Last week, we saw some of the leans in the Week 10 Referee Report come to fruition. I want to make a clear point; do not blindly follow these NFL referee stats and place bets solely off these number. This is a great handicapping tool to use when deciding on the bets you place. However, it shouldn’t be the only tool in your gambling toolbox.
That said, let’s look at handful of NFL referee stats that really stand out in this week’s report.
In nine games officiated this season, Corrente has called 10 more penalties on the home team. As a result, home teams only have a week percentage of 44% thus far this season. However, the most glaring stats for Corrente is the total in the games he has officiated in is 47 points, 2-7 to the Over. Furthermore, road teams are averaging around 23 points per game. Lastly, keep in mind in your handicapping despite these stats Cardinals as the road team are taking on of the worse defenses this week against the Seahawks.
Lean: Cardinals/Seahawks Under 57.5
I’m going back to the well with Brad Allen. Allen’s officiated games are averaging 53 points per game with a 6-2 record to the Over. Furthermore, road teams are averaging close to 30 points per game. Allen is assigned to the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints game. The total in this matchup sits at 50.5. Lastly, home teams are 2-6 straight up, and 2-5 against the spread.
Lean: Saints/Falcons Over 50.5, Falcons +5
Vinovich has one of the most glaring stats of all the refs. In the games officiated by Vinovich the total has averaged 41 points per game. The total record is 2-6 to the Over. Home teams are averaging only 18 points per game. Bill Vinovich is assigned to the Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings game in Week 11.
Lean: Cowboys/Vikings Under 48.5
We saw last week that Boger officiated the Chargers and Dolphins game. Boger’s stats heavily favor the home teams. As a result, home teams have a +8-point differential. Furthermore, home teams are 6-3 straight up, and 6-3 ATS. Boger has also called 18 more penalties on the road team thus far this season. Boger is assigned to the big game night matchup between the Los Angeles Rams vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Lean: Bucs -3.5
FULL WEEK 11 REFEREE ASSIGNMENT