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Thrive Fantasy’s Super Bowl Contest Preview and Picks

Thrive's Fantasy Super Bowl Contest Preview and Picks

Thrive Fantasy’s Super Bowl Contest Preview and Picks

Here we are, Super Bowl bound!  It’s the last NFL betting opportunity of the 2021-22 season.  Right now, you might be sitting there trying to think of all the different ways you can bet on the big game!  The amount of money placed on the big game is expected to reach over $8 billion and you don’t want to miss out.  But before you go spending all your bankroll guessing the color of Gatorade, you have to check out Thrive Fantasy’s Super Bowl Contest.

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What Is Thrive Fantasy?

The thing that makes Thrive Fantasy so awesome is that the contests combine both a DFS feeling and prop bets.  Contestants choose the over or under on 10 prop bets that they get to select.  Thrive Fantasy’s Super Bowl Contest contains 20 prop bet options.  On top of your 10 prop bets, you’ll pick two more bets, called ICE bets.  An ICE bet is an in case of emergency bet.  The idea behind those is if one of the players you picked for a prop bet doesn’t play, you’ll have two backup option props that will swap in if needed.  Props are weighted by a set amount of points.  The more unlikely the prop is to hit, the more points it is worth.

Thrive Fantasy’s Super Bowl Contest

This year, Thrive Fantasy’s Super Bowl Contest has a $100,000 prize pool!  Entry is $25 and first place pays $20,000.  Not confident you can hit first?  That’s okay!  If you place between 341st and 1040th place you still get $30, giving you profit.  Here’s the complete prize payout as of this writing.

1st Place $20,000
2nd Place $10,000
3rd Place $5,000
4th – 5th Place $2,500
6th – 9th Place $1,500
10th – 15th Place $1,000
16th – 25th Place $500
26th – 40th Place $250
41st – 70th Place $100
71st – 140th Place $75
141st – 340th Place $50
341st – 1040th Place $30


Now let’s take a look at some of the props you can choose from and the over or under that I like.  And don’t forget if you don’t have a Thrive account yet, you can get one here.

Cooper Kupp Over/Under 7.5 Receptions

We’ll start with Cooper Kupp, who took the fantasy world by storm this year.  Thrive Fantasy’s Super Bowl contest has Kupp’s prop bet set at over/under 7.5 receptions.  If you pick the over and hit it, it’s worth 75 points.  If you pick the under and hit it, it’s 125 points.  Kupp went over 7.5 receptions in two of his three playoff games.  The Bengals have allowed over 7 receptions to a single pass-catcher only once in the playoffs.  That happened to be tight end Travis Kelce.  Still, you can’t help but think McVay is going to want to get the ball to Kupp early and often.  He’s been matchup proof and hard for anybody to guard all season.  Kupp eclipsed 7.5 receptions in 10 of his 17 games this year.

My pick:  Over 7.5 Receptions – 75 Points

Joe Mixon Over/Under 0.5 Total TD’s (Rush + Rec TDs)

With all the hype you’ll hear about the Bengals passing game, Joe Mixon gets a little overshadowed.  Still, Mixon had his best statistical year in yards, rushing touchdowns, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.  I know Mixon only has one touchdown in the playoffs through three games and the Rams have a tough defensive line.  However, Mixon scored at least one touchdown in 11 of 16 games this year.  In five of those games, he had more than one touchdown.  I think in order to limit the Rams offense the Bengals are going to have to lean on the run and control the clock.  The Rams have allowed three rushing touchdowns in the playoffs.  Thrive Fantasy’s Super Bowl contest only needs Mixon to score one touchdown to hit the over.

My pick:  Over 0.5 Total Touchdowns – 70 Points

Van Jefferson Over/Under 2.5 Receptions

After Robert Woods was injured, it looked like Van Jefferson would be the guy.  Until this receiver named Odell Beckham Jr. showed up.  Still, Jefferson has had some flashes of play-making ability with some very big plays, but the receptions haven’t been there consistently, especially in the playoffs.  Thrive Fantasy’s Super Bowl Contest has him set at over/under 2.5 receptions.  He hasn’t had more than two catches in any of the playoff games.  He was under 2 catches in 7 of 17 games in the regular season.  He’s also been under 2 catches half of the games since Odell was acquired.  The number is set at the exact right spot, making it a tough call.  However, taking two lower-valued picks in my first two, I wanted something that would be split a little more evenly at 100 points for both over and under.

My pick:  Under 2.5 Total Receptions – 100 Points

Joe Burrow Over/Under 282.5 Passing Yards

Few quarterbacks, if any, have had the swagger Joe Burrow has had this year.  He’s had a great comeback from the horrific leg injury in 2020.  Thrive Fantasy’s Super Bowl Contest has Burrow’s passing yards at over/under 282.5 yards.  It may seem like easy money to just hammer the over on his passing yards.  However, he’s only eclipsed 282 yards once this post-season.  Furthermore, the Rams have only allowed one passer over 282 yards in the playoffs.  And that was some guy named Tom Brady.  While it’s easy to remember how Burrow combined for 971 yards in his last two regular-season games, he only eclipsed 282 six times this year.  Burrow faces arguably the best defensive line he has all year, and I don’t think he’ll have the time to sit back and sling bombs all day.

My pick:  Under 282.5 Passing Yards – 100 Points

Cam Akers Over/Under 62.5 Total Rush Yards

Speaking of great comeback stories, Cam Akers has also come back quicker than expected from a bad leg injury.  Thrive Fantasy’s Super Bowl contest has his prop bet set at over/under 62.5 rushing yards.  This seems a little high since Akers hasn’t gone over 62.5 yards yet this postseason.  The Bengals however, have allowed over 62 rushing yards to a running back in all three playoff games.  Akers is splitting carries with Michel, and I don’t feel he’s found his rhythm yet.  I think this line reflects more of game flow if you believe the Rams can get up early and then grind the clock.

My pick:  Under 62.5 Total Rush Yards – 100 Points

Matt Stafford Over/Under 27.5 Completions

What a year for Matt Stafford, who has performed pretty well statistically every year, but finally landed on a team that helped him turn those stats into success.  Thrive Fantasy’s Super Bowl contest has his prop set at over/under 27.5 completions.  Stafford’s last two playoff games have exceeded 27.5 completions, while the wild card round saw him only complete 13 of 17 passes.  However, during the regular season, Stafford only went over 27.5 completions twice.  If you think the Rams will get up early, keep the lead, and control the clock, this one is a no-brainer.

My pick:  Under 27.5 completions – 90 Points

Odell Beckham Jr. Over/Under 60.5 Receiving Yards

Reaching his first Super Bowl, Odell Beckham Jr. went from free agent to wide receiver two on a playoff-contending team quickly.  Thrive Fantasy’s Super Bowl contest has his prop set at over/under 60.5 yards.  If you’re the Bengals, you’re going to do everything you can to limit Cooper Kupp.  And while that contradicts my Van Jefferson prediction of under 2.5 receptions, I think trying to limit Kupp, boosts Beckham’s upside.  Since joining the Rams, Beckham has only exceeded 60.5 receiving yards twice in eight regular-season games.  Will he be the Beckham that made a catch nobody has stopped talking about?  Or will he be the Beckham that fights kicking nets?  We will soon find out, but I think he’s matured more than some give him credit for.

My pick:  Over 60.5 Receiving Yards – 95 Points

Evan McPherson Over/Under 9.5 Total Points

Who doesn’t love a good kicking prop?  Not to mention, kicker Evan McPherson has been on a heater.  Thrive Fantasy’s Super Bowl contest is set at over/under 9.5 total kicking points.  Through the postseason McPherson has been 4/4 in field goals in EACH game, as well as perfect on extra points.  He exceeded 9.5 kicking points nine times in 16 games this year.  This includes closing the season with going over 9.5 kicking points six out of his last seven games.

My Pick:  Over 9.5 Total Kicking Points – 80 Points

Tyler Boyd Over/Under 4.5 Receptions

While I expect most to zig when it comes to Tyler Boyd, I’m going to choose to zag.  Yes, I know he hasn’t gone over four receptions in the postseason.  In fact, he hasn’t gone over four receptions since Week 15.  Thrive Fantasy’s Super Bowl Contest has his over/under receptions set at 4.5.  This seems too easy to take the under, therefore my gut is telling me to take the over.  Ramsey will work on limiting Jamar Chase.  After two solid games against the Chiefs and the Titans, the Rams defense won’t take Higgins lightly either.  I think this will give slot receiver Boyd some advantages.  I also feel Burrow may have to make some quick throws due to defensive pressure.  That may require him to look at the slot position more often.

My Pick:  Over 4.5 Receptions – 125 points

Ja’Marr Chase Over/Under 80.5 Total Receiving Yards

Nobody expected the season Ja’Marr Chase has had this year.  The rookie has been elite all year. But, Sunday’s Super Bowl could end up being a tough game as Jalen Ramsey will most likely shadow him.  Thrive Fantasy’s Super Bowl Contest has Chase set at over/under 80.5 total receiving yards.  Chase has exceeded 80.5 receiving yards in two of three playoff games.  Surprisingly though, for how great his season has been, he’s only gone over that mark six times in seventeen regular-season games.  And while Ramsey may not be as elite as he used to be, he’s still a very solid cornerback.  He’s allowed over 80.5 receiving yards only twice all year.  Sure, the two times have been in the last three games, but I expect him to step up to prove he can stop the young rookie.

My Pick:  Under 80.5 Receiving Yards – 115 points.

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Those are my picks for Thrive Fantasy’s Super Bowl Contest.  If all hit, the point total would be 950 points.  Don’t forget you can sign up for Thrive here.  Good luck!


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Born and raised in Iowa, Justin Mark is an avid Chicago Bears fan. He is a self-published author and loves writing almost as much as he loves sports, especially football. Whether it's the NFL, College Football, CFL, or spring football, he loves all football. He lives in the small town of Winterset, IA with his wife and their dog and cat. Justin is co-host of SGPN's Fantasy Football show "Old-Fashioned Football", cohost of an NFL Gambling Podcast, and the XFL Gambling Podcast.