I have been tracking the progress of the 2022 rookie class since the season started. Trying to keep track of their usage and opportunities though can be a challenging task. Production doesn’t always tell the whole story and a lot of times opportunity is what allows us to predict future success. We have seen some early fantasy football impacts from several rookies in these rookie progress reports.
This class was the butt of a lot of jokes, but they are really showing some potential. We have seen Breece Hall and Dameon Pierce become weekly fantasy options. Kenneth Walker is set for a big opportunity with the Rashaad Penny injury. Furthermore, there have been several really impressive Wide Receivers so far and this class has been better than most expected. Let’s look at the last 5 weeks as well as the startup cost in these rookie progress reports.
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*I recently participated in a mock draft on October 1st for these rookie progress reports, I am going to include where rookies were drafted. This was a 12-team, 1 Quarterback dynasty startup mock draft.
Week Five Rookie Progress Reports
Pick 1.08: WR, Drake London – Atlanta Falcons
October 1st Mock Draft: 1.08
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap % | 72% | 82% | 72% | 80% | 67% |
| Targets | 7 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| Receptions | 5 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Yards | 74 | 86 | 54 | 17 | 35 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Drake London was really on fire the first couple of weeks. He has really slowed down since then. Last week we had high expectations with Kyle Pitts as well as Cordarelle Patterson out, but it was actually worse. London’s route participation was his lowest of the season at only 66% of snaps. As the offense continues to struggle, London also continues to struggle. He is not looking like a weekly starter like he did earlier this year. London’s long-term outlook remains great, but his short-term outlook is a bit bleak right now.
Pick 1.10: WR, Garrett Wilson – New York Jets
October 1st Mock Draft: 2.10
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap % | 49% | 61% | 63% | 80% | 56% |
| Targets | 8 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 4 |
| Receptions | 4 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 3 |
| Yards | 52 | 102 | 60 | 17 | 27 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Two games into the Zach Wilson era for Garrett Wilson and we have seen a big shift. Garrett Wilson also suffered a rib injury in Week Three. Wilson’s return has caused a big change for the offense. They have passed the ball less which has led to less volume for all the pass-catchers. Not only is there a smaller pizza, but Wilson is also getting a smaller piece of the pie. In Week Five Wilson was 4th on the team in air yards at only 13% while Corey Davis had 28%. Elijah Moore also had 27% of the air yards which was a repeat from Week Four. Wilson’s 19% target share was tied with Corey Davis for the team high, but that led to only 4 targets. Same story as London, the short-term outlook took a big hit in the last couple of weeks.
Pick 1.11: WR, Chris Olave – New Orleans Saints
October 1st Mock Draft: 3.07
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap % | 74% | 75% | 77% | 68% | 40% |
| Targets | 3 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 6 |
| Receptions | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 4 |
| Yards | 41 | 88 | 147 | 67 | 54 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Chris Olave is that dude. He is as good as or better than even his biggest fans expected. Olave has scored at least 13 points in a row for 4 weeks now and his worst performance was 9 points in Week One. Olave did suffer a concussion while scoring a touchdown in Week Five. Hopefully, he is okay and he might miss this week, but regardless of the Quarterback, this guy is a must-start. The outlook both short and long-term looks fantastic, he is the real deal.
Rookie WR target leaders through week 5:
????Garrett Wilson – 43
????Chris Olave – 42
????Drake London – 39
????Romeo Doubs – 29
????George Pickens – 28 pic.twitter.com/pdS8PDeGxG— Lobo’s Fantasy Football Den (@LobosFFDen) October 12, 2022
Pick 1.16: WR, Jahan Dotson – Washington Commanders
October 1st Mock Draft: 5.08
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap % | 88% | 99% | 87% | 59% | DNP |
| Targets | 5 | 5 | 8 | 4 | DNP |
| Receptions | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | DNP |
| Yards | 40 | 59 | 19 | 43 | DNP |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | DNP |
Jahan Dotson has already cashed in on his WynnBet prop for 3.5 touchdowns on the year. Dotson’s 4 touchdowns in 4 weeks is extremely impressive. Dotson has been hyperefficient though, scoring 4 touchdowns on only 13 receptions. He left the game with a hamstring injury and is expected to miss a week or two, and he didn’t play Week 5. Dotson has been one of the best values so far and that 5.08 startup cost shows that people are believing. He’s one of the big risers among these rookie progress reports.
Pick 1.18: WR, Treylon Burks – Tennesee Titans
October 1st Mock Draft: 3.03
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap % | 37% | 45% | 69% | 65% | DNP |
| Targets | 5 | 6 | 2 | 3 | DNP |
| Receptions | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | DNP |
| Yards | 55 | 47 | 13 | 14 | DNP |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | DNP |
This has been a really slow start for Treylon Burks who launched up draft boards after landing spots. Those who selected him ahead of Olave and Wilson are going to regret it (wait until they see Jameson Williams). Burks will miss some time as he was carted off with a toe injury and was already ruled out for this week. Managers will have to be patient, not every player hits the ground running. Let’s not forget that A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf had slow starts in their rookie years. Let’s hope things turn around for Burks here soon, but until then he is not touching any of your lineups. Even when he gets healthy, he has not eclipsed 5 catches and 60 yards in a game. Burks did not play Week Five and was placed on IR with a toe injury. He’s a faller in these rookie progress reports.
1.19: QB, Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
October 1st Mock Draft: 14.02
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap % | DNP | DNP | DNP | 50% | 100% |
| Pass Attempts | DNP | DNP | DNP | 13 | 52 |
| Pass Yards | DNP | DNP | DNP | 10 | 327 |
| Touchdowns | DNP | DNP | DNP | 120 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 3 | 1 | |||
| Rushes | DNP | DNP | DNP | 6 | 1 |
| Rushing Yards | DNP | DNP | DNP | 15 | 10 |
| Rushing touchdowns | DNP | DNP | DNP | 2 | 0 |
We have seen Pickett for 6 quarters now and he has yet to throw a touchdown. Pickett has also thrown 4 interceptions. For fantasy football purposes, Pickett has actually been pretty good. In 2 quarters, he had 14 points and he scored over 17 points in Week Five. Pickett also threw the ball a whopping 52 times, this is not the Mac Jones experience. He is also running the ball with 7 attempts, 25 yards, and 2 touchdowns already. Pickett has some great weapons and is someone you can stream in superflex formats right now.
Pick 2.02: WR, Christian Watson – Green Bay Packers
October 1st Mock Draft: 8.10
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap % | 66% | 32% | DNP | 25% | 29% |
| Targets | 4 | 3 | DNP | 3 | 1 |
| Receptions | 2 | 3 | DNP | 1 | 1 |
| Yards | 34 | 9 | DNP | 8 | 1 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 | DNP | 0 | 0 |
Watson was back from his injury but used moderately, only coming in on 25% of snaps and receiving only 3 targets. He is another player that launched up draft boards following the landing spot, those managers will have to continue to be patient. Watson did score a touchdown on the ground and the team does draw some plays up for him. This was a 15-yard run on a reverse that Watson took for 6 as well. Sleeper has his over and under at 1.5 receptions and 15.5 yards receiving this week. That tells you a lot about where he is at right now. Watson was limited to 2 touches before leaving with a hamstring injury and is not living up to his draft cost for dynasty managers or the Packers.
Pick 2.04: RB, Breece Hall – New York Jets
October 1st Mock Draft: 2.11
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap % | 45% | 27% | 51% | 66% | 69% |
| Rushes | 6 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 18 |
| Rush Yards | 23 | 50 | 39 | 66 | 97 |
| Targets | 10 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 2 |
| Receptions | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| Receiving Yards | 38 | 10 | 53 | 12 | 100 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
We all told you to go out and get Breece Hall, that buy low window is closed. The team is turning to Hall as he is clearly the better back. Wilson’s return wasn’t great for Garrett Wilson, but it was great for Hall. Not only did we see his rushing attempts increase, but he maintained his receiving targets. Hall received 23 touches in Week Four and then 20 touches in Week Five. Hall has amassed 275 all-purpose yards in the past 2 weeks and any type of buy window is long gone. He was really close to scoring 2 touchdowns with him being tackled on the 1-yard line, twice. Hall looks like the real deal and those who took him 1.01 are happy right now.
RBs who have faced stacked boxes at an above-average (19%) rate:
32% – Kareem Hunt
31% – Nick Chubb
28% – Rashaad Penny, Derrick Henry
27% – Jamaal Williams, Breece Hall, Antonio GibsonLow rates:
3% – Aaron Jones
6% – Cam Akers
9% – Dalvin Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Raheem Mostert— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 12, 2022
Pick 2.09: RB, Ken Walker III – Seattle Seahawks
October 1st Mock Draft: 5.05
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap % | DNP | 24% | 13% | 36% | 58% |
| Rushes | DNP | 4 | 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Rush Yards | DNP | 10 | 19 | 29 | 88 |
| Targets | DNP | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Receptions | DNP | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Receiving Yards | DNP | 5 | 14 | -5 | 0 |
| Touchdowns | DNP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Ken Walker III is trending right now and with Rashaad Penny out for the season, his dynasty stock couldn’t be any higher. Those who were patient are getting paid off, hopefully, you did not panic sell. Walker looked the part and received 100% of the RB touches after Penny left. He had a huge breakaway run that announced his arrival in the league. Walker is finally healthy and is the #1 waiver wire pickup in redrafts. He will be a must-start and a borderline RB1 this week already in his first start.
Pick 2.19: WR, George Pickens – Pittsburgh Steelers
October 1st Mock Draft: 5.03
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap % | 71% | 85% | 76% | 70% | 76% |
| Targets | 3 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| Receptions | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Yards | 3 | 23 | 39 | 102 | 83 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The change at Quarterback has done great things for George Pickens. Pickens has 6 catches and 8 targets in each game with 185 yards combined. Pickett’s not only throwing the ball more but throwing the ball down the field. Pickens looks the part and was under-drafted in rookie drafts this past Summer.
4.24: WR, Alec Pierce – Indianapolis Colts
October 1st Mock Draft: 8.01
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap % | 51% | DNP | 45% | 44% | 59% |
| Targets | 2 | DNP | 5 | 6 | 9 |
| Receptions | 4 | DNP | 3 | 4 | 8 |
| Yards | 0 | DNP | 61 | 80 | 81 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | DNP | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Pierce is a stud and should have been drafted higher in all of your dynasty leagues. This exercise monitoring progression helps monitor opportunities and future production. Pierce and Pickens are perfect examples of that, with opportunities increasing each week. His yards per target were 12.2 and 13.3 in Weeks Three and Four, both resulting in high yardage output. Pierce is getting targeted down the field and consistently getting 5+ targets. Pierce has really stepped up now healthy and his role has steadily increased. He was so good against the Broncos that they needed to move Surtain over to his side. His career highs in targets, receptions, and yards have his stock on the rise.
Pick 2.21: WR, Skyy Moore – Kansas City Chiefs
October 1st Mock Draft: 7.02
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap % | 19% | 4% | 13% | 28% | 35% |
| Targets | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| Receptions | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Yards | 30 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 15 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
This has been an ugly progression and the first 3 weeks were absolutely awful. The prime-time games put a spotlight on the ugly performances of Moore. But, this week was definitely a sign of life. Skyy had 4 targets and started to gain more trust. He only caught 2 of the targets, but his 31 yards on 2 catches was great to see. Moore was a little more involved this week, but not enough to be fantasy relevant. The Chief’s offensive looks fantastic, but Moore is still buried on the depth chart.
Pick 2.31: RB, James Cook – Buffalo Bills
October 1st Mock Draft: 10.11
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap % | 5% | 26% | 8% | 3% | 18% |
| Rushes | 1 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| Rush Yards | 2 | 53 | 3 | 0 | 31 |
| Targets | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Receptions | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Receiving Yards | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 1 |
James Cook was almost non-existent in Week 4. This has been a really messy progression for Cook that almost seems game script dependent at the moment. Cook fumbled his first touch in Week One and didn’t return. In Week Two the Bills were blowing out the Titans and he carried the ball 11 times in garbage time. The next week he was back to 1 carry, 12% of snaps, but he received 5 targets. The 5 targets were exciting, but then he gets 0 carries and 1 target in Week Four. Cook is nowhere near taking this job from Singletary and Moss is ahead of him clearly on the depth chart. Cook looked good in limited work this week and scored his first touchdown. Great to see him involved, but he is still far from the draft capital you likely spent on him.
The Buffalo Bills drafting James Cook in the 2nd round just so they could finally feature Devin Singletary is one of the more confusing storylines this year
— Justin (@Justin_14P) October 4, 2022
3.34: RB, Brian Robinson Jr., WAS
October 1st Mock Draft: 10.01
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap % | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | 29% |
| Rushes | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | 9 |
| Rush Yards | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | 22 |
| Targets | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | 0 |
| Receptions | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | 0 |
| Receiving Yards | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | 0 |
| Touchdowns | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | 0 |
Brian Robinson returned and it was great to see. He was on a pitch count and this appeared to be a full-blown committee. All three Running Backs played less than 50% of the snaps. Neither of the 3 backs had double-digit fantasy points either. Robinson had 9 carries to Gibson’s 3 carries, but Mckissic had 7 targets to Robinson’s 0. Robinson’s long-term outlook looks great, but you might have to wait and see for now.
3.27: RB, Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
October 1st Mock Draft: 9.03
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap % | 29% | 62% | 59% | 38% | 39% |
| Rushes | 11 | 15 | 20 | 3 | 5 |
| Rush Yards | 33 | 69 | 80 | 6 | 14 |
| Targets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 |
| Receptions | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| Receiving Yards | 6 | 8 | 21 | 50 | 28 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
This was a mini breakout for White as he was getting worked into the game quite a bit. The week before, Fournette had 87% of the snaps and almost all of the RB touches. This week we saw Rachaad White being rotated in on full drives, getting targets, and goal-line touches as well. White’s 5 receptions for 50 yards is very promising in a pass-friendly offense with a Quarterback that has been known to check it down. White looks to have worked his way into a pass-catching role with 9 targets and 8 receptions in 2 weeks now. Fournette still has a stranglehold on the starting job though. White is someone I would target before it is too late, he is one injury away from a huge opportunity. Fournette is under contract in 2023 as well, but the team could turn to White if Brady walks away.
4.02: RB, Dameon Pierce – Houston Texans
October 1st Mock Draft: 6.06
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap % | 29% | 62% | 59% | 68% | 79% |
| Rushes | 11 | 15 | 20 | 14 | 26 |
| Rush Yards | 33 | 69 | 80 | 131 | 99 |
| Targets | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Receptions | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| Receiving Yards | 6 | 8 | 21 | 8 | 14 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
In the last three weeks he has 20+ touches in each game, like Breece Hall this is very exciting. Week Five really proved that Pierce is the real deal, he had a Marshawn Lynch-Esque run for a 69-yard touchdown. Pierce has had 100 plus all-purpose yards in 3 straight weeks with a touchdown in each game. Pierce’s value continues to increase, but he might be a sell-high candidate among these rookie progress reports.
4.24: WR, Romeo Doubs – Green Bay Packers
October 1st Mock Draft: 7.06
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap % | 57% | 37% | 89% | 96% | 86% |
| Targets | 5 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
| Receptions | 4 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| Yards | 37 | 27 | 73 | 47 | 29 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Romeo Doubs is definitely showing that he was not all hype. The trust continues to grow and you can see that with 89% and 96% of snaps the team wants him on the field. Most importantly, Aaron Rodgers has targeted him 8 times in each of the last 2 weeks. Gaining the trust of #12 is crucial and he has done this so far. He looks great and looks like the Packer’s #1 WR as predicted by some beat writers this summer. Doubs also scored another touchdown this week and has been a popular redzone target. Doubs almost caught a 50-yard touchdown pass that was very controversial in Week Four as well. Week Five was a lot less impressive for Doubs and the Packers though in general. They had an embarrassing loss to the New York Giants too and this might be a good opportunity to acquire Doubs.
5.08: RB, Tyler Allgeier – Atlanta Falcons
October 1st Mock Draft: 14.04
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap % | DNP | 31% | 37% | 44% | 59% |
| Rushes | DNP | 10 | 6 | 10 | 13 |
| Rush Yards | DNP | 25 | 30 | 84 | 45 |
| Targets | DNP | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Receptions | DNP | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Receiving Yards | DNP | 0 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| Touchdowns | DNP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Allgeier took over for Cordarelle Patterson who was out, but he did share his duties. In Week Four, Allgeier had 11 touches and Caleb Huntley had 10 touches. Huntley got the touchdown, but Allgeier doubled his yardage output as well as was out there running routes. In Week Five, we got to see Allgeier in a lead role and it didn’t result in much fantasy production. However, this was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and he wouldn’t be the only running back to struggle against them. He, unfortunately, gets the 49ers this week and Patterson comes back soon. He’s a sell among the rookie progress reports.
7.30: RB, Isiah Pacheco, KC
October 1st Mock Draft: 11.12
| Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | |
| Snap % | 23% | 9% | 9% | 21% | 3% |
| Rushes | 12 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| Rush Yards | 62 | 6 | 9 | 63 | 0 |
| Targets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Receptions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Receiving Yards | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fantasy Twitter had hyped him up all offseason and that has not come to a head yet. Before Week Four, Pacheco looked really good, and twice this season we have seen him get 10+ carries. He had 5.17 and 5.73 yards per carry in each of those games. Unfortunately, that led to no targets in any of those games and Mckinnon was heavily involved. This week he was almost not involved at all and this could be a buy-low opportunity. I would definitely target him especially if I were a CEH manager.
Draft Results for Players not Appearing in Rookie Progress Reports
WR, Jameson Williams, DET – 4.11
WR, Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG -9.12
RB, Tyrion Davis-Price, SF – 12.04
WR, David Bell, CLE – 12.05
RB, Zamir White, LVR – 13.02
RB, Isaiah Spiller, LAC – 13.11
WR, Kyle Phillips, TEN – 14.01
TE, Daniel Bellinger, NYG – 14.07
TE, Isaiah Likely, BAL – 14.11
WR, Khalil Shakir, BUF – 15.03
RB, Jaylen Warren, PIT – 15.09
TE, Jelani Woods, IND – 16.04
RB, Jerome Ford, CLE – 16.10
WR, Jalen Tolbert, DAL – 17.09
WR, Tyquan Thornton, NE -17.11
RB, Kyren Williams, LAR – 17.12
TE, Trey McBride, AZ – 18.01
QB, Malik Willis, TEN – 18.02
RB, Hassan Haskins, TEN – 18.03
TE, Greg Dulcich, DEN – 18.06
RB, Ty Chandler, MIN – 19.03
WR, Velus Jones, CHI – 19.07
RB, Jordan Mason, SF – 19.12
RB, Trestan Ebner, CHI – 20.01
TE, Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN – 20.12
Let me know if you want feedback on any other players and thank you for checking out this rookie progress report. There were a few more rookies that got some play on Sunday, but there really were not many other notable performances.
