The NFL season is deep enough into the year that bye weeks have started, and slates are a little shorter. The good news is that we’ve got nearly a month and a half of data on most teams and have a pretty good idea of what these teams are. There are a few angles you’ll want to have in your back pocket for Week 7. Check out our NFL betting analysis for Week 7 and let it ride!
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How should I bet on the NFL this weekend? Week 7 Analytics & Trends
NFL Betting Analysis: Teams to Follow
Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals enter Week 7 as a short favorite after a bye week in Week 6. The injury report for the Bengals looks a lot shorter this week than in Week 5. Also, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson may miss another week with an ankle injury. Jackson has returned to practice in a limited fashion, but he’s notorious for holding out until he’s completely 100%. The line indicates that he’s going to miss this game, but it could flip if he’s a full-go in practice before Friday.
Cincinnati ranks first in the league in third-down conversion percentage on offense. The Bengals are converting third downs at a 50% rate this year. The Ravens have struggled to get off the field at times this year. Baltimore allows opponents to convert 39.5% of their third downs into first downs.
On the defensive side, the Bengals have been solid against the run this year, and match up well with the Ravens’ ground attack. Also, if Lamar Jackson misses this game, the Bengals could choose to stack the box and dare backup quarterback Tyler Huntley to beat them.
The Bengals are off the bye week, and we’ve already seen the Ravens drop a game at home. Let’s lay the points with the Bengals as a short favorite against a team that may be starting a backup quarterback or a potentially rusty Lamar Jackson.
Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals -1.5
Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders have been a spread darling this year. Kirk Cousins and crew are 5-1 against the spread this season, but books keep listing the Raiders as underdogs. Las Vegas is a home dog yet again this week, and they get to face a Rams team that isn’t quite the super team that everyone was predicting.
Rams wide receiver Davante Adams is out with a hamstring injury, but the real story is how banged up the Rams’ defense is. Defensive linemen Poona Ford and Kobie Turner were placed on injured reserve, while linebacker Nate Landman and defensive back Trent McDuffie both missed practice on Wednesday.
The Raiders don’t have a very good rush offense, but the injuries to the Rams’ front seven could make it a bit easier for Ashton Jeanty to find gaps. Los Angeles has been solid when teams try to air it out, but has been gashed on the ground. The Raiders have been able to do enough against opponents to hang around and keep games within the number more often than not. They keep covering, especially as an underdog, and we’re going to keep riding them ATS until they obviously fail.
Best Bet: Las Vegas Raiders +4.5
NFL Betting Analysis: Teams to Fade
Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys have been a mess this year. The Cowboys defense ranks among the worst in the league, and their offense has sputtered despite most of their weapons staying in the lineup this year. They travel to Philadelphia for Sunday Night Football and are laying more than a field goal. Who are these Cowboys to lay points on the road against anyone? We just got done seeing the Cowboys fail to cover against the Packers in Green Bay on Sunday Night Football. The Eagles don’t have the offense that the Packers do, especially with their starting quarterback out for the year. However, the Eagles can still rush the passer and defend the pass.
Saquon Barkley could return to the lineup for Philadelphia. The Eagles should also have most of their pass catchers available for Sunday Night.
It’s an understatement to say the Cowboys have a bad defense. Advanced metrics have Dallas as the least efficient defense in the league. Teams have gashed the Cowboys just about every way possible this year. Philadelphia isn’t very efficient on the offensive end, but they should be able to move the ball against Dallas. Everyone else does. The Eagles also get to play at home, and they’re catching 4.5 points as an underdog. The Cowboys may score a few points, but their defense is poor enough to give it right back even to a Tanner McKee-led Eagles offense. The side you’ll want to have here is Philadelphia plus the points.
Best Bet: Philadelphia Eagles +4.5
Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts head to Minnesota this Sunday after firing their general manager this week. Indianapolis has struggled on both sides of the ball this year, and it was time to make a change in their front office. A front office change can often lead to changes on the roster as a new leader comes in and looks to clean house.
The Colts also have to play the undefeated Vikings. Minnesota has also been a spread darling this year with a 4-1 ATS record compared to a 5-0 actual mark.
The Vikings are also off a bye week and have been very tough to beat in Minneapolis over the past two years. The Vikings have the most efficient defense in the league so far this year, and they’re very good at making quarterbacks uncomfortable. Minnesota has the best pass rush rate in the NFL this year. They also have the best percentage in the league in early-down success rate and third-down success rate against. Indianapolis is going to struggle to move the ball and score points.
The Vikings offense is good enough to keep them in games this year. They’re nothing special on the ground or through the air, but they only have to be so good when their defense plays at an elite level. However, the Indianapolis defense is 22nd in EPA per pass allowed and 32nd in EPA per rush allowed. The Vikings could choose to play keep-away and bleed the clock with their ground game while their defense doesn’t give up much. The Vikings should choke out the Colts this weekend and keep this one comfortably outside the number for most of the afternoon.
Best Bet: Minnesota Vikings -6.5
The Sports Gambling Podcast
For more analysis of every NFL game in the 2026-27 season, tune in to the Sports Gambling Podcast. Sean “Stackin’ The Money” Green and Ryan “Real Money” Kramer talk about each game on the entire slate. Listen for input on ATS and moneyline NFL picks every week!
