Fantasy Football Bold Takes. Every year, fantasy football “experts” put them out. It’s one of the most fun times of the season because it’s the one opportunity you have to lay out a take without dealing with the consequences of the Twittersphere for being “wrong.” I put out some bold takes last year and did pretty well. Let’s review:
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Fantasy Football: Final Bold Takes
Derek Carr will be a top 10 QB
He was in the 12-15 range in most scoring formats, but the guy threw for 4800 yards.
Joe Mixon will lead all RBs in touches
He finished third among RBs behind Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris.
Mike Williams will be a WR1
In most scoring formats, he was in the ten range.
QB Bold Take – Derek Carr will lead the league in passing yards
Maybe this isn’t the boldest of takes. Last season he finished 5th in yardage behind Brady, Herbert, Stafford, and Mahomes. In a season where Carr had Darren Waller for only 11 games and had to lean on Hunter Renfrow all season, to see the finished 5th in yardage was absolutely crazy to me. His leading receiver had only 1038 yards. Bring in Davante Adams, Darren Waller healthy, and Hunter Renfrow running the slot, I just see an opportunity ripe for the taking to be the league leader in passing yards and a potential MVP candidate.
RB Bold Take – Javonte Williams will lead all RB’s in rushing TD’s
Here is a list of the running backs that led the league in TDs over the last five years
2021 – Jonathan Taylor with 18
2020 – Derrick Henry with 17
2019 – Derrick Henry with 16
2018 – Todd Gurley with 17
2017 – Todd Gurley with 13
Every one of these teams ranked in the top 12 in passing TDs as well, with 12, 8, 8, 9, and 7, respectively. Insert Russel Wilson. Over Russ’ career, he has averaged the 9th ranked passing offense. Oddly close. I believe, and even Melvin Gordon believes, Javonte Williams is the primary back on the team, and he should smash the competition.
— F L ⚡️ S H (@Melvingordon25) August 17, 2022
WR Bold Take – Allen Robinson will be the WR1 overall
If I’m honest, I almost changed this with the Matthew Stafford elbow news, but I’m sticking to my guns. WR1 overall over the past five seasons:
2021 Cooper Kupp – 145/1947/16
2020 Davante Adams – 115/1553/11
2019 Michael Thomas – 149/1725/9
2018 Tyreek Hill – 87/1276/15
2017 Antonio Brown – 101/1533/9
Okay, so based on the above, yardage and catches vary, but the key is they were all top 3 in TD totals. Yes, they need to have some baseline of catches and yardage, so let’s set those at the average. So in order to be a frontrunner for the WR1 overall, here is the proposed statline:
119 Catches, 1406 yards, and 12 TDs
In Allen Robinson’s four fully healthy seasons, he averaged the following
88 catches, 1170 yards, and 8 TDs
So he needs to see roughly 30 more catches, 230 more yards, and four more TDs to be considered.
Insert Matthew Stafford, who in his first year with Cooper Kupp improved on his average stats by over double in all categories to include receptions, yardage, first downs, and touchdowns. I believe Kupp will regress closer to his mean, and Allen Robinson will be the defacto leading receiver in Los Angeles. Our man Scott Simpson believes he is a target as well; read his article here.
TE Bold Take – Zach Ertz will be the overall TE1 in 2022
This is a little bit of a regression take, but for a guy who is coming off the board as the TE9 in redraft just doesn’t sit well with me and screams VALUE!
2021 Rankings with Arizona
2nd in TE Targets
4th in Fantasy Points per Game
Tied for 1st in TE RedZone Targets
ONLY 3 touchdowns with Arizona!
If he stays on par with everything else, which with no DeAndre Hopkins he should, he is an absolute smash and should return to his top-tier TE status.
