Tri has thoroughly dominated Honduras in their past head-to-head meetings. The 2021 finalists have won three straight against Honduras, including a 3-0 drubbing at the 2021 tournament.
In that match, Mexico won the expected goals battle 2.11 to 0.67, per footystats.org, and the big scoring chances battle 3-0, per fotmob.com. Save for matches against the United States and eventual World Cup winners Argentina, Mexico is 4-3-0 (W-D-L) across their last seven matches.
On the flip side, Honduras enter this match in a very weak form. Los Catrachos own only one victory in their last four games and, against a Canada side much worse than Mexico, lost 1.95 to 0.98 on expected goals, again per footystats.org. Plus, over their last three matches against sides that featured in the World Cup, Honduras is 0-0-3 (W-D-L).
A friendly defeat against Venezuela doesn’t look good for Honduras, either. For those reasons, lay the goal with Mexico at -140 or better.
Mexico Goal-Line -1 (-135) vs. Honduras (1 unit)
Gold Cup Prediction & Best Bet No. 2
This is either a perfect trap or the ultimate sell-high spot. Let’s hope for the latter.
Four straight head-to-head meetings have seen the “no” side of BTTS cash. But, the underlying metrics – at least for the most recent match, a 1-0 Panama win – tell a different story. That fixture saw Panama justifiably score one goal on 1.36 expected, per footystats.org. Costa Rica, meanwhile, generated 1.16 xG on only eight shots yet failed to score.
Granted, Costa Rica created only 0.64 expected goals in the previous match, but that came in a home game for Panama. The neutral venue should provide enhanced opportunities for the Costa Rica attack, which has scored one goal off 2.81 expected in the last three matches against Panama.
Don’t expect Costa Rica’s defense to hold up. They enter this fixture having conceded at least one goal in four straight CONCACAF matches. Sample just the games against Panama, and bettors will find they’ve conceded 1.63 expected goals per 90 minutes over the last three head-to-head meetings.
Take the “yes” side of BTTS at -110 or better.
Costa Rica/Panama Both Teams to Score – “Yes” (-105, 0.75 units)
