After a disastrous performance at UFC Vegas 33, my heater is over. But it’s back up on the horse and time to start a new winning streak with this week’s UFC 265 pay-per-view, beaming around the world from Houston, Texas. Here are my winning UFC 265 predictions.
UFC 265 Predictions
All odds courtesy of PointsBet
Ciryl Gane (-375) vs Derrick Lewis
While I’m going with the chalk in Ciryl Gane, -375 odds for a heavyweight fight is dangerous. Especially with the firepower coming back across the cage from Gane on Saturday via Derrick Lewis. But I’m betting on Gane’s well-rounded game, length, and patience to win this fight and set himself up for a shot at UFC Heavyweight Champion Francis Ngannou.
Jose Aldo (-120) vs Pedro Munhoz
I am by no means expect much from former featherweight god Jose Aldo, but I think he can get the job done in this bantamweight bout against Pedro Munhoz. Aldo has the length, the striking, and the defense to take care of Munhoz, who, despite his ‘The Young Punisher’ moniker, is 34-years-old, just like Aldo.
Vicente Luque (-120) vs Michael Chiesa
Michael Chiesa has been on fire since moving up to welterweight, winning all four of his fights at 170 pounds. However, I expect that hot streak to stop on Saturday at the hands (and feet and knees and elbows) of Vicente Luque. Chiesa relies solely on grappling to win his fights, and I think Luque can light him up on the feet.
Angela Hill (+112) vs Tecia Torres
Time to get some plus money. While Tecia Torres has already beaten Angela Hill once, that was six years ago. Hill has the striking and grappling stats in her favor, as well as being the bigger fighter of the two. Sounds like the makings of a live dog to me.
Casey Kenney (-120) vs Song Yadong
Back to the favorites in Casey Kenney. Kenney has the striking and grappling stats in his corner, and is very durable, having never been finished in a fight. Look for him to bounce back from his close loss to Dominick Cruz in his last fight and get back on a winning streak.
Rafael Fiziev (-325) vs Bobby Green
This prelim main event could be a very exciting fight. I’m going with the younger man, as per usual, in Rafael Fiziev. The former professional kickboxer has won three straight fights, the last via knockout, and should be able to overpower Bobby Green on the feet.
Drako Rodriguez (-120) vs Vince Morales
I’m not backing Drako Rodriguez because his nickname is ‘The Great Drakolini’, but that certainly doesn’t hurt his case in my eyes. He’s the younger fighter and the better grappler, which I think he can ride to victory against Vince Morales. That and leg kicks, which have been Morales’s downfall in past fights.
Alonzo Menifield (-250) vs Ed Herman
Ed Herman is 40-years-old, with plenty of wear on his tires, so I’m backing the younger, more athletic Alonzo Menifield. Menifield’s explosive power might even be worth a knockout prop bet.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (-125) vs Jessica Penne
This is a tough one to pick, as Karolina Kowalkiewicz has lost four straight and has been on the sidelines since February 2020, pondering retirement. But Jessica Penne has only fought once since 2017 after serving a four-year drug ban, so there’s not much to go on there either. I’m going with KK due to her superior striking.
Ode’ Osbourne (+165) vs Manel Kape
I’m taking a stab at a pretty sizable dog in Ode’ Osbourne in this flyweight tilt, but I like his size (he’s fought at featherweight in the UFC) and finishing ability, while I’m concerned about Manel Kape’s passivity and fight IQ shown in his 0-2 UFC run.
Miles Johns (-225) vs Anderson Dos Santos
Miles Johns is one of the brightest prospects in the bantamweight division, and has the youth and striking to take care of Anderson Dos Santos in his early prelim fight.
Victoria Leonardo (-110) vs Melissa Gatto
Victoria Leonardo is basically a pick ’em in this fight against Melissa Gatto, who is making her UFC debut and has been on the shelf since 2018. Leonardo should be able to keep this one a striking battle, where she has the superior skills.
Johnny Munoz Jr. (-250) vs Jamey Simmons
Two UFC fighters looking for their first win inside the octagon kick things off on Saturday night. Johnny Munoz Jr. is the better fighter of the two, so he’s the pick.
Overall Record: 471-388
Return on Investment: -(11.3)%
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