Oh, we are back baby! The first day with a full slate of NBA games since All-Star Weekend. We went 2-2 on our last player props article looking to get in the green. Here is my favorite NBA player prop bets for today’s NBA slate.
NBA Player Prop Best Bets
Josh Green Over 1.5 3pt Made
Let’s start with the young kid Josh Green out of the University of Arizona. Green was a 1st round pick by the Mavs back in 2020 looking to make a name for himself in the NBA. I think he’s a good shooter who gets plenty of opportunity to make baskets for the Mavs.
He’s really improved his all-around game on both sides of the court and his numbers indicate that. Tonight, the Mavs will be going up against the Spurs who have the worst 3P% allowed in the league. The Spurs have allowed 8 of the last 9 players to go over their 3-point prop within the last two weeks.
Mavericks’ Josh Green working on pick-and pop 3s and trailer 3s after Wednesday’s practice. pic.twitter.com/ifvFkJ1efd
— Grant Afseth (@GrantAfseth) February 23, 2023
Green was working on his three-point shot during the All-Star break, so I do expect the Mavs to give Green plenty of opportunities to go over this number. Green is a much better shooter at home and has taken five or more threes in four straight games. At plus money, I think we can get over this number. Give me Josh Green over 1.5 3pt M.
Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 Turnovers
One of my favorite players in the league right now is Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics. What a performance he put on at the All-Star game dropping 55 points and getting the MVP of the game. But one area we can take advantage of is his turnovers.
Tatum is averaging 2.9 turnovers per game on the season and even has four in the All-Star Game. Besides the All-Star Game, Tatum has gone over this number in five straight games. The last time the Celtics played the Pacers, Tatum had two turnovers just going under this number. With his aggressiveness on the offensive end, he’s bound to continue his streak. Over 2.5 turnovers for Jayson Tatum.
Michael Porter Jr. Over 2.5 3pt Made
The Denver Nuggets are looking to keep that number 1 seed in the West coming out of the All-Star break. One guy they’re hoping to get hot in the second half of the season is their 1st round pick out of Missouri, Michael Porter Jr.
He’s had a good February averaging 19.6 points per game, shooting 46.7% from the field and 38.7% from behind the arch. Over his last 10 games, Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 3.7 3pt M on 9.6 3pt A/G. During this stretch, he has cleared this prop in eight of his last ten games. In his last game against the Cavs, he was able to knock down three 3-pointers and went over this prop.
Michael Porter Jr. follows up a fantastic chasedown block with a 3-pointer to put the #Nuggets back up 15.#MileHighBasketball pic.twitter.com/XGc9ztjvn1
— Joel Rush (@JoelRushNBA) February 16, 2023
The Cavs allow the 3rd fewest 3pt M/G but have the 10th highest Opponent 3pt%. With the amount of volume Porter has, I like him to continue to go over this prop. Over 2.5 3pt M for Michael Porter Jr.
Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 Assists
Back to Boston to talk about the other star on that team, Jaylen Brown. I loved the little back-and-forth he and Tatum had during the All-Star Game. Very fun to watch and when both of these players are on, the Celtics are a hard team to stop.
I want to take a look at Brown’s assist prop sitting at 2.5. The cover is a little chalky at -145 but sometimes the juice is worth the squeeze. In this case, it definitely is. I like the over for a few reasons.
Over his last 10 games, Brown has 3+ assists in eight of those games. The Pacers allow the 4th most assists this season. Now, Brown only recorded 2 assists the last time he faced the Pacers back in January. Last season, Brown was able to hit this in 4/4 vs the Pacers. I think he can repeat that tonight. Give me the over!
If you’d like even more information that could help your NBA DFS lineups, be sure to check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping episodes Monday through Friday every week giving out winners.