Another 100% week! Really bounced back after a couple of rough weeks there, but we can bounce back with our Week 14 teasers.
If you were to bet 1u on a 6 team teaser the past 2 weeks you would be up 11u! Probably more than enough to make up for the Week 10 and 11 fiasco.
This week we have a lot of low totals which have great returns for Wong teasers. But this week I will be avoiding the Seahawks and Chargers. I still don’t trust either team and personally, I don’t think the Chargers should ever be 10 points favorites at home. I also want to give Russ 1 more week to see if he is actually back or if last week was a fluke.
Let’s keep the train rolling with another 100% week though!
Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 14
6 Point Teasers
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers in Week 14 is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:
– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.
NOTE: The original Wong Criteria do not include +3 or -9 but this is how the post was done previously so we will continue to use them. Over the past 3 years, it has only made a difference of about 1.5% to include those.
It is not recommended to tease game totals
The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.
Sweetheart Teasers
10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). Favorites from -10 to -10.5 in a 10 point teaser have a record of 36-8 (87.8%) and -12 to -12.5 have been a perfect 11-0. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2020, I’ve decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:
– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
– Tease the favorite at -10, -10½
– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Historical Wong Teaser Stats
| Teaser | Year | Spread | Record | Win % |
| 6 pt | 2017 | +1½ thru +3 | 62-19 | 76.54% |
| 6 pt | 2018 | +1½ thru +3 | 55-17 | 76.39% |
| 6 pt | 2019 | +1½ thru +3 | 51-17 | 75% |
| 6 pt | 2020 | +1½ thru +3 | 55-12 | 82.09% |
| 6 pt | 2017 | -7½ thru -9 | 24-7 | 77.42% |
| 6 pt | 2018 | -7½ thru -9 | 17-3 | 85% |
| 6 pt | 2019 | -7½ thru -9 | 11-4 | 73.33% |
| 6 pt | 2020 | -7½ thru -9 | 23-3 | 88.46% |
| 10 pt | 2017 | +1½ thru +2½ | 34-7 | 82.93% |
| 10 pt | 2018 | +1½ thru +2½ | 32-3 | 91.43% |
| 10 pt | 2019 | +1½ thru +2½ | 33-5 | 86.84% |
| 10 pt | 2020 | +1½ thru +2½ | 31-5 | 86.11% |
| 10 pt | 2017 | -10 thru -10½ | 8-1 | 88.89& |
| 10 pt | 2018 | -10 thru -10½ | 10-1 | 90.91% |
| 10 pt | 2019 | -10 thru -10½ | 10-3 | 76.92% |
| 10 pt | 2020 | -10 thru -10½ | 8-0 | 100% |
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ as you place your Week 14 teasers.
Weekly Wong Teaser Records 2017-2020
| Week | Record | Win % |
| 1 | 23-2 | 92% |
| 2 | 18-5 | 78.26% |
| 3 | 24-3 | 88.89% |
| 4 | 18-7 | 72% |
| 5 | 18-2 | 90% |
| 6 | 19-7 | 73.08% |
| 7 | 15-6 | 71.43% |
| 8 | 12-3 | 80% |
| 9 | 17-7 | 70.83% |
| 10 | 16-1 | 94.12% |
| 11 | 15-9 | 62.5% |
| 12 | 18-4 | 81.82% |
| 13 | 18-5 | 78.26% |
| 14 | 22-9 | 70.97% |
| 15 | 18-4 | 81.82% |
| 16 | 18-4 | 81.82% |
| 17 | 11-6 | 64.7% |
Week 13 Results
| Closing Spread | 6 Point | 10 Point |
| Patriots +2.5 | WIN | WIN |
| Cardinals -7.5 | WIN | |
| Colts -10 | WIN | |
| Chargers +2.5 | WIN | WIN |
| Bucs -10.5 | WIN | |
| WFT +2 | WIN | WIN |
| Seahawks +2.5 | WIN | WIN |
| Chiefs -8.5 | WIN |
2021 Results
| Teaser | Line | Record | Win % |
| 6 pt | +1 ½ thru +3 | 49-15 | 76.56% |
| 6 pt | -7 ½ thru -9 | 13-2 | 86.67% |
| 10 pt | +1 ½ thru +2 ½ | 29-2 | 93.55% |
| 10 pt | -10 thru -10.5 | 9-2 | 81.82% |
| Week | Record | Win % |
| 1 | 4-3 | 92% |
| 2 | 4-0 | 100% |
| 3 | 9-0 | 100% |
| 4 | 5-2 | 71.43% |
| 5 | 8-2 | 80% |
| 6 | 5-1 | 83.33% |
| 7 | 4-1 | 80% |
| 8 | 3-0 | 100% |
| 9 | 4-0 | 100% |
| 10 | 3-4 | 42.86% |
| 11 | 1-3 | 25% |
| 12 | 7-0 | 100% |
| 13 | 6-0 | 100% |
As of Wednesday, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:
| Wednesday Spread | Total | 6pt Teaser Record since 2017 | 10pt Record |
| Steelers +3 | 43.5 | 5-2 | |
| Falcons +2.5 | 42.5 | 11-2 | 11-2 |
| Ravens +2.5 | 42 | 5-2 | 5-2 |
| Titans -8.5 | 44 | 5-0 | |
| Seahawks -7.5 | 41.5 | 0-4 | |
| Chargers -10 | 44 | 1-0 | |
| Broncos -8 | 42 | 1-0 | |
| Rams +3 | 51.5 | 4-3 |
If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets continue below…
Regarding Game Totals < 49
Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?
From 2017-2020, here are the statistics including playoffs:
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 | 235-71 | 76.8% |
| Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 183-54 | 77.22% |
| Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 94-14 | 87% |
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 | 82-18 | 82% |
| Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 66-16 | 80.49% |
| Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 17-2 | 89.47% |
If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong’s original criteria is home favorites):
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 | 15-16 | 78.67% |
| Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 47-15 | 75.8% |
| Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 14-2 | 87.5% |
Here is where we will track this stat for 2021:
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 | 45-15 | 76.56% |
| Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 34-9 | 79.07% |
| Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 6-3 | 66.67% |
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 | 13-2 | 86.67% |
| Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 11-1 | 91.67% |
| Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 1-0 | 100% |
How to Bet These Games
There have been lots of questions and comments on how to bet these Wong teasers. I think there was some thought that doing a Round Robin of 2 or 3 team teasers of the matching games would be ideal. I am not convinced that makes sense.
For example, there are 6 matching in a certain week and only 1 team lost their tease. If you had done a round-robin of 2 team teasers from those 6 matching games, you would have 15 possible teaser bets. In this scenario, if you had 5 out of 6 teams that won their tease, then you would be profitable. If only 4 out of 6 had won their tease, then you would have not broken even.
I think the recommendation is to pick and choose teams that match our criteria (and any other information you use to make an informed bet) and put those into a 2 or 3 team teaser bet. Week 14 is another great opportunity to use the Wong teaser and win big with your teasers.
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