Betting outrights to win a major championship isn’t just something to be done the week of the event. It provides for bettors to speculate months in advance on players that not only have a great chance of winning but provide value. With tournaments far in the distance, books often are asleep at the wheel to properly value the players. Most won’t adjust the odds unless a player has proven on-course success between now and then. This provides bettors the opportunity to grab a player at a much more appealing price than they could a few months from now.
Last week, I presented my early picks to win each major championship in 2021, along with a quick golf course preview of each tournament. Using early leans from a golf course perspective, here are some undervalued golfers you should bet before their price goes up (with odds courtesy of MyBookie.ag).
2021 Masters – Matthew Fitzpatrick (70/1)
70/1 for Matthew Fitzpatrick is too low. Fitzpatrick enjoyed his best statistical season on the PGA Tour to match his usual stellar self on the European Tour. Fitzpatrick finished 2020 with the 16th most total strokes gained per round on the PGA Tour, the highest of his career in the United States. He also is on the heels of winning the DP World Championship on the European Tour to finish 2nd in the Race To Dubai Standings.
In terms of Augusta National, Fitzpatrick has demonstrated past success. He finished T7 at the 2016 Masters and will make his 7th start at Augusta National in 2021. As discussed in the 2021 Major Winners column, he is entering a window where a players’ average strokes gained at Augusta National increases significantly.
Fitzpatrick should only continue to build upon his success in the upcoming months. His current 70/1 price to win the Masters is likely the lowest it will be before April.
Other Undervalued Golfers To Consider
- Matthew Wolff – 40/1
- Tommy Fleetwood – 45/1
- Scottie Scheffler – 50/1
- Viktor Hovland – 55/1
- Lee Westwood – 100/1
2021 PGA Championship – Tyrrell Hatton (45/1)
Like Fitzpatrick, Hatton is coming off his best year as a professional. Hatton won twice in 2020 and had the best statistical season he ever had on the PGA Tour. Hatton was 8th in total strokes gained on the PGA Tour in 2020, finally matching his strong showings across the pond.
Unfortunately, the only blemish to his year was his performance at the majors. Hatton missed the cut at every major in 2020. But his game is perfectly suited to the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island, site of the 2021 PGA Championship. The golf course demands the perfect blend of length and accuracy tee-to-green, and should throw firm and fast conditions to the players. These conditions are ones in which Hatton shines brightest.
Between his current undervalued price and his fit to the golf course, Hatton is great to bet right now before his price starts to rise.
Other Undervalued Golfers To Consider
- Matthew Fitzpatrick – 50/1
- Sungjae Im – 55/1
- Joaquin Niemann – 80/1
- Abraham Ancer – 100/1
- Cameron Smith – 100/1
- Kevin Kisner – 125/1
2021 U.S. Open – Matthew Wolff (50/1)
The name of the game at the 2021 U.S. Open is power. Bomb and gougers dominate leaderboards at Torrey Pines. Next year’s U.S. Open won’t be any exception. That’s why my most confident early pick from the 2021 Major Winners column was Bryson DeChambeau as your 2021 U.S. Open Champion.
Like DeChambeau, Wolff proved at Winged Foot that he possesses too much power for golf courses with long, narrow, penal rough setups. Him and DeChambeau were head and shoulders better than anyone that week because they were one of the few who could break the golf course off the tee. While the USGA set up the golf course to make “accuracy matter”, DeChambeau and Wolff employed a strategy to hit it as far as they could to leave them the shortest club possible into the green. It worked to perfection. Torrey Pines should be set up in the exact same manner to allow them to use the same strategy.
Wolff is also on the precipice of a major break through on the PGA Tour as one of the rising stars of the game. As soon as he wins his price is going to skyrocket upward. Not only is Matthew Wolff a great fit for Torrey Pines, this is the lowest his price will be before the tournament.
Other Undervalued Golfers To Consider
- Scottie Scheffler – 45/1
- Joaquin Niemann – 80/1
- Cameron Champ – 100/1
- Jason Kokrak – 150/1
2021 Open Championship – Kevin Kisner (175/1)
The Open Championship is the major most likely to see an out-of-nowhere winner. The golf course setups tend to give the shorter and accurate players more of a level playing field than the long hitting bombers that dominate American golf. Age and experience also is a defining characteristic of recent Open Championship winners. Seven of the last 10 winners of the Open Championship were over the age of 30. In addition, every player who has won the last nine Open Championships had at least one Top 10 at the event before their victory.
Kevin Kisner checks all of these boxes. He’s an accurate player with a tremendous short game and can get hot on the greens. He’ll be 37 at next year’s Open Championship. And he finished runner up at the 2018 Open Championship at Carnoustie to Francesco Molinari.
Kisner also is coming off a solid year on the PGA Tour. Over his last 50 rounds Kisner is gaining 0.95 strokes per round on the field. He nearly won the RSM Classic a month ago along with four other Top 5 finishes in 2020. His current ranking of 25th in the world is the highest it’s been since he won the WGC Match Play in 2019.
For all of these reasons, Kisner is undervalued at 175/1 to win the Open Championship. Bet this now before the books wake up and adjust to his true value.
Other Undervalued Golfers To Consider
- Patrick Reed – 40/1
- Tony Finau – 40/1
- Webb Simpson – 50/1
- Lee Westwood – 70/1
- Brendon Todd – 125/1
- Zach Johnson – 175/1
