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2020 Masters Prop Bets and Matchup Picks

Masters Prop Bets

What are some of the best Masters prop bets to bet on? Please check out The Masters Golf Tournament 2020 Preview for the types of golfers you should look to target for your Masters picks. With that in mind, here are my favorite Masters prop bets and matchup picks (with odds courtesy of MyBookie.ag).

Masters Prop Bets:
Top 10 Positional Props

Dustin Johnson +110

Of the top favorites, I see a path where one of them busts out of the tournament. The player I see the least possibility of busting out of the tournament is Dustin Johnson. With how well and complete a game he has at the moment, it’s hard to imagine him not being in the mix on Sunday fighting for the win. Nothing is ever guaranteed when betting golf, but this is as solid a Masters prop bet can get.

Bubba Watson +240

Only Dustin Johnson has gained more strokes per round tee-to-green than Bubba has over everyone’s last four tournaments. Bubba is gaining 2.16 strokes per round tee-to-green in his last four starts and has a wonderful course history at Augusta. What holds him back is the putter, but given his familiarity with the greens there’s a good chance he turns that club around this week. Bubba has tasty 3/1 odds for yet another Top 10 finish on one of his best golf courses.

Matthew Wolff +330

If we’re to believe the golf course is set up for Bryson, then it should set up well for Matthew Wolff too. With Augusta National playing longer due to the wet weather conditions, Wolff has a significant advantage over the field with his length off the tee. Wolff cooled off at the CJ Cup and ZOZO primarily due to poor performances off the tee. Some of this was attributed to an ankle, but if that’s healed then he should dominate off the tee once again. While I feel he’s too green to go the distance and bet him 40/1 to win, I feel strongly about him finishing inside the Top 10 at Augusta this weekend.

Top 20 Positional Props

Erik Van Rooyen +350

Erik Van Rooyen has the tools tee to green to have an advantage over the field this week. While erratic off the tee, Augusta National should play wider thanks to the soft conditions in the fairways and rough. That’ll help keep the ball in play for him. If that’s the case, Van Rooyen is one of the longest hitters in the field and will enjoy short irons into receptive greens all week. He’s also in great form, gaining just under a stroke per round on the field in his last four starts. He has the ceiling of a Top 10 finish, but grabbing a safer option at 3/1 for a Top 20 is a great alternative.

Sebastian Munoz +400

What started as a fantastic end to his 2020 PGA Tour season has turned into a hot start for 2021. Starting at the Northern Trust, Munoz is quietly one of the most consistent players in golf. His consistency is thanks to fantastic performances tee to green. Over his last four tournaments, Munoz has gained 0.93 strokes per round off the tee and with his approach play combined. He also has some decent length off the tee as he carries it about 285 yards on average. That’s above average for this field. Another solid finish is in the cards for him, which makes his price of 4/1 for a Top 20 a good bet.

Others to Consider:

  • Cameron Champ +200
  • Cameron Smith +200
  • Paul Casey +225
  • Lee Westwood +225
  • Jason Kokrak – +225
  • Si Woo Kim +400
  • J.T. Poston +500
  • Bernd Wiesberger +550
  • Christiaan Bezuidenhout +600

Missed Cut Props

Webb Simpson +300

Webb Simpson surprised everyone last year with a very solid showing at the Masters. Before that, however, he had struggled there. Before last year, Simpson had missed the cut in three of seven Masters with a high finish of T20. The weather conditions and his form also dampen his outlook too. The golf course will play long and the greens will be receptive. His advantage in the field with his scrambling should be neutralized. In addition, he’s struggled with his irons of late, which is one of the better parts of his game. Over his last 50 rounds, Webb has only gained 0.2 strokes per round on approach. While a good clip for many, for him that’s well below par. There’s some value in betting Webb Simpson to struggle and miss the cut at this price.

Others to Consider:

  • Tommy Fleetwood +240
  • Rickie Fowler +210
  • Ian Poulter +160
  • Matt Kuchar +160
  • Billy Horschel +150
  • Henrik Stenson +125
  • Marc Leishman +120
  • Kevin Na +120
  • Gary Woodland +120
  • Brendon Todd +110
  • Graeme McDowell -125
  • Chez Reavie -125
  • Andrew Putnam -135
  • Sung Kang -150

Masters Prop Bets:
Tournament Props

Low Score of the Tournament – Under 64.5 (-135)

Because of the conditions, it’s expected that the winning score this year will at least be double digits under par. A double digit under par winning score has happened six times in the last 10 Masters. Of those 6, five times had a round of at least 64 during the tournament. With soft conditions and little wind to contend with, the golf course is ripe for someone to go out and go low. Someone should be able to shoot at least 64 at some point in the tournament, and it might happen on Thursday.

Cut Line – Over 145.5 (-135)

It’s widely expected that Augusta National should yield a lot of birdies. But even with scoreable conditions in the past the cut line rarely has gone as low as +1. In the last 15 Masters, the cut has only reached +1 twice. Even in ideal scoring conditions, the golf course will play tough for those who don’t have their A game or face conditions that just aren’t suitable for them.

While I think the top echelon of players won’t have much trouble with the golf course, due to the composition of the field there’s a higher percentage of weaker players in the field than most years. This field was frozen back in March, and there are several players who are no longer in as good of form as they were back in the Spring. This includes players who qualified because either they won a tournament in 2019 or were in the Top 50 in the world in the Spring that have plummeted down the official world golf rankings since then.

The field also includes several past champions with almost no chance for success, as well as a lot of amateurs who are hard pressed to make the cut. And several unexpected names will bust out early too.

All the talk leading up to the Masters is how gettable the course is. But by hook or by crook, the cut line should still be at least +2 or worse. Over 145.5 is the play.

Matchup Props

Xander Schauffele -1.5 Strokes over Rickie Fowler (-130)

Typically top favorites are paired up against players around the same range as them in the odds. That’s why it’s a gift (albeit a suspicious gift) that MyBookie has offered up a Xander vs. Rickie Fowler prop. On the stat sheet, this one is a no contest. Xander enters this tournament gaining 1.31 strokes per round tee-to-green over his last 16 rounds. Rickie enters this tournament losing 0.3 strokes per round over his last four tournaments. Xander should beat Rickie by at least two strokes over the course of the tournament. There’s also a possibility Rickie misses the cut and this one is cashed on Friday.

Lee Westwood +1.5 Strokes over Ian Poulter (-120)

Both have solid histories at Augusta National, but overall Lee Westwood’s superior ball striking should beat out Poulter’s short game and putting. In years where the golf course plays firm and scrambling was more important, Poulter would have the edge. But this year’s Masters is all about the performance off the tee and with the irons due to the soft conditions at the golf course. At each players point in their careers, Westwood is superior in these categories. He should at least keep it within 2 strokes of Poulter over the course of the tournament.

Sebastian Munoz over Billy Horschel (-110)

The praise for Sebastian Munoz is above. As for Billy Horschel, the golf course conditions aren’t setting up well for him. Horschel would thrive at a Masters that featured colder, windier conditions where his magician-like scrambling and putting would save him strokes. But on a long and soft golf course he doesn’t have the fire power to contend this week. Missing greens or failing to hit it within the same area code of the pin is a bigger penalty this week than most. Horschel’s form is also lousy, as he’s lost 0.62 strokes with his ball striking in his last four tournaments. Munoz is the superior ball striker should beat Horschel head to head in this coin-flip prop.

Tyler Duncan over Nate Lashley (-125)

This one could turn into a pillow fight. But Duncan has the edge over Lashley as the superior ball striker. Over his last four tournaments, Tyler Duncan has gained 0.83 strokes per round with his ball striking and 0.37 strokes per round on and around the greens. While Nate Lashley is the superior putter, he’s lost 1.17 strokes per round with the ball striking over his last four tournaments. Tyler Duncan’s consistent ball striking is enough to give him a chance to make the weekend. Lashley will likely need a molten hot putter in order to make it. I’ll back the better ball striker on this matchup prop

Golf and NASCAR analyst for SportsGamblingPodcast.com. Co-Host of the Golf Gambling Podcast on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network. Hit him up on the SGP Slack Channel at SportsGamblingPodcast.com/Slack

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