Euro 2020 Knockout Stage Predictions
The guys are talking soccer with their Euro 2020 Knockout Stage predictions with help from the host of the Soccer Gambling Podcast Billi Bhatti (@SGPSoccer). The guys give out their best bets for Euro 2020 tournament. Billi gives some insight into the best Euro 2020 betting strategies and the emergence of Soccer Sean.
Euro 2020 Odds & Bracket
Podcast Timecodes
Podcast Video
Podcast Transcription
Speaker 0 (1m 24s): Welcome everyone to the sports game on podcasts. I’m Sean stack and the money gram with my partner and pigs Ryan real money Kramer what’s happened in dog. I’ve shared
Speaker 3 (1m 34s): This with the Twitters Twitter sphere already, but it is 2021, June 25th. And this is now one day removed from a day where Sean came into the office and said, Hey, can we turn on the soccer game for the third day in a row? Just to find out there was no soccer and he was sad. Hopefully your dad’s not listening Sean now, because you have become a soccer talking
Speaker 0 (1m 59s): About soccer, Sean. Well, listen, the Sixers are out tries. I might, I can’t, I can’t bite into baseball at them. I’m dabble with soccer. I still, I know it’s Euro 2020. I wish they would figure out how to get the United States in maybe, maybe our women’s team. They play well, send them over there. I mean, we got art. Most of our players, Europeans, like, come on, throw them in Euro, taurine, taurine. I want to fill out a bracket and we actually, we do have a bracket now because we’re moving on to the group stage. We are going to be doing a deep dive Euro, 2020 picks.
Oh man. So much, so much to get into. But before we do that, make sure we get to shout out our presenting sponsor. Win bet. That’s right. When bet is bringing you the action of real sports betting with the wind Las Vegas experience, get in on all your favorite teams, players, and games, generous promos, odds, and parlays. They’re all happening right now. And when bets spin that parlay, we’ll let it ride get started. Daniel, receive a offer up to $500 in a risk free Sportsbet terms and conditions apply.
Get the details@wyandnbet.com and download the app today, Ryan, we are we’re talking soccer. So of course we’re going to be joined by the host of the soccer, gambling podcasts. You know him, you love them the one and only Billy Billy. Thanks for, thanks for calling in. Thanks for joining us. How has your Euro 2020 going so far?
Speaker 4 (3m 27s): It’s gone. Well, the only, the only disappointment we’ve had was it Spain didn’t win the group, but we have futures all sitting in positions to win. So I’m doing that thing, which you guys really hate, which is we’re looking at how to hedge some of this stuff that we do end up with a profit because we do ’em on my side and we do sports in investing. We don’t do sports gambling. I work on the, the soccer investing podcast, but yeah, that that’s kind of the position or when a really good position to make some, some hedges, because it would be a shame to let this all go into pot now.
But I mean, I don’t see it. The teams that we need to go through to the quarter finals with Italy, Spain, Holland, I’m not seeing any, any losses in this match up B the interest in me is still what it is at the beginning. The tournament stars. Now we’ve lost eight teams out 24. It’s pretty much meaningless that beginning space, other than for the small countries getting to participate. And obviously from a bank perspective where we’ve navigated ourselves into pop-rock into a profit position, but now the tournament really starts all the, all the big favorites from the beginning.
I was still where we haven’t lost anybody and it’s still wide open. The market is hardly changed. All we know now is that we have a draw where 16 teams are going to be whittled down to eight and announce a four. And we know potentially what a final can be and what the final carpets. So we are kind of for American guys, we have a kind of divide where, you know, you had two, two possible, two possible hops. And if England,
Speaker 3 (5m 2s): Germany is the AFC, I’m just going there because I think the AFC is going to be weaker this year, maybe strong near the top, but we overall one thing that stood out to me and Sean and I even discussed soccer futures in the office yesterday. I don’t recall that you see England, Germany and the Netherlands all clumped together there, and then no one else by a mile. I see Denmark there, maybe the next, what team? I it’s interesting to make them. I know a lot of people were having them get to the round of eight.
I see why now, but it still stood out to me that I said, what to you. I said, it seems like we should all go to the window. And I know we’ll talk about each game, but we should all go to the window and bet the Netherlands right now at plus eight 50, get some touch action.
Speaker 4 (5m 49s): Maybe that one I gave you guys that one out, I gave you that a plus two 50, that they would make the surveys. If you remember, because I told you they had a very easy, and that looks like it’s going to be the case. And even
Speaker 3 (5m 60s): Now though, sitting like with, you know, we’re down to 16 teams, four wins away, whatever. Plus eight 50 still feels like you could have, you’re going to have a team definitely in the final four, right? Maybe, you know, maybe down to that final two sitting on eight 50, even now feels like a decent, decent value, Sean.
Speaker 0 (6m 19s): And then there’s the, the emotional angle. He the, well, we like Amsterdam for other reasons, Amsterdam big friend of the program. But Netherlands wasn’t that the, that was the player that they lost because he collapsed on the field, right? Like Denmark, Netherlands, Denmark, same difference. That’s
Speaker 3 (6m 37s): The Rocky story, right? They’re like, don’t do that.
Speaker 0 (6m 39s): I was going to say they could, you know, they, they have a background anyway, before we get into breaking down these games, was there any big surprise Billy from the group stage? It seems relatively chalky, but any, any surprises as Sean knowing that didn’t get in or did, I was going to say
Speaker 3 (6m 55s): Shaun knows all the countries. So he’s assuming it’s nothing, no big surprises,
Speaker 0 (6m 58s): No huge shockers. But what, what was the biggest surprise? If there was one,
Speaker 4 (7m 3s): The biggest surprise for me, wasn’t in terms. So if you look at the bracket and you’re presented with these teams that gone through, there’s no surprises there. If you woke up from a coma and I woke up from the anesthetic this time last week,
Speaker 0 (7m 18s): Real quick, shout out to Billy, literally, you know, playing through the pain of Rocky, like performance GRA dropping podcasts from his hospital room. So a real DJ is only just power and throws, inspire shit. These inspired.
Speaker 4 (7m 36s): That was that one 15 minute show I did. If you will say it, it’s like, I never I’d always get to 20, but this was a, this was a pain film. And I was like, this has to be okay if they knew what my, what my bloody underwear look like. And
Speaker 0 (7m 50s): Of course Billy did send it to the group text.
Speaker 4 (7m 58s): I complained about pic, which is, which is, and of course that said Billy off,
Speaker 0 (8m 5s): All right, Billy. So get it, get it, get it back to you. You come out of a coma. You look at the, the, the knockout stage. Nothing is that crazy, but there was a bit of a surprise in the group stage.
Speaker 4 (8m 17s): There was no surprise in terms of waking up in a coma and seeing the teams that are there. But it’s the way some of the teams are playing England, who are a, who are known for their attack in terms of you’re having Sterling Krulish Rashford, Harry Kane, who hasn’t scored a single goal and started as a plus 500 favorite to be the golden boot, a winner. He hasn’t got a single goal. So England has gone through they’ve won the group and he’s the lowest number of goals scored in history for a group winner. They’ve scored two goals in three games, set of one, the fruit without conceit stylistically.
That’s not how you expect that England’s approach to tournament Germany’s defense. Well, I knew it was to be bad, but it’s even worse than we expected. Other, other than that, as Spain, they’d been known for years, but he’s ticky tack of football, where they try to break teams down by passing him today. We thought there might be some evolution with more young players because he left a lot of the old players at home and they didn’t pick any room or drink players. These kids that he’s got in, despite winning the last game, five mil prior to that, they were doing more of the old man staying ticky Docker than we’ve ever seen before.
They weren’t even going anywhere with it. The first game against Sweden was a neonatal draw where a team had 85% of the ball. That’s like the equivalent of a one team making one first down. And I’m tired like that. I don’t know why I make these NFL analogy. No,
Speaker 0 (9m 42s): I appreciate it. It makes so much sense. I’m able to wrap my head around it. You did.
Speaker 4 (9m 48s): I like to think that like everybody that’s listening now is, is used to this soccer stuff by now. But, but yeah, I mean that, that they were very, very disappointing, but they did win that last game, five nil. They were also on COVID protocol. So they weren’t able to prepare properly. And maybe now that’s kind of caught up with it and they look like they’re supposed to look. But other than that, it’s really difficult to reach for supplies. It’s really, I guess, in a positive of the tournament, because they came in on an unbeaten run that now got 11 straight wins with 11 straight games without conceding a goal.
So they look really, really strong, but the, the strength of the opponent has been really weak. So I think a lot, I saw her picks wise, making Italy their, their power, the number one in the power rankings. I recommend they hire somebody that knows about soccer.
Speaker 3 (10m 40s): Honestly, when I saw the price, I was like, that’s interesting because obviously Sean, we’re invested in Belgium right now on the advice of a Billy like three months ago at this point, maybe four. And you look at the path and that’s, we should just talk about games, Sean. Let’s do I want to, I want to bet on, I want to get some beds.
Speaker 4 (10m 56s): I don’t remember tipping Belgium to
Speaker 0 (10m 58s): You. I don’t think I sent you a text.
Speaker 3 (11m 1s): Nita, Nita, random pig for the euros sometime back in February. And you said Belgium. And so
Speaker 4 (11m 8s): We have, since then they’ve got issues with,
Speaker 0 (11m 15s): I wanna hear any bad news, only positive Belgium news. All right. Let’s get into the pigs. Before we do want to shout out prop swap. We of course are brought to you by props off America’s number one app to buy and sell sports bets props off baby. You can find the best odds on the NBA championship. The Stanley cup, you know, the futures market is red hot right now. Of course the Knights just got eliminated by the Canadian. So maybe you’re riding a Canadians ticket. I know in the NBA, there’s, there’s a ton of value in some of these props because you know, sons were up big and in that sons to win the championship ticket, probably skyrocketed in value, maybe should have sold it before the game three probably took a little a hit, nothing too crazy.
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Speaker 3 (12m 54s): I can’t wait to list my giants futures on prop swap for the exact amount that you would win.
Speaker 4 (13m 2s): If you can sell your Belgium futures. Oh yeah. Maybe, maybe we
Speaker 0 (13m 7s): Contests. Yeah. We’re actually in a contest. So we don’t have a physical ticket if we would, maybe we would sell cause there the, the future price. I think we locked it in for the contest at six to one there now nine to one to win it all. Portugal’s 11 to one, they match up first tier Belgium is plus one 50 on the money line Portugal plus two 10. I know what you’re thinking. Wow. That’s crazy. You can bet on both sides. You’re guaranteed a victory, not so fast. Get if you’re new to the soccer betting, especially in these knockout stages, they’ll have a draw price.
And so if the game goes 90 minutes, it goes to OT or shootout. You would not win your Moneyline bet. So make sure you look and, and there’s a to advanced bet. That would be like a traditional Moneyline bet.
Speaker 3 (13m 53s): But Billy like a proud father watching Sean, explain how betting on soccer works. Love it. I also throw in the two advanced line because that’s more, you know, the more American like who’s going to win the goddamn game. Yeah. I mean, I don’t know this is, this is what, this is the game of the, the round outside of the England Germany game and yeah, no immediately Rinaldo becomes evil and we’re on belt team. Belgium. He is, he is evil. Let’s hear Billy tell us why we’re wrong.
Speaker 0 (14m 23s): Yeah. What are you doing here Billy 90 minute draws at plus two 15 total two and a half.
Speaker 4 (14m 29s): This is all ones and eight. As the line shifted from the start of the tournament to Belgium being stronger favorites. The, these guys were rated evenly going into the tournament, obviously Portugal coming out of the group of death. But I think that’s a positive because they’ve already seen Germany. They’ve already seen France. They’d gone to two in France in order to qualify Belgium and had it straightforward path. Now I still think these two teams are equal. There’s there’s, there’s two, there’s two variables here. The two extra days off for Belgium, but Portugal are playing in weather in Seville, which is Portuguese weather.
So the Belgiums could be affected by that at some point in a game. So I think both factors do level them out. Obviously two days rest is a lot and I would usually lean towards that. But you know, if it, if it’s called Judy’s weather and your, and your Belgium, this is going to be like a home game. Plus I think you can get more Portuguese people down to severe in Spain. Then you can get Belgians down there. So there may be more people in the crowd as well. So all those other factors, even out, I think when you’re looking at the game, Belgium have won in the last year of peon cup.
Belgium have won the nations league as sorry. Portugal won the last European cup. Portugal won the nations league. Belgium got to the last world cup semifinals, so Portugal and know how to win. And everybody’s looking at his game and there’ll be like over, there’ll be goals versus Fernandez and Rinaldo. This has got all the star players in it. The problem is that the Portuguese manager he’s very, very negative. So he may set up in a very, very negative way to kill the, to kill this game up.
So Portugal, despite the fact being able to go toe to toe with his team, you may see a, you see a back fall for sure. But what you saw in the France game was a five man midfield with only Rinaldo going up front and getting some support from, from Jata. They even dropped Bruno Fernandez. Who’s the key player at Manchester United in order to be more pragmatic. So if you’re doing that against France, I can imagine you’re doing that against Belgium and looking to create chances on the brain. This Belgium backline is very, very slow.
So they are going to need to break for and penetrate that. We’ve heard the broiler and , they’re going to have to take chances.
Speaker 0 (16m 45s): We’ll get penetration. Sorry to interrupt. You just say, you said penetrate a lot. I had to drop it
Speaker 4 (16m 52s): And they’re going to have to, they’re going to have to be able to sit. They’re going to have to store because that there will be the Brunello. We’ll get a chance in this, this defense. It was world cost five years ago. Now you’ve still got the same players and the players that come in and replace them like denier. I’m not as good as the players that have gone like Vincent company. So without the wilderness, but Tonga net, they were great five years ago. Now going up against Chris, John, or an Aldo, he’s not age like a 36 year old. If you look at his body, if you look at his diet, if you look at the thing that you did with the Coke bowls, where he said he was disgusted, that they weren’t give me that water.
If anybody signs him, if he doesn’t say you’ve entered some, somebody signs him in the summer, it’s not going to be like signing a 36 year old. What you need to disregard everything with this. Human is not a normal human is not a 36 year old man, not even a normal day. Exactly. He’s the Brady of, of, of soccer. He can carry on for another four or five years easily. He, he’s not in no rush to go and get that easy NLS retirement money and make a big name for himself in America. He can do that in four more years.
I genuinely believe he’ll play the next world cup as well. So, so yeah, th this is so difficult to call. I just think tactically, I think Portugal will find a way to do it. I do like them as an underdog here, but if your bank, if your bank, if you’re betting this game, that will be one way or very uncomfortable because Belgium are going to be the ones that are pushing forward and having much, much more of this ball.
Speaker 0 (18m 25s): So it sounds like you’re taking you’re, you’re taking Portugal to advance. Is that your, is that your play? What are you thinking here, Billy?
Speaker 4 (18m 33s): Yeah, I like the, I like the draw plus money. I like the tire plus money and I like Portugal to be able to find a way to get through. Cause they just, they just seem like more of a team that will grind, grind their way through. I mean, there’s only one way this game is going to play out. It’s going to be Belgium dominating the ball’s scoring and in Portugal go tiny, change your tactics too late. Cause they have, they have broken through or it’s going to be Portugal story. And then everybody sitting behind the ball, I don’t think this is going to be over three.
I don’t think this is going to be, you know, your three, four goals that people are. I mean, I hope it is because I’m not, I don’t think I’m going to take action on the over underline, but, but I, but I just don’t think it’s going to be as interesting as people are hoping for Kramer.
Speaker 0 (19m 21s): Where are you at? I’m just going to do Belgian new advance in route for, I love the,
Speaker 3 (19m 25s): I love taking the, the 90 minute draw bell. I, for a draw, I’m going to, I’m going to jump on Billy with that. And then I’m gonna say, I think this game goes to penalty kicks. I’ll take, I’ll take the squad and maybe the better analogy for Christiana Ronaldo because he’s an elite level athlete. Not like Tom Brady would be LeBron James. Oh yeah. In that he has been almost impervious to real injury and he has the physical traits that we really haven’t like. We haven’t seen a guy who’s that quick, that fast and also that big.
And you’ve seen like those things of his vertical leap, like, you know, those that say poopoo to soccer, like when, although has a higher vertical leap than most dudes in the NBA. So good, good luck with that. And then I’ll also take Belgium to win in penalty kicks ten one. Oh,
Speaker 0 (20m 11s): Wow. All right. And how long it
Speaker 4 (20m 13s): Just decide that if you can find it over two and a half penalty over two and a half games to go to batteries in a tournament is available at plus one 50. Mm Ooh.
Speaker 3 (20m 23s): I like that. Yeah. I mean it does. It does seem like when you get down to these, these rounds, like teams are more likely to, to, you know, what do they say? Park the bus. Yeah. What,
Speaker 4 (20m 34s): When you get to a tie, you very rarely see a goal in that 30 minutes extra because people get very scared. So it does give you some good value at plus one 50. I love it.
Speaker 0 (20m 45s): All right. Move it over to Italy. Austria. Italy. Of course, like Billy said, coming in possibly a little overrated, minus two, 10 Austria plus 700. The draw sits at a plus three 20 Italy is six 50 plus six 50 to win it. All those futures seem a little, Austria is a plus 15,000. It seems like just judging by these numbers. It should be a blood bath. Does Austria have any chance of hanging in this game belly?
Speaker 4 (21m 18s): I don’t think they do. I think it’s going to be a little bit more difficult than those odd suggest and what everybody else is. Just everybody’s looking past this game. I think that’s fine. I think it’s Lee will end up going through, but this is going to be something that you’ll see a lot in these, in this round of 16, it’s going to be the team that won the group, going up against the inferior team who are a massive underdog. So what they’ll do is they’ll put men behind the ball. I think what’s key here is you have a player in Austria called David Alba.
Who’s capable of playing as a defender. He’s just signed for real Madrid is capable of playing as a left back and he’s capable of playing out. Why Danny midfield now in the first game, Austria played him out wide. He gets north Macedonia and they did really well. And he was really influential. Then when I played against Holland, they moved Alabama to the back and try to sit in and get a draw from that game. And they lost to nil where you see Alabama play, I think would, would indicate how Austria going to start tactically. So for me, it’s going to be a case of if they go for it, they get beat, but they get beat in a game that has some goals.
And if they sit in, they get beat eventually. And there’ll be a little bit more frustrating for you. There may be an employee opportunity where this has dollars at half time and Italy need to like find a way to be more creative and breakthrough later on. So I think this is either going to be like going to 1, 3, 1 8, leave if it’s an open game, which I don’t think it will be. I think we will see Alibaba utilized offensively. And I think Italy will have to break this team down. Sean,
Speaker 3 (22m 51s): Based on that feedback under two and a half goals is plus two 40 really? Oh wow. I didn’t realize it was that June numbers that I’m seeing this one all the way up to three and a half. So yeah. It seems like, well,
Speaker 4 (23m 4s): I like Italy as a other Italy added with the under three and a half for a bit more safety. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (23m 10s): I mean it does, it does seem like this game getting to four goals would be unlikely.
Speaker 0 (23m 14s): Yeah. I’m going to go with the, I liked that. Adjusted a little dog action. Give me under two and a half plus two 40. And where are you at Kramer? What are you like here? What are your fancy?
Speaker 3 (23m 25s): I mean, I, again, I think if they play that style of game, he stated earlier Italy, not exactly giving up goals. So another one may, maybe a sprinkle the draw. Maybe, maybe this is maybe we found something, Sean, maybe we just play the draw on every single one of these games and see how it plays out. I
Speaker 4 (23m 43s): Don’t think they’ll get that, but I do. They’ll, they’ll be resistant for a little bit, a little bit. I give them more credit than other people
Speaker 3 (23m 50s): First half draw. But yeah, I think to me where I’m putting my money is on the under three and a half. I don’t see any
Speaker 0 (23m 58s): If that’s even money than, or minus one 10, that’s that, that feels like a gift. I’m going to go on a, on a ledge and go under two and a half. Plus two 40 Austria
Speaker 3 (24m 7s): Winning with Belgium. Winning would be good.
Speaker 0 (24m 10s): That would be, that would be perfect. Moving over to France, Switzerland, France coming in as one of the favorites here, four plus four 10 on the future to win it all Switzerland plus 10,000. The, as far as the game itself, France, minus 1 92. When in regular time, Switzerland plus six 50 draws sitting at 2 95 and a half. I mean, for, for what a big favorite they are to win the whole tournament, France to winning 90 minutes, a minus one 90 feels like a good price, right?
Billy, or, or am I not seeing this? Right? What am I missing?
Speaker 4 (24m 46s): No, that is a good price. I mean, France about two drawers in his tournament, but they against Hungary, they should have been about four nil up at half time. So they are having problems. They are having problems, putting the ball in the net, which is weird because you have Griezmann and back-pay and Benzema. So at some point, these, these players are going to go off. Ben’s mom already got two against, against Portugal in the last game. So we’re waiting for killing him back eight to turn up. He’s supposed to be the best player in the world after a messy or an elder retire.
So we’re looking for him to kind of go off here. I picked him in my fantasy team and captained them because I think this is a relatively straightforward game for them. The Swiss have been pretty bad in this tournament. They beat Turkey, but Turkey had been one of the biggest letdowns. They, they dominate the game against Wales, but when they played a top team again like Italy, they really did nothing. They, they offered nothing in that game. So I think this will be a pretty straightforward victory. I think France is route to the semifinals is pretty straightforward.
It looks chalky, but France, I saw them at even money plus 100 to make it to the seventies. And I don’t see how you go wrong with that because that’s two outright futures piled together for them to win the next two games. And the, it seems like when the matches actually happen, I mean, what’s this one. So then to qualify, it’s like minus 500. Yeah. So it’s going to be minus 500. And if they get to get Spain, they’re going to be around about minus 300.
According to my maps that doesn’t add up to evens that doesn’t add up to plus 100 that that adds up to around about minus one 40 minus one 50, if my projections are correct. So there’s decent value there.
Speaker 0 (26m 33s): Yeah. I’m I’m with you. So I’m going to take France minus one 90 to get it done the 90 and then France to get to the semi’s at, at, you know what Billy was saying right around even money. That seems like a great price. Where did, where are you at Kramer? I think
Speaker 3 (26m 48s): I heard Billy say that like this team is going to apply a lot of pressure. Maybe they’re down around the goal of bunch. I plucked this out more. This was just icing on the cake. I plucked this out more because I saw how many corners Switzerland had one in the group stage. And maybe I shouldn’t be, maybe I should get out of my spreadsheet on this one. I just did a Google search for those wondering, but the, the over you can get over eight and a half corner kicks in the France Switzerland game for plus one 10 right
Speaker 0 (27m 17s): Now. And between why, what do you root for in there? Get out of bounds over in that particular area to get the core it’s pressure. Right?
Speaker 3 (27m 28s): So I mean, you know, if there, if, if both teams are, are able to find attacking moments, corner kicks will happen. So I want to say, give me over eight and a half quarter cakes.
Speaker 4 (27m 39s): Yeah. You also have corners corners, handicaps offered in some games. So if you think it’s definitely going to play out like that, you can get quarter handicaps as well, corner spreads
Speaker 0 (27m 47s): Pick on the game. Right.
Speaker 3 (27m 49s): I mean, you know, it’s not super fun, I guess I’ll, I’ll ride with you on the France and regular time. And this is, this is one of the games that should be an easy advance. The price is right.
Speaker 0 (27m 59s): Yeah. And to get it, I mean, just looking at the 90 minute price in the advanced price, minus one 90 to minus 500, it seems like a crazy difference. I guess there, you know, Billy pointed out, they had a couple of times, maybe that’s why you’re getting a lower price here.
Speaker 3 (28m 14s): It’s just a different game. When you know that there’s extra time and penalty kicks versus when you don’t like the group stage. So
Speaker 0 (28m 21s): Croatia, Spain squaring off Spain is the favorite minus one, 60 to win in 90 Croatia plus five 50 draws in a 2 95 ratio is 60 to one to win it all Spain eight to one. Sounds like you think a Billy, you have Spain moving on here, but any, any thoughts on when they get it done or any thoughts on, yeah, I don’t know the game in general or it seems like they should move on from Croatia fairly easily. Although, although maybe this is where we start talking dog time,
Speaker 4 (28m 54s): They should like, this is a really young team against a really old team. And both of them play a similar way. Coratia did the opposite where they, they carried on coming to the tournament, the same players they’ve gotten to the world cup final. And it just seems a, a tournament too far. They did manage to put in a performance against Scotland all over their first two games. They look very, very average. Like they weren’t even going to go through some guys who were making bets on Scotland, but you should never bet on Scotland. And maybe that’s like a golden rule. So yeah, but they got past that and Spain ended up being slacky of five mils.
So it’s difficult to really know where they’re at. It is definitely a young versus old game and this is going to be quite possession based like you’re going to see loads and loads of midfield action feels like an under to me in terms of just where the ball’s going to be. Most of the time in the action areas and the, in the middle in the middle third. But I do think Spain will be able to, to get the gold to go through. I don’t know if I like them doing it in 90 though. And if it goes to the penalty, shootouts, Spain will lose this game because they missed their last five penalties in a row and cannot find a penalty taker.
That’s scary. So if you’re going to take a, I would take Spain to qualify and I would take a hedge on Coratia on penalties from the get go in case Spain, can’t get it up
Speaker 3 (30m 16s): Over under is sitting at two and a half with the even money. And then what was the other thing to win on penalties as the head for Kuwait? Croatia is a whopping 15 to one. Wow. Which that’s a, that’s a pretty high price for, for a team to, to win on panel. I mean, I like the idea.
Speaker 0 (30m 36s): I, I, you know, he laid out a great case, but I I’m going to go Croatia to advance, get a little dog action here at plus two 80 and a small sprinkle on the penalty. Yeah. I mean, Spain is
Speaker 3 (30m 46s): Like betting against like a dome team that you just know is going to find a way to choke at some point. What are you on real quick? As a recently made Lord of Scotland, I’m gonna take some, some, some, some issue with what Billy was saying about the great Scottish team and I don’t care. No, no, it’s fine. It’s fine. I got a little bit of land there. I’m a Lord. No big deal. We can talk about it later. Croatia to advance. That’s a fun
Speaker 0 (31m 13s): Bet. Plus, I know, I know that. I know the Scottish fans, they have a phrase Abe. Anyone but England. Yeah. Okay. That’s a little, a soccer stuff I picked
Speaker 4 (31m 21s): Up. I’m just done. I’m just moving around guys because it’s
Speaker 0 (31m 27s): All right. So what’s your official play? Ryan Walla. Well, Billy’s a readjusted. His set up.
Speaker 3 (31m 34s): I, I told you, I like, I like going with you on that Croatia. Alright, let’s do it. That’s a fun one. And I’ll also take the under,
Speaker 0 (31m 42s): Under, do we have a number 200, two and a half. So you’re Croatia to advance under two and a half. Are you on the penalty kicks? Well, I mean, I think,
Speaker 3 (31m 52s): I think I’ll find my way to betting a lot of these games with the penalty kicks. Cause it’s just a fun DJs only. I mean,
Speaker 0 (31m 58s): Pretty much you’re locking
Speaker 3 (32m 0s): In 10 to 20 to one. I mean, there’s a lot of positive VVV right there. Sean.
Speaker 0 (32m 8s): Billy was a Saint. He was a little, little too hot where he was in his room. Sounds like Billy could use a Rocky mountain refreshment, AKA an ice cold Coors light. Oh man, this is just it’s summer. It’s a slowdown summer. Every time I get hot, every time I start sweating out the thing that’s going through my head. I took a hot yoga class yesterday, Ryan. I’m sure you’ll make fun of that. Sweat it out. A lot of taxes from my body. Create more room to put in Rocky mountain refreshment.
Don’t say, I know it’s cold. Cause like the entire time I was there, I was like, oh, can’t wait to get outta here. And indu just crack open an ice cold Coors light it’s cold lager, cold filtered and cold package. It’s literally made chill cores light. So when I choose when I need to unwind, so when you want to hit reset, reach for the beer, that’s made chill, get Coors light in the new look delivered straight to your door with drizzly or Instacart cores brewing company, golden, Colorado, and as always celebrate responsible.
Speaker 3 (33m 13s): What were we going to say around? No, nothing. I was just, you know, you’ve given me this ammunition hot yoga, huh? Yeah.
Speaker 0 (33m 20s): So, I mean, can’t feel great. Sweating out into the oldies. It was got a great sweat in and again, cooled off with a nice ice cold cores, light Sweden, you crane. Oh man. This is probably like one of the better match-ups as far as odds go Sweden, plus 1 35 to win in 90 Ukraine. Plus 2 35 draws sitting at two 15, pretty even on the advanced line, minus 1 65 for Sweden, one 30 for a Ukraine. But you look at the, the odds of win at all.
Sweden 50 to one Ukraine, one 20 to one. So it seems like there’s a little discrepancy here on, on who should on the odds to win the entire tournament and the odds to win this game. Billy, where are you at Sweden Ukraine?
Speaker 4 (34m 7s): It’s a tough one. Sweeten up all the momentum because they’d come in with seven points of winning that group. So they have a very, they’re very, very difficult to break down that Poland game was a little bit more open because number one, you’re going up against the best guy in the world, Levandowski and he, and he took chances. And number two, it didn’t matter to Sweden so they can go out there and play an open game. When we saw them not playing open game against against Spain, they got a draw with 16% of the ball. So that makes them very difficult to break down.
So there’ll be difficult to come up against in this group stage Ukraine as well. I mean, I went toe to toe with Holland. What surprises me most is something we didn’t touch on, but Austrian Ukraine when they played each other in a group stage the draw and you’ll never see this again was even money plus 100 because all they needed to do was play out a draw and they would have both advanced, but somehow Austria won that game. By winning that game, they gave themselves less rest and gave themselves the game against Italy.
And they could be in a spot that Ukraine, which is where they were set up to be. And Austria and Sweden is a much easier game for Australia. So it was confusing to me. I actually had money on the, on the Neil Neil draw because I thought they were really going to play out a draw like as in like, not as any attack intent at all. So it’s where we ended up in his position and it’ll be even stranger if osteo go out and Ukraine or in the next round by losing that game, that will be bizarre. But I just think Sweden, the other bad, same here.
I think they win again that you don’t have to watch. I think there won’t be much GOMAP map action here. Right?
Speaker 3 (35m 52s): Maybe they had a really sweet third string Stryker. They needed to see out on the
Speaker 0 (35m 56s): Field. One last time Nate said fell in love this situation. I
Speaker 3 (35m 60s): Mean, isn’t this another game you just take the draw maybe plus two 15 plus two 15 on the draw here. All
Speaker 0 (36m 7s): Right. I’m going to keep it simple and just have Sweden to advance. Although the Ukraine storyline is kind of interesting, but yeah, Sweden to advance. Keep it simple. England, Germany. This should be a, this should be a really good matchup. Of course I know Billy. We’ll be doing a deep dive on the soccer gambling podcast and make sure you subscribe to the soccer gambling podcast. Rate it, review it. Huge
Speaker 3 (36m 29s): Revenge spot for England for like every war.
Speaker 0 (36m 32s): Yes, 200. Wow. Come on. They, they, they won both wars. I mean, certainly we helped to an O in world wars eat at Germany, England, plus 1 55 during the 90 Germany plus 200 draws sitting at two 15 England minus 1 25 to advance Germany or plus 100. They both are sitting at seven to one to win it all. Billy, are you going with your home club team here? England? Are you, are you taking the hated crowds with Germany?
Speaker 4 (37m 4s): I’m going to break this down, like more tactically on, on my show because I have a lot of thoughts on is in a nutshell, there is a way to, I think England can sell to win this game very, very easily. Now Germany played three at a back. They play four in midfield and three upfront. So these, these two wide players, they play in their midfield. They’re supposed to double up as defenders. They call wingbacks. They’re supposed to get up and down. Now when they are caught out of position, this, what normally happens with this formation is that the three centric offenders are supposed to be high up the pitch because it’s an attacking lineup now because Germany played mats humbles in their team.
They cannot go that far up the pitch because Matt’s humbles will not be able to get back. Now that means that they will sit too deep and they will invite teams on both situations completely, but benefit England. If they played a pace players, then that means a Rashford, sacker or sand show. Any of these players that play, they should be able to terrorize Germany with pace. I’m concerned that we’re going to see a team that has, I mean, Jack really should play, but he should play in a, in a bit in a midfield Cray position, nine a wide position if grilled cheese in a wide position and phones in a wide position that completely neutralizes the advantages, the England Avenue’s game.
So England coming to this also having not conceded a goal, but if they play a back for Germany, like to attack with a five and what we saw against Portugal in that one game that they want to get another back for. We saw this ball spread all over the box, left, right left, right, switched all over the place, giving them a number advantage in the box. So England’s holding midfielders have to be switched on. But again, I would go with the youth. I would go with rice and Belgium. I would not put Jordan Henderson in his team. So for me, it’s going to be all down to team selection. Whether it’s going to be gap Southgate, going for the players that are tried and trusted in the old guard and the people that he likes and there’s always played, or whether he’s going to take a risk and play these youth team play these, these younger players that will play these Germans off the park.
Like I’m talking like they will be getting over the top and in and behind. And there’ll be a huge gap between midfield and deep and the defense. Every five minutes, they’ll be able to sit out there. They’ll be able to explore this. So it’s a tactical nightmare if it’s played right. But unfortunately I’m not the England manager. So I don’t know how he’s going to go.
Speaker 3 (39m 24s): It sounded a little bit like you’re concerned. He might go the same way. He’s always gone, which is not the way you want them to go. And I got to ask because I probably, you know, I tend to root for England over Germany and situations. So I’ll probably be ruined for England here. Why not fun bet. Plus 1 55, they take care of it and regulation. But if Germany were to win this game, they are going to win in a shutout, right? Germany is going to win one, nothing, Germany to win in a shutout Shaun to win a nil as they call it or whatever to win to.
Now,
Speaker 4 (40m 2s): No, this team won’t keep up. I don’t think this thing could keep a clean sheet for water. Plus they shipped two goals to Hungary. So that’s true that the defense is the, the defense is the problem. So I can see England played badly in this whole tournament. So bad and still managed to get through as group winners. They’re now playing here against Germany. The essentially for me, the most interesting part about this game and why I’m giving it so much coverage on my second, last 16 show is because I think it’s a semifinal.
I honestly, bill, but whoever comes out of this should blitz through this half of the draw, even though Germany at the 12th ranked team in the world, and they can’t defend, they should go through England three home games coming up in his tournament if they get through here. So there are this, this is a Wembley, the qualifying or is not, but then they returned to Wembley for a semiotic file. So it’s all set up for them here. If they, if for me, if they play the right team. And I think to some extent they will be able to beat this Germany team.
But if we go out as usual, it will be penalty shoe out. And as usual there’ll be unexcused, I don’t know.
Speaker 0 (41m 16s): I’m going to be a little more optimistic than Billy. I’m taking the England to advance minus 25. All that being said, do you have England moving on Billy?
Speaker 4 (41m 25s): Yeah, I do. I think, I think, you know, you’ve got to be very, very tactically on the word systems to see that they slow at the back. So I think this decision will be made and the right decision will be made and we will see more pace in this team, Phil photons. Great. And he’s had a great season, but I don’t think he belongs in this game. This isn’t a game where when we come up against Sweden or Ukraine, probably Sweden, if we get through this game, then we really will need those skill players where we have to break a team down.
We have to do something special. We have to play a special pass or anything like that. This is not that game. This is a case of they’re slow. They push up high up the pitch and attack really an attack in a lot of numbers. And if we catch them continuously on the break we’ll score goals. To me, it’s common sense.
Speaker 3 (42m 15s): It’s yeah. I, I, nothing better than when I step onto the pitch as a youth soccer coach and I see someone who is playing a high press with slow players, it’s easy. You just have to get back. You just need people willing to run their ass off the whole game.
Speaker 0 (42m 32s): Netherlands Czech Republic, Netherlands, minus one 50 as the favorite Czech Republic for 30 on the, to win a 90 minutes, 90 minute trial, plus 2 85, Netherlands, eight 50 plus eight 50 to win it all. And a Czech Republic plus 10,000 to advance Netherlands minus 3 0 5 Czech Republic plus two 20. Is there, is there any case for Czech Republic moving on here and surviving?
Speaker 4 (43m 0s): Yeah, definitely. They, they have, they, they did get a draw against Coratia. They they’ve won against Scotland. Look, they’re up there. They’re organized England. England scored the one goal against them, but they couldn’t score a second. So there’ll be one of those teams that are organized in Patrick Schick. They have a player who scored the goal at a tournament. They have a player who should be, should attract the interest of top clubs. So this check team are coming back. They had some really, really bad years. Like you’re a 96, they’re in the final Italia back in 1990, they were a strong team as well.
We’re coming out. Obviously we lost the era where they had players like Ned VAD and Peter check. And then we had a little down period for the Czech Republic, but they seem to have decent players again. So I don’t think this will be easy for Holland at all. Like this will be a game where they’ll find them difficult to break down, Holland them missing defensive players as well in Vandyke, the just come back into the team. So that’s a good thing for them as well. But yeah, this isn’t, this, isn’t a hole in team that are unbeatable. This is a whole team. They’ve got a really nice draw that I identified and I think there’ll be Czech Republic, but I don’t think this is going to be easy.
I don’t think if they go out here, I’m not going to be stunned and call it the upset of the tournament. I don’t think it will be that
Speaker 0 (44m 16s): I’m writing the, the underdog angle. Give me a Czech Republic. Plus two 20. The fact that they were able to hang in, some of these groups has for 30 minutes what’s plus four 30 them to advance and to win it regularly. Yeah, you’re right. Let’s go plus four 30. Well, we don’t need any because
Speaker 3 (44m 32s): Don’t worry about it. It’s going to happen. It’s going to happen because Netherlands has elapsed, like Billy saying this, this is a professional.
Speaker 0 (44m 38s): Yeah. Catch him sleeping. Let’s go check plus four 30 Kramer you on you riding. No, no,
Speaker 3 (44m 44s): No. I think, I think it’s a fun story, but I’ll go the other way. I’ll take that.
Speaker 0 (44m 47s): I guess. What’s your official play? I’ll take
Speaker 3 (44m 50s): Netherlands minus one 50. I think, I think they’ll love it in
Speaker 0 (44m 53s): The, in the 90 million you take in Netherlands minus one 50.
Speaker 4 (44m 58s): Yeah. I think, I think if it’s Netherlands, it’s in a Nike and I do like that price. I saw that today. I think it’s a case again, it’s like a lot of these games, it sounds like, oh, this guy has the same opinion a lot, but these games are like that. You’re looking at teams that came third in their group going again, teams that came first. So what’s going to happen. They’re going to, they’re going to realize there’s an inferiority there and they can set up to defend and look, these are the teams that are not out. They may have come third, but they still got, they still got through. So they’re organized enough.
And they’re obviously all top players to be in this tournament to make it difficult, to break them down. It’s not going to be, we’re not going to see any five Nils here in this, in this round of 16 for anyone. So yeah, it’s even, even in Switzerland, France, which for me is the easiest game to pick. It’s going to take some time to break Switzerland down. And once you do, that’s when games open up and then you may see two and three when, when teams come out. But initially like the idea of all these teams is to survive the first 30 minutes.
That’s the mentality of all of these things, that game. Now you
Speaker 0 (46m 1s): Mentioned that it’s just survived the first 30 or 40, 45. 30 minutes. Yeah. Wait, I thought it’s 90 minutes in a game. First, the 30 minutes
Speaker 3 (46m 12s): In the, in the first 30 minutes, you don’t want to come out, have a, like a lapse, let someone give up a goal because then you have to completely alter your strategy potentially. And it’s just, you know, he
Speaker 0 (46m 23s): Can’t, you did you keep, you kept using the word
Speaker 3 (46m 25s): Scared, which is kind of, kind of right. Like there’s a little bit of that point playing not to lose,
Speaker 0 (46m 29s): But yeah. And I wonder in the same way that we hammer these first half unders in March madness, is there, is there a theory to maybe playing some first half unders in the knockout stage of the hero? Honestly,
Speaker 3 (46m 43s): I think as we’ve been talking, I’ve kind of been thinking about it, but maybe we just play the tie. We play like the tie for the first half sits around plus like one 10. I think I see a plus 1 25 in the Netherlands game. Maybe you just blast
Speaker 0 (46m 58s): Every time or staff time. I liked that I can get it. what is the over-under for these games? Is it like, maybe the way to play
Speaker 3 (47m 11s): It as you take under a half goal for every first half. Cause they’ll, there’ll be as low as plus one 40 plus one 70, but as high as plus 2 0 5. Yeah. So maybe that’s a, that’s a fun angle to play. Just root against scoring. And Ty Sean, you’re really getting into soccer dude. Like you’re, you’re really finding
Speaker 0 (47m 29s): Here I come, soccer, Wales squares off against Denmark Wales, plus four 40 in the 90 Denmark, minus 1 20 90 minute trial, 2 25 Denmark, 19 to one to win at all whales, a hundred to one Billy Denmark cruises here. Or, or do whales give them
Speaker 4 (47m 48s): A game. Yeah, I’ve been doing this whole show trying to work out the order you’re going in because this is the first game that gets played of the whole round. This, it gets played tomorrow at five. So I dunno what you, I literally, I found a bracket and I copied and patient okay. When you use the bracket, that makes sense. Now what you’ve done, right? So yeah, this is the first games happens tomorrow. Five o’clock while I was in Denmark, Denmark have the big emotional story. They actually had that incident with Christian Erickson and decided to go out and play 90 minutes later, which was a mistake because they lost the, one of the worst teams in the tournament.
They were then up against it. They had to get a result against either Belgium or Russia. And they were beating Belgium a hard time. And then they just, you know, got outclassed in the second half. But then we saw them. What happens when they play a team at their level against Russia, this is what they should have done to fill. And they absolutely pasted Russia in that game for one with whales, whales, they’re very well-organized they sit back. There were a lie pretty much solely on Don Garrett, Val and Aaron Ramsey to create boredom. And that’s what they’ll do again here.
So this isn’t going to be a cakewalk for, for, for Denmark, but I think we’ve that Erickson story behind you and that momentum. Now I do see Denmark advancing here in this. I know that’s plus money. So I would just take the, the Moneyline play.
Speaker 3 (49m 11s): Yeah. I mean, it, it, Denmark seems like a cheaper price than it should. And maybe we roll the dice on the 90 minutes at minus one 20, cause they’re definitely going to win. They’re going to advance. And I think, I dunno. I mean, like I said, I think a lot of people were calling them out as a team that you really liked to get to that round of eight because of the path they might have. And now we’re seeing it.
Speaker 4 (49m 34s): I got that future. I lost day. One thing I said, Wales, they’ve done really well to get to this point, considering their manager is suspended for beating up his partner. So that’s Ryan Giggs, Ryan Giggs, the X man United player. Who’s who’s suspended at the moment for this competition. So they have a temporary manager in charge and they were everybody’s tip to go out in the group stage. But Turkey were very worried, poor like turkeys, young players that were being tallied quite highly did not turn up, but it’s tournament.
So I don’t know how good Wells are. They been dominated in two games and they managed to beat Turkey. So I do think Denmark will witness on the line. They are that they are the bad team, but with whales, you just don’t know last, last tournament in this tournament, I got to the semi’s and they have a weird story that can go both ways, either. They so far, they played for this manager, but these not the real coach. This is a coach that you know, that that’s come in very temporarily and Robert Page. So it’s a hard one to know what way it will go in terms of emotional stakes, but a Denmark a better, and they should win this.
No, maybe they just didn’t like
Speaker 0 (50m 42s): The other coach Denmark minus one 20 and 90. Keep it, you know,
Speaker 3 (50m 47s): Also just for those wondering team, Ryan has officially revoked him. Ryan Giggs is whatever his name was is privilege,
Speaker 0 (50m 56s): No longer ship card, no longer a reference.
Speaker 3 (50m 59s): He’s not getting the ramrod special commemorative coffee mug this month.
Speaker 0 (51m 4s): All right. Let’s any, any futures worth hitting on? I I’m just I’m team Belgium all the way riding this thing out, Billy would or any to win it, all futures that are jumping out at you before we get to a lock and a dog.
Speaker 4 (51m 19s): Oh yeah. Okay. So I’ll save the lock then as, as the, as the future for me, don’t, don’t, don’t take a winner. Don’t take a winning side in England, Germany game. Just take them and take them to advance to the final Germany plus 400 England plus three 50, I believe. And that’s fine. I mean, if they, if they beat each other, you only need to navigate the two more games and that will be against Sweden or Ukraine. And then someone from the other side of the draw and Netherlands, Denmark, Wales, et cetera.
So I just don’t see it, but especially with England, having that semifinal game at Wembley Holland in England is a pretty even matchup. I would say if it’s not happening at Wembley stadium with the government coming out and removing restrictions for the semi vitals in the final, because we were scared of losing the, the final in the semifinals to Prague,
Speaker 3 (52m 17s): To Budapest. Sorry. And I think so funny enough, I, you know, I follow a formula one and that they’ve just announced. They’re going to have a full crowd at Silverstone, the track and in the UK under the guidelines that they’re doing research. So I wonder if they’re doing some research at the, the year of 20, 20 semifinal final. It sounds like Billy has talked me out of taking them anything with Netherlands. And I’m just going to buy some, some England to advance to the final. Maybe some of England to win it all at 7, 7 50. I haven’t seen some plus nine hundreds out there,
Speaker 0 (52m 48s): So yeah, I’m going to do that. I’m going to go. I can’t, I can’t in good conscience. I have a ticket on Germany, England at 7 0 1. And then obviously it’s still going to be riding that Belgium.
Speaker 4 (52m 59s): I said to advance to the final, not to not to win it.
Speaker 0 (53m 4s): I know I’m saying, I’m saying to win at all. I’m going to, I’m going to say they hoist the cup. Billy
Speaker 3 (53m 10s): Knows how the, the Juju works. He’s
Speaker 0 (53m 12s): He doesn’t want to jinx it. I get it. All right, let’s do it. Lock dogs, something spicy. I’ll start things off. As the soccer expert, give me France, minus one 90 as my dog or my lock for my dog, I will take a Czech Republic to get it done in 90 minutes at plus four 30 something spicy. I will do. I mean I could do under in the Italy Australia game, but I’ll do Croatian a win by penalty kicks at 15 to one that feels like a fun long shot.
Kramer. What’d he got locked dog something crazy. Oh,
Speaker 3 (53m 51s): The lock let let’s let’s lock up the draw in the, the Belgium Portugal game. 90 minute drop plus two 15. I’m not, I’m not, no, I’m going bigger for my dog belly for my dog. I’m going to actually, no, sorry. Lock up the corner kicks over eight and
Speaker 0 (54m 13s): A half. I forgot wrote this quarter kicks over eight and a half of the France Switzerland game dog
Speaker 3 (54m 18s): Draw in the, in the, write it all down. Sean, the Belgium Portugal game and for something spicy, I’m staying in that game. Belgium wins and penalty kicks tend to one. Ooh,
Speaker 0 (54m 32s): Belgium wins and penalty kicks two.
Speaker 3 (54m 33s): And I want us to experience that dramatic moment of this team that we have carrying us to, to notoriety in the futures draft marketplace.
Speaker 0 (54m 44s): Yeah, I don’t need that. Sweat. Billy, are you someone in the chat wanted to know John was, are you rocking a PlayStation sweatshirt? And he was wondering, are you, are you going to be getting a PS five with all the money you’ve been cashing lately?
Speaker 4 (54m 56s): I actually, if I turn my camera around, there’s a oh, there you go. Oh, fucker. I need one of those actually. Not connected though. Over there it’s it’s confiscated for my, for my son. It’s actually, but he was caught playing at two o’clock in the morning and I could hear like, like wearing and stuff on that with his headset. And he didn’t know that I would still hear him. So that’s hilarious.
Speaker 3 (55m 25s): Oh man. There’s nothing worse when the kids get in trouble and we got go, I got to take away the video games. Cause then I can’t play video games.
Speaker 4 (55m 32s): Yeah. That’s not my peers five. That’s what he got for Christmas. So, all right.
Speaker 0 (55m 36s): Well is, is PS five in the penalty box? Let’s do it. Billy lock dog, something spicy. What do you got for us?
Speaker 4 (55m 42s): All right. So the, the lock for me is going to be France to reach the semifinals. So I’m seeing here at, at somewhere, anywhere between plus 100 to minus 1 0 5, the maths doesn’t add up for me because they’re around about minus 500, I believe, or minus 400 to qualify in this round. And they will be if they come up against Spain or Coratia, they will either, they will be somewhere between minus two 80 to minus three 50 against either spinal Coratia. It doesn’t matter what one.
So the way these numbers have been done, it doesn’t make any sense. So the value is here for France to reach the there’s only vinyl because this Paula, if you do it individually, but France to qualify in this game, but for them to qualify against the winner of Spain and Coratia, it’s not going to give you plus 100 or minus 1 0 5. It’s not going to be close. It’s going to be, it’s going to be minus 40 minus 50. If my maths on the fly is correct
Speaker 3 (56m 39s): I’m to, I’m going to run that math. But yeah, I think you’re, I think you’re right by a mile, the minus 500, it’s a tough, tough price. Even if they’re only minus 300 over Spain, it’s it’s still a better value minus one 70. So, you know,
Speaker 0 (56m 53s): Th that’s that’s that’s that’s sports investing 1 0 1. Yeah. Great value. Fine. Billy, what about the dog here? What do you got?
Speaker 4 (57m 1s): Yeah, I think if you’re looking for something from the round of 16, my, my biggest, the dog I like is Portugal to find a way to, to get through Belgium for something bigger than that. At bigger odds, ride a ride England to get to the final at plus three 50, as I said, don’t bother taking any side in a Germany England game. I would just take the, whoever you think is gonna win. Take them to reach the final. I think that’s, that’s a solid way to play that.
Nice. And
Speaker 0 (57m 32s): Then spicy, any sort of long shat prop parlay, anything, any, any, anything like that? Shake your fancy
Speaker 4 (57m 42s): Briefly?
Speaker 0 (57m 43s): No, I mean, that’s, that could be it. If you want to make Portugal your dog, the one that guy was completely 10 to one. We can do that for you.
Speaker 4 (57m 55s): Yeah. I’ve not got anything like that. I stand by my over two and a half penalty shootouts in his tournament band. That’s a fun, that’s a fun prop. It’s fun too, because like you, you know, you always either lost you another three weeks. That one. So I mean that, I mean, I, unless of course, you know, you’re out of it and there hasn’t been a single panel issue out in around a 16 and you’re worried because you’ve got seven games left and you need three shoe outs. I don’t think you’re going to be in our spot. I think we will see a couple of shoe outs in his last 16.
And that puts you in a good position where you only need one and a quarter. Semi’s a big Dino. This takes you all the way up to the final. I think another way, a long shot, the longest long thing I would have would be France, England final, which would be 10 to one. But then you can also take bronze Germany final, and just take both, both sides of that. Giving you 10 and 12 to one. I like that.
Speaker 0 (58m 57s): All right, Billy, appreciate you calling in. Make sure you give a Billy a follow on Twitter at S G P soccer. Make sure you subscribe to the soccer gambling podcasts. Oh, on the sports gambling podcast network, going to be doing a deep dive on all these games going, going hard enough. Yeah, this is a good surface level. You know, some soccer for some Americans and the non hardcore fans, but are plenty of hardcore footy fans and yeah. Make sure you check it out. Sports gambling, or sorry, soccer, gambling pod, including Sean’s stuff.
I will be tuning in getting my deep dives, some extra nuggets. Thank you for participating in the sports gambling podcast. Poor this one’s getting me back at some Sean stacking, the muddy green, and he is Ryan. Best
Speaker 3 (59m 44s): Of luck to you, Sean. Sean soccer,
Speaker 2 (59m 47s): Green crib.
…
Attachments area
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Speaker 1 (48s): And you’re listening to S G P N let it ride, baby.
Speaker 0 (1m 24s): Welcome everyone to the sports game on podcasts. I’m Sean stack and the money gram with my partner and pigs Ryan real money Kramer what’s happened in dog. I’ve shared
Speaker 3 (1m 34s): This with the Twitters Twitter sphere already, but it is 2021, June 25th. And this is now one day removed from a day where Sean came into the office and said, Hey, can we turn on the soccer game for the third day in a row? Just to find out there was no soccer and he was sad. Hopefully your dad’s not listening Sean now, because you have become a soccer talking
Speaker 0 (1m 59s): About soccer, Sean. Well, listen, the Sixers are out tries. I might, I can’t, I can’t bite into baseball at them. I’m dabble with soccer. I still, I know it’s Euro 2020. I wish they would figure out how to get the United States in maybe, maybe our women’s team. They play well, send them over there. I mean, we got art. Most of our players, Europeans, like, come on, throw them in Euro, taurine, taurine. I want to fill out a bracket and we actually, we do have a bracket now because we’re moving on to the group stage. We are going to be doing a deep dive Euro, 2020 picks.
Oh man. So much, so much to get into. But before we do that, make sure we get to shout out our presenting sponsor. Win bet. That’s right. When bet is bringing you the action of real sports betting with the wind Las Vegas experience, get in on all your favorite teams, players, and games, generous promos, odds, and parlays. They’re all happening right now. And when bets spin that parlay, we’ll let it ride get started. Daniel, receive a offer up to $500 in a risk free Sportsbet terms and conditions apply.
Get the details@wyandnbet.com and download the app today, Ryan, we are we’re talking soccer. So of course we’re going to be joined by the host of the soccer, gambling podcasts. You know him, you love them the one and only Billy
Speaker 4 (3m 27s): It’s gone. Well, the only, the only disappointment we’ve had was it Spain didn’t win the group, but we have futures all sitting in positions to win. So I’m doing that thing, which you guys really hate, which is we’re looking at how to hedge some of this stuff that we do end up with a profit because we do ’em on my side and we do sports in investing. We don’t do sports gambling. I work on the, the soccer investing podcast, but yeah, that that’s kind of the position or when a really good position to make some, some hedges, because it would be a shame to let this all go into pot now.
But I mean, I don’t see it. The teams that we need to go through to the quarter finals with Italy, Spain, Holland, I’m not seeing any, any losses in this match up B the interest in me is still what it is at the beginning. The tournament stars. Now we’ve lost eight teams out 24. It’s pretty much meaningless that beginning space, other than for the small countries getting to participate. And obviously from a bank perspective where we’ve navigated ourselves into pop-rock into a profit position, but now the tournament really starts all the, all the big favorites from the beginning.
I was still where we haven’t lost anybody and it’s still wide open. The market is hardly changed. All we know now is that we have a draw where 16 teams are going to be whittled down to eight and announce a four. And we know potentially what a final can be and what the final carpets. So we are kind of for American guys, we have a
Speaker 3 (5m 2s): Germany is the AFC, I’m just going there because I think the AFC is going to be weaker this year, maybe strong near the top, but we overall one thing that stood out to me and Sean and I even discussed soccer futures in the office yesterday. I don’t recall that you see England, Germany and the Netherlands all clumped together there, and then no one else by a mile. I see Denmark there, maybe the next, what team? I it’s interesting to make them. I know a lot of people were having them get to the round of eight.
I see why now, but it still stood out to me that I said, what to you. I said, it seems like we should all go to the window. And I know we’ll talk about each game, but we should all go to the window and bet the Netherlands right now at plus eight 50, get some touch action.
Speaker 4 (5m 49s): Maybe that one I gave you guys that one out, I gave you that a plus two 50, that they would make the surveys. If you remember, because I told you they had a very easy, and that looks like it’s going to be the case. And even
Speaker 3 (5m 60s): Now though, sitting like with, you know, we’re down to 16 teams, four wins away, whatever. Plus eight 50 still feels like you could have, you’re going to have a team definitely in the final four, right? Maybe, you know, maybe down to that final two sitting on eight 50, even now feels like a decent, decent value, Sean.
Speaker 0 (6m 19s): And then there’s the, the emotional angle. He the, well, we like Amsterdam for other reasons, Amsterdam big friend of the program. But Netherlands wasn’t that the, that was the player that they lost because he collapsed on the field, right? Like Denmark, Netherlands, Denmark, same difference. That’s
Speaker 3 (6m 37s): The Rocky story, right? They’re like, don’t do that.
Speaker 0 (6m 39s): I was going to say they could, you know, they, they have a background anyway, before we get into breaking down these games, was there any big surprise Billy from the group stage? It seems relatively chalky, but any, any surprises as Sean knowing that didn’t get in or did, I was going to say
Speaker 3 (6m 55s): Shaun knows all the countries. So he’s assuming it’s nothing, no big surprises,
Speaker 0 (6m 58s): No huge shockers. But what, what was the biggest surprise? If there was one,
Speaker 4 (7m 3s): The biggest surprise for me, wasn’t in terms. So if you look at the bracket and you’re presented with these teams that gone through, there’s no surprises there. If you woke up from a coma and I woke up from the anesthetic this time last week,
Speaker 0 (7m 18s): Real quick, shout out to Billy, literally, you know, playing through the pain of Rocky, like performance GRA dropping podcasts from his hospital room. So a real DJ is only just power and throws, inspire shit. These inspired.
Speaker 4 (7m 36s): That was that one 15 minute show I did. If you will say it, it’s like, I never I’d always get to 20, but this was a, this was a pain film. And I was like, this has to be okay if they knew what my, what my bloody underwear look like. And
Speaker 0 (7m 50s): Of course Billy did send it to the group text.
Speaker 4 (7m 58s): I complained about pic, which is, which is, and of course that said Billy off,
Speaker 0 (8m 5s): All right, Billy. So get it, get it, get it back to you. You come out of a coma. You look at the, the, the knockout stage. Nothing is that crazy, but there was a bit of a surprise in the group stage.
Speaker 4 (8m 17s): There was no surprise in terms of waking up in a coma and seeing the teams that are there. But it’s the way some of the teams are playing England, who are a, who are known for their attack in terms of you’re having Sterling Krulish Rashford, Harry Kane, who hasn’t scored a single goal and started as a plus 500 favorite to be the golden boot, a winner. He hasn’t got a single goal. So England has gone through they’ve won the group and he’s the lowest number of goals scored in history for a group winner. They’ve scored two goals in three games, set of one, the fruit without conceit stylistically.
That’s not how you expect that England’s approach to tournament Germany’s defense. Well, I knew it was to be bad, but it’s even worse than we expected. Other, other than that, as Spain, they’d been known for years, but he’s ticky tack of football, where they try to break teams down by passing him today. We thought there might be some evolution with more young players because he left a lot of the old players at home and they didn’t pick any room or drink players. These kids that he’s got in, despite winning the last game, five mil prior to that, they were doing more of the old man staying ticky Docker than we’ve ever seen before.
They weren’t even going anywhere with it. The first game against Sweden was a neonatal draw where a team had 85% of the ball. That’s like the equivalent of a one team making one first down. And I’m tired like that. I don’t know why I make these NFL analogy. No,
Speaker 0 (9m 42s): I appreciate it. It makes so much sense. I’m able to wrap my head around it. You did.
Speaker 4 (9m 48s): I like to think that like everybody that’s listening now is, is used to this soccer stuff by now. But, but yeah, I mean that, that they were very, very disappointing, but they did win that last game, five nil. They were also on COVID protocol. So they weren’t able to prepare properly. And maybe now that’s kind of caught up with it and they look like they’re supposed to look. But other than that, it’s really difficult to reach for supplies. It’s really, I guess, in a positive of the tournament, because they came in on an unbeaten run that now got 11 straight wins with 11 straight games without conceding a goal.
So they look really, really strong, but the, the strength of the opponent has been really weak. So I think a lot, I saw her picks wise, making Italy their, their power, the number one in the power rankings. I recommend they hire somebody that knows about soccer.
Speaker 3 (10m 40s): Honestly, when I saw the price, I was like, that’s interesting because obviously Sean, we’re invested in Belgium right now on the advice of a Billy like three months ago at this point, maybe four. And you look at the path and that’s, we should just talk about games, Sean. Let’s do I want to, I want to bet on, I want to get some beds.
Speaker 4 (10m 56s): I don’t remember tipping Belgium to
Speaker 0 (10m 58s): You. I don’t think I sent you a text.
Speaker 3 (11m 1s): Nita, Nita, random pig for the euros sometime back in February. And you said Belgium. And so
Speaker 4 (11m 8s): We have, since then they’ve got issues with,
Speaker 0 (11m 15s): I wanna hear any bad news, only positive Belgium news. All right. Let’s get into the pigs. Before we do want to shout out prop swap. We of course are brought to you by props off America’s number one app to buy and sell sports bets props off baby. You can find the best odds on the NBA championship. The Stanley cup, you know, the futures market is red hot right now. Of course the Knights just got eliminated by the Canadian. So maybe you’re riding a Canadians ticket. I know in the NBA, there’s, there’s a ton of value in some of these props because you know, sons were up big and in that sons to win the championship ticket, probably skyrocketed in value, maybe should have sold it before the game three probably took a little a hit, nothing too crazy.
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Speaker 3 (12m 54s): I can’t wait to list my giants futures on prop swap for the exact amount that you would win.
Speaker 4 (13m 2s): If you can sell your Belgium futures. Oh yeah. Maybe, maybe we
Speaker 0 (13m 7s): Contests. Yeah. We’re actually in a contest. So we don’t have a physical ticket if we would, maybe we would sell cause there the, the future price. I think we locked it in for the contest at six to one there now nine to one to win it all. Portugal’s 11 to one, they match up first tier Belgium is plus one 50 on the money line Portugal plus two 10. I know what you’re thinking. Wow. That’s crazy. You can bet on both sides. You’re guaranteed a victory, not so fast. Get if you’re new to the soccer betting, especially in these knockout stages, they’ll have a draw price.
And so if the game goes 90 minutes, it goes to OT or shootout. You would not win your Moneyline bet. So make sure you look and, and there’s a to advanced bet. That would be like a traditional Moneyline bet.
Speaker 3 (13m 53s): But Billy like a proud father watching Sean, explain how betting on soccer works. Love it. I also throw in the two advanced line because that’s more, you know, the more American like who’s going to win the goddamn game. Yeah. I mean, I don’t know this is, this is what, this is the game of the, the round outside of the England Germany game and yeah, no immediately Rinaldo becomes evil and we’re on belt team. Belgium. He is, he is evil. Let’s hear Billy tell us why we’re wrong.
Speaker 0 (14m 23s): Yeah. What are you doing here Billy 90 minute draws at plus two 15 total two and a half.
Speaker 4 (14m 29s): This is all ones and eight. As the line shifted from the start of the tournament to Belgium being stronger favorites. The, these guys were rated evenly going into the tournament, obviously Portugal coming out of the group of death. But I think that’s a positive because they’ve already seen Germany. They’ve already seen France. They’d gone to two in France in order to qualify Belgium and had it straightforward path. Now I still think these two teams are equal. There’s there’s, there’s two, there’s two variables here. The two extra days off for Belgium, but Portugal are playing in weather in Seville, which is Portuguese weather.
So the Belgiums could be affected by that at some point in a game. So I think both factors do level them out. Obviously two days rest is a lot and I would usually lean towards that. But you know, if it, if it’s called Judy’s weather and your, and your Belgium, this is going to be like a home game. Plus I think you can get more Portuguese people down to severe in Spain. Then you can get Belgians down there. So there may be more people in the crowd as well. So all those other factors, even out, I think when you’re looking at the game, Belgium have won in the last year of peon cup.
Belgium have won the nations league as sorry. Portugal won the last European cup. Portugal won the nations league. Belgium got to the last world cup semifinals, so Portugal and know how to win. And everybody’s looking at his game and there’ll be like over, there’ll be goals
So Portugal, despite the fact being able to go toe to toe with his team, you may see a, you see a back fall for sure. But what you saw in the France game was a five man midfield with only Rinaldo going up front and getting some support from, from Jata. They even dropped Bruno Fernandez. Who’s the key player at Manchester United in order to be more pragmatic. So if you’re doing that against France, I can imagine you’re doing that against Belgium and looking to create chances on the brain. This Belgium backline is very, very slow.
So they are going to need to break for and penetrate that. We’ve heard the broiler and
Speaker 0 (16m 45s): We’ll get penetration. Sorry to interrupt. You just say, you said penetrate a lot. I had to drop it
Speaker 4 (16m 52s): And they’re going to have to, they’re going to have to be able to sit. They’re going to have to store because that there will be the Brunello. We’ll get a chance in this, this defense. It was world cost five years ago. Now you’ve still got the same players and the players that come in and replace them like denier. I’m not as good as the players that have gone like Vincent company. So without the wilderness, but Tonga net, they were great five years ago. Now going up against Chris, John, or an Aldo, he’s not age like a 36 year old. If you look at his body, if you look at his diet, if you look at the thing that you did with the Coke bowls, where he said he was disgusted, that they weren’t give me that water.
If anybody signs him, if he doesn’t say you’ve entered some, somebody signs him in the summer, it’s not going to be like signing a 36 year old. What you need to disregard everything with this. Human is not a normal human is not a 36 year old man, not even a normal day. Exactly. He’s the Brady of, of, of soccer. He can carry on for another four or five years easily. He, he’s not in no rush to go and get that easy NLS retirement money and make a big name for himself in America. He can do that in four more years.
I genuinely believe he’ll play the next world cup as well. So, so yeah, th this is so difficult to call. I just think tactically, I think Portugal will find a way to do it. I do like them as an underdog here, but if your bank, if your bank, if you’re betting this game, that will be one way or very uncomfortable because Belgium are going to be the ones that are pushing forward and having much, much more of this ball.
Speaker 0 (18m 25s): So it sounds like you’re taking you’re, you’re taking Portugal to advance. Is that your, is that your play? What are you thinking here, Billy?
Speaker 4 (18m 33s): Yeah, I like the, I like the draw plus money. I like the tire plus money and I like Portugal to be able to find a way to get through. Cause they just, they just seem like more of a team that will grind, grind their way through. I mean, there’s only one way this game is going to play out. It’s going to be Belgium dominating the ball’s scoring and in Portugal go tiny, change your tactics too late. Cause they have, they have broken through or it’s going to be Portugal story. And then everybody sitting behind the ball, I don’t think this is going to be over three.
I don’t think this is going to be, you know, your three, four goals that people are. I mean, I hope it is because I’m not, I don’t think I’m going to take action on the over underline, but, but I, but I just don’t think it’s going to be as interesting as people are hoping for Kramer.
Speaker 0 (19m 21s): Where are you at? I’m just going to do Belgian new advance in route for, I love the,
Speaker 3 (19m 25s): I love taking the, the 90 minute draw bell. I, for a draw, I’m going to, I’m going to jump on Billy with that. And then I’m gonna say, I think this game goes to penalty kicks. I’ll take, I’ll take the squad and maybe the better analogy for Christiana Ronaldo because he’s an elite level athlete. Not like Tom Brady would be LeBron James. Oh yeah. In that he has been almost impervious to real injury and he has the physical traits that we really haven’t like. We haven’t seen a guy who’s that quick, that fast and also that big.
And you’ve seen like those things of his vertical leap, like, you know, those that say poopoo to soccer, like when, although has a higher vertical leap than most dudes in the NBA. So good, good luck with that. And then I’ll also take Belgium to win in penalty kicks ten one. Oh,
Speaker 0 (20m 11s): Wow. All right. And how long it
Speaker 4 (20m 13s): Just decide that if you can find it over two and a half penalty over two and a half games to go to batteries in a tournament is available at plus one 50. Mm Ooh.
Speaker 3 (20m 23s): I like that. Yeah. I mean it does. It does seem like when you get down to these, these rounds, like teams are more likely to, to, you know, what do they say? Park the bus. Yeah. What,
Speaker 4 (20m 34s): When you get to a tie, you very rarely see a goal in that 30 minutes extra because people get very scared. So it does give you some good value at plus one 50. I love it.
Speaker 0 (20m 45s): All right. Move it over to Italy. Austria. Italy. Of course, like Billy said, coming in possibly a little overrated, minus two, 10 Austria plus 700. The draw sits at a plus three 20 Italy is six 50 plus six 50 to win it. All those futures seem a little, Austria is a plus 15,000. It seems like just judging by these numbers. It should be a blood bath. Does Austria have any chance of hanging in this game belly?
Speaker 4 (21m 18s): I don’t think they do. I think it’s going to be a little bit more difficult than those odd suggest and what everybody else is. Just everybody’s looking past this game. I think that’s fine. I think it’s Lee will end up going through, but this is going to be something that you’ll see a lot in these, in this round of 16, it’s going to be the team that won the group, going up against the inferior team who are a massive underdog. So what they’ll do is they’ll put men behind the ball. I think what’s key here is you have a player in Austria called David Alba.
Who’s capable of playing as a defender. He’s just signed for real Madrid is capable of playing as a left back and he’s capable of playing out. Why Danny midfield now in the first game, Austria played him out wide. He gets north Macedonia and they did really well. And he was really influential. Then when I played against Holland, they moved Alabama to the back and try to sit in and get a draw from that game. And they lost to nil where you see Alabama play, I think would, would indicate how Austria going to start tactically. So for me, it’s going to be a case of if they go for it, they get beat, but they get beat in a game that has some goals.
And if they sit in, they get beat eventually. And there’ll be a little bit more frustrating for you. There may be an employee opportunity where this has dollars at half time and Italy need to like find a way to be more creative and breakthrough later on. So I think this is either going to be like going to 1, 3, 1 8, leave if it’s an open game, which I don’t think it will be. I think we will see Alibaba utilized offensively. And I think Italy will have to break this team down. Sean,
Speaker 3 (22m 51s): Based on that feedback under two and a half goals is plus two 40 really? Oh wow. I didn’t realize it was that June numbers that I’m seeing this one all the way up to three and a half. So yeah. It seems like, well,
Speaker 4 (23m 4s): I like Italy as a other Italy added with the under three and a half for a bit more safety. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (23m 10s): I mean it does, it does seem like this game getting to four goals would be unlikely.
Speaker 0 (23m 14s): Yeah. I’m going to go with the, I liked that. Adjusted a little dog action. Give me under two and a half plus two 40. And where are you at Kramer? What are you like here? What are your fancy?
Speaker 3 (23m 25s): I mean, I, again, I think if they play that style of game, he stated earlier Italy, not exactly giving up goals. So another one may, maybe a sprinkle the draw. Maybe, maybe this is maybe we found something, Sean, maybe we just play the draw on every single one of these games and see how it plays out. I
Speaker 4 (23m 43s): Don’t think they’ll get that, but I do. They’ll, they’ll be resistant for a little bit, a little bit. I give them more credit than other people
Speaker 3 (23m 50s): First half draw. But yeah, I think to me where I’m putting my money is on the under three and a half. I don’t see any
Speaker 0 (23m 58s): If that’s even money than, or minus one 10, that’s that, that feels like a gift. I’m going to go on a, on a ledge and go under two and a half. Plus two 40 Austria
Speaker 3 (24m 7s): Winning with Belgium. Winning would be good.
Speaker 0 (24m 10s): That would be, that would be perfect. Moving over to France, Switzerland, France coming in as one of the favorites here, four plus four 10 on the future to win it all Switzerland plus 10,000. The, as far as the game itself, France, minus 1 92. When in regular time, Switzerland plus six 50 draws sitting at 2 95 and a half. I mean, for, for what a big favorite they are to win the whole tournament, France to winning 90 minutes, a minus one 90 feels like a good price, right?
Billy, or, or am I not seeing this? Right? What am I missing?
Speaker 4 (24m 46s): No, that is a good price. I mean, France about two drawers in his tournament, but they against Hungary, they should have been about four nil up at half time. So they are having problems. They are having problems, putting the ball in the net, which is weird because you have Griezmann and back-pay and Benzema. So at some point, these, these players are going to go off. Ben’s mom already got two against, against Portugal in the last game. So we’re waiting for killing him back eight to turn up. He’s supposed to be the best player in the world after a messy or an elder retire.
So we’re looking for him to kind of go off here. I picked him in my fantasy team and captained them because I think this is a relatively straightforward game for them. The Swiss have been pretty bad in this tournament. They beat Turkey, but Turkey had been one of the biggest letdowns. They, they dominate the game against Wales, but when they played a top team again like Italy, they really did nothing. They, they offered nothing in that game. So I think this will be a pretty straightforward victory. I think France is route to the semifinals is pretty straightforward.
It looks chalky, but France, I saw them at even money plus 100 to make it to the seventies. And I don’t see how you go wrong with that because that’s two outright futures piled together for them to win the next two games. And the, it seems like when the matches actually happen, I mean, what’s this one. So then to qualify, it’s like minus 500. Yeah. So it’s going to be minus 500. And if they get to get Spain, they’re going to be around about minus 300.
According to my maps that doesn’t add up to evens that doesn’t add up to plus 100 that that adds up to around about minus one 40 minus one 50, if my projections are correct. So there’s decent value there.
Speaker 0 (26m 33s): Yeah. I’m I’m with you. So I’m going to take France minus one 90 to get it done the 90 and then France to get to the semi’s at, at, you know what Billy was saying right around even money. That seems like a great price. Where did, where are you at Kramer? I think
Speaker 3 (26m 48s): I heard Billy say that like this team is going to apply a lot of pressure. Maybe they’re down around the goal of bunch. I plucked this out more. This was just icing on the cake. I plucked this out more because I saw how many corners Switzerland had one in the group stage. And maybe I shouldn’t be, maybe I should get out of my spreadsheet on this one. I just did a Google search for those wondering, but the, the over you can get over eight and a half corner kicks in the France Switzerland game for plus one 10 right
Speaker 0 (27m 17s): Now. And between why, what do you root for in there? Get out of bounds over in that particular area to get the core it’s pressure. Right?
Speaker 3 (27m 28s): So I mean, you know, if there, if, if both teams are, are able to find attacking moments, corner kicks will happen. So I want to say, give me over eight and a half quarter cakes.
Speaker 4 (27m 39s): Yeah. You also have corners corners, handicaps offered in some games. So if you think it’s definitely going to play out like that, you can get quarter handicaps as well, corner spreads
Speaker 0 (27m 47s): Pick on the game. Right.
Speaker 3 (27m 49s): I mean, you know, it’s not super fun, I guess I’ll, I’ll ride with you on the France and regular time. And this is, this is one of the games that should be an easy advance. The price is right.
Speaker 0 (27m 59s): Yeah. And to get it, I mean, just looking at the 90 minute price in the advanced price, minus one 90 to minus 500, it seems like a crazy difference. I guess there, you know, Billy pointed out, they had a couple of times, maybe that’s why you’re getting a lower price here.
Speaker 3 (28m 14s): It’s just a different game. When you know that there’s extra time and penalty kicks versus when you don’t like the group stage. So
Speaker 0 (28m 21s): Croatia, Spain squaring off Spain is the favorite minus one, 60 to win in 90 Croatia plus five 50 draws in a 2 95 ratio is 60 to one to win it all Spain eight to one. Sounds like you think a Billy, you have Spain moving on here, but any, any thoughts on when they get it done or any thoughts on, yeah, I don’t know the game in general or it seems like they should move on from Croatia fairly easily. Although, although maybe this is where we start talking dog time,
Speaker 4 (28m 54s): They should like, this is a really young team against a really old team. And both of them play a similar way. Coratia did the opposite where they, they carried on coming to the tournament, the same players they’ve gotten to the world cup final. And it just seems a, a tournament too far. They did manage to put in a performance against Scotland all over their first two games. They look very, very average. Like they weren’t even going to go through some guys who were making bets on Scotland, but you should never bet on Scotland. And maybe that’s like a golden rule. So yeah, but they got past that and Spain ended up being slacky of five mils.
So it’s difficult to really know where they’re at. It is definitely a young versus old game and this is going to be quite possession based like you’re going to see loads and loads of midfield action feels like an under to me in terms of just where the ball’s going to be. Most of the time in the action areas and the, in the middle in the middle third. But I do think Spain will be able to, to get the gold to go through. I don’t know if I like them doing it in 90 though. And if it goes to the penalty, shootouts, Spain will lose this game because they missed their last five penalties in a row and cannot find a penalty taker.
That’s scary. So if you’re going to take a, I would take Spain to qualify and I would take a hedge on Coratia on penalties from the get go in case Spain, can’t get it up
Speaker 3 (30m 16s): Over under is sitting at two and a half with the even money. And then what was the other thing to win on penalties as the head for Kuwait? Croatia is a whopping 15 to one. Wow. Which that’s a, that’s a pretty high price for, for a team to, to win on panel. I mean, I like the idea.
Speaker 0 (30m 36s): I, I, you know, he laid out a great case, but I I’m going to go Croatia to advance, get a little dog action here at plus two 80 and a small sprinkle on the penalty. Yeah. I mean, Spain is
Speaker 3 (30m 46s): Like betting against like a dome team that you just know is going to find a way to choke at some point. What are you on real quick? As a recently made Lord of Scotland, I’m gonna take some, some, some, some issue with what Billy was saying about the great Scottish team and I don’t care. No, no, it’s fine. It’s fine. I got a little bit of land there. I’m a Lord. No big deal. We can talk about it later. Croatia to advance. That’s a fun
Speaker 0 (31m 13s): Bet. Plus, I know, I know that. I know the Scottish fans, they have a phrase Abe. Anyone but England. Yeah. Okay. That’s a little, a soccer stuff I picked
Speaker 4 (31m 21s): Up. I’m just done. I’m just moving around guys because it’s
Speaker 0 (31m 27s): All right. So what’s your official play? Ryan Walla. Well, Billy’s a readjusted. His set up.
Speaker 3 (31m 34s): I, I told you, I like, I like going with you on that Croatia. Alright, let’s do it. That’s a fun one. And I’ll also take the under,
Speaker 0 (31m 42s): Under, do we have a number 200, two and a half. So you’re Croatia to advance under two and a half. Are you on the penalty kicks? Well, I mean, I think,
Speaker 3 (31m 52s): I think I’ll find my way to betting a lot of these games with the penalty kicks. Cause it’s just a fun DJs only. I mean,
Speaker 0 (31m 58s): Pretty much you’re locking
Speaker 3 (32m 0s): In 10 to 20 to one. I mean, there’s a lot of positive VVV right there. Sean.
Speaker 0 (32m 8s): Billy was a Saint. He was a little, little too hot where he was in his room. Sounds like Billy could use a Rocky mountain refreshment, AKA an ice cold Coors light. Oh man, this is just it’s summer. It’s a slowdown summer. Every time I get hot, every time I start sweating out the thing that’s going through my head. I took a hot yoga class yesterday, Ryan. I’m sure you’ll make fun of that. Sweat it out. A lot of taxes from my body. Create more room to put in Rocky mountain refreshment.
Don’t say, I know it’s cold. Cause like the entire time I was there, I was like, oh, can’t wait to get outta here. And indu just crack open an ice cold Coors light it’s cold lager, cold filtered and cold package. It’s literally made chill cores light. So when I choose when I need to unwind, so when you want to hit reset, reach for the beer, that’s made chill, get Coors light in the new look delivered straight to your door with drizzly or Instacart cores brewing company, golden, Colorado, and as always celebrate responsible.
Speaker 3 (33m 13s): What were we going to say around? No, nothing. I was just, you know, you’ve given me this ammunition hot yoga, huh? Yeah.
Speaker 0 (33m 20s): So, I mean, can’t feel great. Sweating out into the oldies. It was got a great sweat in and again, cooled off with a nice ice cold cores, light Sweden, you crane. Oh man. This is probably like one of the better match-ups as far as odds go Sweden, plus 1 35 to win in 90 Ukraine. Plus 2 35 draws sitting at two 15, pretty even on the advanced line, minus 1 65 for Sweden, one 30 for a Ukraine. But you look at the, the odds of win at all.
Sweden 50 to one Ukraine, one 20 to one. So it seems like there’s a little discrepancy here on, on who should on the odds to win the entire tournament and the odds to win this game. Billy, where are you at Sweden Ukraine?
Speaker 4 (34m 7s): It’s a tough one. Sweeten up all the momentum because they’d come in with seven points of winning that group. So they have a very, they’re very, very difficult to break down that Poland game was a little bit more open because number one, you’re going up against the best guy in the world, Levandowski and he, and he took chances. And number two, it didn’t matter to Sweden so they can go out there and play an open game. When we saw them not playing open game against against Spain, they got a draw with 16% of the ball. So that makes them very difficult to break down.
So there’ll be difficult to come up against in this group stage Ukraine as well. I mean, I went toe to toe with Holland. What surprises me most is something we didn’t touch on, but Austrian Ukraine when they played each other in a group stage the draw and you’ll never see this again was even money plus 100 because all they needed to do was play out a draw and they would have both advanced, but somehow Austria won that game. By winning that game, they gave themselves less rest and gave themselves the game against Italy.
And they could be in a spot that Ukraine, which is where they were set up to be. And Austria and Sweden is a much easier game for Australia. So it was confusing to me. I actually had money on the, on the Neil Neil draw because I thought they were really going to play out a draw like as in like, not as any attack intent at all. So it’s where we ended up in his position and it’ll be even stranger if osteo go out and Ukraine or in the next round by losing that game, that will be bizarre. But I just think Sweden, the other bad, same here.
I think they win again that you don’t have to watch. I think there won’t be much GOMAP map action here. Right?
Speaker 3 (35m 52s): Maybe they had a really sweet third string Stryker. They needed to see out on the
Speaker 0 (35m 56s): Field. One last time Nate said fell in love this situation. I
Speaker 3 (35m 60s): Mean, isn’t this another game you just take the draw maybe plus two 15 plus two 15 on the draw here. All
Speaker 0 (36m 7s): Right. I’m going to keep it simple and just have Sweden to advance. Although the Ukraine storyline is kind of interesting, but yeah, Sweden to advance. Keep it simple. England, Germany. This should be a, this should be a really good matchup. Of course I know Billy. We’ll be doing a deep dive on the soccer gambling podcast and make sure you subscribe to the soccer gambling podcast. Rate it, review it. Huge
Speaker 3 (36m 29s): Revenge spot for England for like every war.
Speaker 0 (36m 32s): Yes, 200. Wow. Come on. They, they, they won both wars. I mean, certainly we helped to an O in world wars eat at Germany, England, plus 1 55 during the 90 Germany plus 200 draws sitting at two 15 England minus 1 25 to advance Germany or plus 100. They both are sitting at seven to one to win it all. Billy, are you going with your home club team here? England? Are you, are you taking the hated crowds with Germany?
Speaker 4 (37m 4s): I’m going to break this down, like more tactically on, on my show because I have a lot of thoughts on is in a nutshell, there is a way to, I think England can sell to win this game very, very easily. Now Germany played three at a back. They play four in midfield and three upfront. So these, these two wide players, they play in their midfield. They’re supposed to double up as defenders. They call wingbacks. They’re supposed to get up and down. Now when they are caught out of position, this, what normally happens with this formation is that the three centric offenders are supposed to be high up the pitch because it’s an attacking lineup now because Germany played mats humbles in their team.
They cannot go that far up the pitch because Matt’s humbles will not be able to get back. Now that means that they will sit too deep and they will invite teams on both situations completely, but benefit England. If they played a pace players, then that means a Rashford, sacker or sand show. Any of these players that play, they should be able to terrorize Germany with pace. I’m concerned that we’re going to see a team that has, I mean, Jack really should play, but he should play in a, in a bit in a midfield Cray position, nine a wide position if grilled cheese in a wide position and phones in a wide position that completely neutralizes the advantages, the England Avenue’s game.
So England coming to this also having not conceded a goal, but if they play a back for Germany, like to attack with a five and what we saw against Portugal in that one game that they want to get another back for. We saw this ball spread all over the box, left, right left, right, switched all over the place, giving them a number advantage in the box. So England’s holding midfielders have to be switched on. But again, I would go with the youth. I would go with rice and Belgium. I would not put Jordan Henderson in his team. So for me, it’s going to be all down to team selection. Whether it’s going to be gap Southgate, going for the players that are tried and trusted in the old guard and the people that he likes and there’s always played, or whether he’s going to take a risk and play these youth team play these, these younger players that will play these Germans off the park.
Like I’m talking like they will be getting over the top and in and behind. And there’ll be a huge gap between midfield and deep and the defense. Every five minutes, they’ll be able to sit out there. They’ll be able to explore this. So it’s a tactical nightmare if it’s played right. But unfortunately I’m not the England manager. So I don’t know how he’s going to go.
Speaker 3 (39m 24s): It sounded a little bit like you’re concerned. He might go the same way. He’s always gone, which is not the way you want them to go. And I got to ask because I probably, you know, I tend to root for England over Germany and situations. So I’ll probably be ruined for England here. Why not fun bet. Plus 1 55, they take care of it and regulation. But if Germany were to win this game, they are going to win in a shutout, right? Germany is going to win one, nothing, Germany to win in a shutout Shaun to win a nil as they call it or whatever to win to.
Now,
Speaker 4 (40m 2s): No, this team won’t keep up. I don’t think this thing could keep a clean sheet for water. Plus they shipped two goals to Hungary. So that’s true that the defense is the, the defense is the problem. So I can see England played badly in this whole tournament. So bad and still managed to get through as group winners. They’re now playing here against Germany. The essentially for me, the most interesting part about this game and why I’m giving it so much coverage on my second, last 16 show is because I think it’s a semifinal.
I honestly, bill, but whoever comes out of this should blitz through this half of the draw, even though Germany at the 12th ranked team in the world, and they can’t defend, they should go through England three home games coming up in his tournament if they get through here. So there are this, this is a Wembley, the qualifying or is not, but then they returned to Wembley for a semiotic file. So it’s all set up for them here. If they, if for me, if they play the right team. And I think to some extent they will be able to beat this Germany team.
But if we go out as usual, it will be penalty shoe out. And as usual there’ll be unexcused, I don’t know.
Speaker 0 (41m 16s): I’m going to be a little more optimistic than Billy. I’m taking the England to advance minus 25. All that being said, do you have England moving on Billy?
Speaker 4 (41m 25s): Yeah, I do. I think, I think, you know, you’ve got to be very, very tactically on the word systems to see that they slow at the back. So I think this decision will be made and the right decision will be made and we will see more pace in this team, Phil photons. Great. And he’s had a great season, but I don’t think he belongs in this game. This isn’t a game where when we come up against Sweden or Ukraine, probably Sweden, if we get through this game, then we really will need those skill players where we have to break a team down.
We have to do something special. We have to play a special pass or anything like that. This is not that game. This is a case of they’re slow. They push up high up the pitch and attack really an attack in a lot of numbers. And if we catch them continuously on the break we’ll score goals. To me, it’s common sense.
Speaker 3 (42m 15s): It’s yeah. I, I, nothing better than when I step onto the pitch as a youth soccer coach and I see someone who is playing a high press with slow players, it’s easy. You just have to get back. You just need people willing to run their ass off the whole game.
Speaker 0 (42m 32s): Netherlands Czech Republic, Netherlands, minus one 50 as the favorite Czech Republic for 30 on the, to win a 90 minutes, 90 minute trial, plus 2 85, Netherlands, eight 50 plus eight 50 to win it all. And a Czech Republic plus 10,000 to advance Netherlands minus 3 0 5 Czech Republic plus two 20. Is there, is there any case for Czech Republic moving on here and surviving?
Speaker 4 (43m 0s): Yeah, definitely. They, they have, they, they did get a draw against Coratia. They they’ve won against Scotland. Look, they’re up there. They’re organized England. England scored the one goal against them, but they couldn’t score a second. So there’ll be one of those teams that are organized in Patrick Schick. They have a player who scored the goal at a tournament. They have a player who should be, should attract the interest of top clubs. So this check team are coming back. They had some really, really bad years. Like you’re a 96, they’re in the final Italia back in 1990, they were a strong team as well.
We’re coming out. Obviously we lost the era where they had players like Ned VAD and Peter check. And then we had a little down period for the Czech Republic, but they seem to have decent players again. So I don’t think this will be easy for Holland at all. Like this will be a game where they’ll find them difficult to break down, Holland them missing defensive players as well in Vandyke, the just come back into the team. So that’s a good thing for them as well. But yeah, this isn’t, this, isn’t a hole in team that are unbeatable. This is a whole team. They’ve got a really nice draw that I identified and I think there’ll be Czech Republic, but I don’t think this is going to be easy.
I don’t think if they go out here, I’m not going to be stunned and call it the upset of the tournament. I don’t think it will be that
Speaker 0 (44m 16s): I’m writing the, the underdog angle. Give me a Czech Republic. Plus two 20. The fact that they were able to hang in, some of these groups has for 30 minutes what’s plus four 30 them to advance and to win it regularly. Yeah, you’re right. Let’s go plus four 30. Well, we don’t need any because
Speaker 3 (44m 32s): Don’t worry about it. It’s going to happen. It’s going to happen because Netherlands has elapsed, like Billy saying this, this is a professional.
Speaker 0 (44m 38s): Yeah. Catch him sleeping. Let’s go check plus four 30 Kramer you on you riding. No, no,
Speaker 3 (44m 44s): No. I think, I think it’s a fun story, but I’ll go the other way. I’ll take that.
Speaker 0 (44m 47s): I guess. What’s your official play? I’ll take
Speaker 3 (44m 50s): Netherlands minus one 50. I think, I think they’ll love it in
Speaker 0 (44m 53s): The, in the 90 million you take in Netherlands minus one 50.
Speaker 4 (44m 58s): Yeah. I think, I think if it’s Netherlands, it’s in a Nike and I do like that price. I saw that today. I think it’s a case again, it’s like a lot of these games, it sounds like, oh, this guy has the same opinion a lot, but these games are like that. You’re looking at teams that came third in their group going again, teams that came first. So what’s going to happen. They’re going to, they’re going to realize there’s an inferiority there and they can set up to defend and look, these are the teams that are not out. They may have come third, but they still got, they still got through. So they’re organized enough.
And they’re obviously all top players to be in this tournament to make it difficult, to break them down. It’s not going to be, we’re not going to see any five Nils here in this, in this round of 16 for anyone. So yeah, it’s even, even in Switzerland, France, which for me is the easiest game to pick. It’s going to take some time to break Switzerland down. And once you do, that’s when games open up and then you may see two and three when, when teams come out. But initially like the idea of all these teams is to survive the first 30 minutes.
That’s the mentality of all of these things, that game. Now you
Speaker 0 (46m 1s): Mentioned that it’s just survived the first 30 or 40, 45. 30 minutes. Yeah. Wait, I thought it’s 90 minutes in a game. First, the 30 minutes
Speaker 3 (46m 12s): In the, in the first 30 minutes, you don’t want to come out, have a, like a lapse, let someone give up a goal because then you have to completely alter your strategy potentially. And it’s just, you know, he
Speaker 0 (46m 23s): Can’t, you did you keep, you kept using the word
Speaker 3 (46m 25s): Scared, which is kind of, kind of right. Like there’s a little bit of that point playing not to lose,
Speaker 0 (46m 29s): But yeah. And I wonder in the same way that we hammer these first half unders in March madness, is there, is there a theory to maybe playing some first half unders in the knockout stage of the hero? Honestly,
Speaker 3 (46m 43s): I think as we’ve been talking, I’ve kind of been thinking about it, but maybe we just play the tie. We play like the tie for the first half sits around plus like one 10. I think I see a plus 1 25 in the Netherlands game. Maybe you just blast
Speaker 0 (46m 58s): Every time or staff time. I liked that I can get it.
Speaker 3 (47m 11s): It as you take under a half goal for every first half. Cause they’ll, there’ll be as low as plus one 40 plus one 70, but as high as plus 2 0 5. Yeah. So maybe that’s a, that’s a fun angle to play. Just root against scoring. And Ty Sean, you’re really getting into soccer dude. Like you’re, you’re really finding
Speaker 0 (47m 29s): Here I come, soccer, Wales squares off against Denmark Wales, plus four 40 in the 90 Denmark, minus 1 20 90 minute trial, 2 25 Denmark, 19 to one to win at all whales, a hundred to one Billy Denmark cruises here. Or, or do whales give them
Speaker 4 (47m 48s): A game. Yeah, I’ve been doing this whole show trying to work out the order you’re going in because this is the first game that gets played of the whole round. This, it gets played tomorrow at five. So I dunno what you, I literally, I found a bracket and I copied and patient okay. When you use the bracket, that makes sense. Now what you’ve done, right? So yeah, this is the first games happens tomorrow. Five o’clock while I was in Denmark, Denmark have the big emotional story. They actually had that incident with Christian Erickson and decided to go out and play 90 minutes later, which was a mistake because they lost the, one of the worst teams in the tournament.
They were then up against it. They had to get a result against either Belgium or Russia. And they were beating Belgium a hard time. And then they just, you know, got outclassed in the second half. But then we saw them. What happens when they play a team at their level against Russia, this is what they should have done to fill. And they absolutely pasted Russia in that game for one with whales, whales, they’re very well-organized they sit back. There were a lie pretty much solely on Don Garrett, Val and Aaron Ramsey to create boredom. And that’s what they’ll do again here.
So this isn’t going to be a cakewalk for, for, for Denmark, but I think we’ve that Erickson story behind you and that momentum. Now I do see Denmark advancing here in this. I know that’s plus money. So I would just take the, the Moneyline play.
Speaker 3 (49m 11s): Yeah. I mean, it, it, Denmark seems like a cheaper price than it should. And maybe we roll the dice on the 90 minutes at minus one 20, cause they’re definitely going to win. They’re going to advance. And I think, I dunno. I mean, like I said, I think a lot of people were calling them out as a team that you really liked to get to that round of eight because of the path they might have. And now we’re seeing it.
Speaker 4 (49m 34s): I got that future. I lost day. One thing I said, Wales, they’ve done really well to get to this point, considering their manager is suspended for beating up his partner. So that’s Ryan Giggs, Ryan Giggs, the X man United player. Who’s who’s suspended at the moment for this competition. So they have a temporary manager in charge and they were everybody’s tip to go out in the group stage. But Turkey were very worried, poor like turkeys, young players that were being tallied quite highly did not turn up, but it’s tournament.
So I don’t know how good Wells are. They been dominated in two games and they managed to beat Turkey. So I do think Denmark will witness on the line. They are that they are the bad team, but with whales, you just don’t know last, last tournament in this tournament, I got to the semi’s and they have a weird story that can go both ways, either. They so far, they played for this manager, but these not the real coach. This is a coach that you know, that that’s come in very temporarily and Robert Page. So it’s a hard one to know what way it will go in terms of emotional stakes, but a Denmark a better, and they should win this.
No, maybe they just didn’t like
Speaker 0 (50m 42s): The other coach Denmark minus one 20 and 90. Keep it, you know,
Speaker 3 (50m 47s): Also just for those wondering team, Ryan has officially revoked him. Ryan Giggs is whatever his name was is privilege,
Speaker 0 (50m 56s): No longer ship card, no longer a reference.
Speaker 3 (50m 59s): He’s not getting the ramrod special commemorative coffee mug this month.
Speaker 0 (51m 4s): All right. Let’s any, any futures worth hitting on? I I’m just I’m team Belgium all the way riding this thing out, Billy would or any to win it, all futures that are jumping out at you before we get to a lock and a dog.
Speaker 4 (51m 19s): Oh yeah. Okay. So I’ll save the lock then as, as the, as the future for me, don’t, don’t, don’t take a winner. Don’t take a winning side in England, Germany game. Just take them and take them to advance to the final Germany plus 400 England plus three 50, I believe. And that’s fine. I mean, if they, if they beat each other, you only need to navigate the two more games and that will be against Sweden or Ukraine. And then someone from the other side of the draw and Netherlands, Denmark, Wales, et cetera.
So I just don’t see it, but especially with England, having that semifinal game at Wembley Holland in England is a pretty even matchup. I would say if it’s not happening at Wembley stadium with the government coming out and removing restrictions for the semi vitals in the final, because we were scared of losing the, the final in the semifinals to Prague,
Speaker 3 (52m 17s): To Budapest. Sorry. And I think so funny enough, I, you know, I follow a formula one and that they’ve just announced. They’re going to have a full crowd at Silverstone, the track and in the UK under the guidelines that they’re doing research. So I wonder if they’re doing some research at the, the year of 20, 20 semifinal final. It sounds like Billy has talked me out of taking them anything with Netherlands. And I’m just going to buy some, some England to advance to the final. Maybe some of England to win it all at 7, 7 50. I haven’t seen some plus nine hundreds out there,
Speaker 0 (52m 48s): So yeah, I’m going to do that. I’m going to go. I can’t, I can’t in good conscience. I have a ticket on Germany, England at 7 0 1. And then obviously it’s still going to be riding that Belgium.
Speaker 4 (52m 59s): I said to advance to the final, not to not to win it.
Speaker 0 (53m 4s): I know I’m saying, I’m saying to win at all. I’m going to, I’m going to say they hoist the cup. Billy
Speaker 3 (53m 10s): Knows how the, the Juju works. He’s
Speaker 0 (53m 12s): He doesn’t want to jinx it. I get it. All right, let’s do it. Lock dogs, something spicy. I’ll start things off. As the soccer expert, give me France, minus one 90 as my dog or my lock for my dog, I will take a Czech Republic to get it done in 90 minutes at plus four 30 something spicy. I will do. I mean I could do under in the Italy Australia game, but I’ll do Croatian a win by penalty kicks at 15 to one that feels like a fun long shot.
Kramer. What’d he got locked dog something crazy. Oh,
Speaker 3 (53m 51s): The lock let let’s let’s lock up the draw in the, the Belgium Portugal game. 90 minute drop plus two 15. I’m not, I’m not, no, I’m going bigger for my dog belly for my dog. I’m going to actually, no, sorry. Lock up the corner kicks over eight and
Speaker 0 (54m 13s): A half. I forgot wrote this quarter kicks over eight and a half of the France Switzerland game dog
Speaker 3 (54m 18s): Draw in the, in the, write it all down. Sean, the Belgium Portugal game and for something spicy, I’m staying in that game. Belgium wins and penalty kicks tend to one. Ooh,
Speaker 0 (54m 32s): Belgium wins and penalty kicks two.
Speaker 3 (54m 33s): And I want us to experience that dramatic moment of this team that we have carrying us to, to notoriety in the futures draft marketplace.
Speaker 0 (54m 44s): Yeah, I don’t need that. Sweat. Billy, are you someone in the chat wanted to know John was, are you rocking a PlayStation sweatshirt? And he was wondering, are you, are you going to be getting a PS five with all the money you’ve been cashing lately?
Speaker 4 (54m 56s): I actually, if I turn my camera around, there’s a
Speaker 3 (55m 25s): Oh man. There’s nothing worse when the kids get in trouble and we got go, I got to take away the video games. Cause then I can’t play video games.
Speaker 4 (55m 32s): Yeah. That’s not my peers five. That’s what he got for Christmas. So, all right.
Speaker 0 (55m 36s): Well is, is PS five in the penalty box? Let’s do it. Billy lock dog, something spicy. What do you got for us?
Speaker 4 (55m 42s): All right. So the, the lock for me is going to be France to reach the semifinals. So I’m seeing here at, at somewhere, anywhere between plus 100 to minus 1 0 5, the maths doesn’t add up for me because they’re around about minus 500, I believe, or minus 400 to qualify in this round. And they will be if they come up against Spain or Coratia, they will either, they will be somewhere between minus two 80 to minus three 50 against either spinal Coratia. It doesn’t matter what one.
So the way these numbers have been done, it doesn’t make any sense. So the value is here for France to reach the there’s only vinyl because this Paula, if you do it individually, but France to qualify in this game, but for them to qualify against the winner of Spain and Coratia, it’s not going to give you plus 100 or minus 1 0 5. It’s not going to be close. It’s going to be, it’s going to be minus 40 minus 50. If my maths on the fly is correct
Speaker 3 (56m 39s): I’m to, I’m going to run that math. But yeah, I think you’re, I think you’re right by a mile, the minus 500, it’s a tough, tough price. Even if they’re only minus 300 over Spain, it’s it’s still a better value minus one 70. So, you know,
Speaker 0 (56m 53s): Th that’s that’s that’s that’s sports investing 1 0 1. Yeah. Great value. Fine. Billy, what about the dog here? What do you got?
Speaker 4 (57m 1s): Yeah, I think if you’re looking for something from the round of 16, my, my biggest, the dog I like is Portugal to find a way to, to get through Belgium for something bigger than that. At bigger odds, ride a ride England to get to the final at plus three 50, as I said, don’t bother taking any side in a Germany England game. I would just take the, whoever you think is gonna win. Take them to reach the final. I think that’s, that’s a solid way to play that.
Nice. And
Speaker 0 (57m 32s): Then spicy, any sort of long shat prop parlay, anything, any, any, anything like that? Shake your fancy
Speaker 4 (57m 42s): Briefly?
Speaker 0 (57m 43s): No, I mean, that’s, that could be it. If you want to make Portugal your dog,
Speaker 4 (57m 55s): Yeah. I’ve not got anything like that. I stand by my over two and a half penalty shootouts in his tournament band. That’s a fun, that’s a fun prop. It’s fun too, because like you, you know, you always either lost you another three weeks. That one. So I mean that, I mean, I, unless of course, you know, you’re out of it and there hasn’t been a single panel issue out in around a 16 and you’re worried because you’ve got seven games left and you need three shoe outs. I don’t think you’re going to be in our spot. I think we will see a couple of shoe outs in his last 16.
And that puts you in a good position where you only need one and a quarter. Semi’s a big Dino. This takes you all the way up to the final. I think another way, a long shot, the longest long thing I would have would be France, England final, which would be 10 to one. But then you can also take bronze Germany final, and just take both, both sides of that. Giving you 10 and 12 to one. I like that.
Speaker 0 (58m 57s): All right, Billy, appreciate you calling in. Make sure you give a Billy a follow on Twitter at S G P soccer. Make sure you subscribe to the soccer gambling podcasts. Oh, on the sports gambling podcast network, going to be doing a deep dive on all these games going, going hard enough. Yeah, this is a good surface level. You know, some soccer for some Americans and the non hardcore fans, but are plenty of hardcore footy fans and yeah. Make sure you check it out. Sports gambling, or sorry, soccer, gambling pod, including Sean’s stuff.
I will be tuning in getting my deep dives, some extra nuggets. Thank you for participating in the sports gambling podcast. Poor this one’s getting me back at some Sean stacking, the muddy green, and he is Ryan. Best
Speaker 3 (59m 44s): Of luck to you, Sean. Sean soccer,
Speaker 2 (59m 47s): Green crib.
euro_2020_knockout_stage_predictions__ep__1036_-transcript.txt
Displaying euro_2020_knockout_stage_predictions__ep__1036_-transcript.txt.
