Hopefully you all had a profitable night last night betting on UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs Ige. If you did, you obviously were smart enough to realize that I was being sarcastic in my betting preview for it and you were supposed to bet the opposite of what I recommended.
I’ve got another kick at the can this Saturday with UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs Benavidez. So let’s get it on, c’mon.
All odds courtesy of MyBookie
Deiveson Figueiredo (-200) vs Joseph Benavidez
Saturday’s main event is an exciting rematch for the vacant UFC Flyweight Championship. In their first meeting this past February, Joseph Benavidez won round one before the two clashed heads in the second frame, sending Joe B loopy, allowing Deiveson Figueiredo to capitalize and knock him out shortly after. The only reason the title is still vacant is because the Brazilian came in overweight for the initial fight. I expect him to win this one also, headbutts aside, and probably violently once again.
Jack Hermansson (-110) vs Kelvin Gastelum
I’m going with the slight favorite in this top middleweight contender matchup between Jack Hermansson and Kelvin Gastelum. ‘The Joker’ will be the far bigger of the two, with four inches of height and a six inch reach advantage over Gastelum. He’ll have the advantage on the feet, and is a crafty enough grappler to counter the wrestle-heavy Gastelum.
Marc Diakiese (-165) vs Rafael Fiziev
After going on a three-fight skid, once-hyped prospect Marc Diakiese has turned things around, winning his last two. I’m looking for him to make it three-straight after Saturday, as he’ll be the larger and more experienced fighter in his matchup with Rafael Fiziev.
Luana Carolina (+100) vs Ariane Lipski
I’ll take Luana Carolina for even money in her flyweight bout against Ariane Lipski. Carolina is a very active striker, which doesn’t bode well for Lipski, whose strike differential (strikes landed minus strikes absorbed) is in the negative.
Askar Askarov (+155) vs Alexandre Pantoja
This flyweight battle is a real hard one to call, so let’s roll the dice and take the underdog and try to get some plus money. Askar Askarov looks like he could be a future title challenger, and Alexandre Pantoja has proven to be the gatekeeper to the top of the division, so we’ll see if Askarov really has what it takes.
Roman Dolidze (-190) vs Khadis Ibragimov
Octagon newcomer Roman Dolidze is a perfect 6-0 in his nascent pro mixed martial arts career, finishing all six of his opponents (three via knockout, three via submission). His all-around game should be too much for Khadis Ibragimov, who has dropped both of his UFC fights.
Grant Dawson (-235) vs Nad Narimani
Bigger, younger, better – Grant Dawson is the pick in this one, as he looks to stay perfect in this UFC career (3-0 thus far, 15-1 overall). He’s won his last two fights via submission, so might be worth a prop bet here.
Joel Alvarez (+285) vs Joe Duffy
I’m really going out on the limb with this one and taking huge betting underdog Joel Alvarez. But he’s way bigger (five inches of height, four inches of reach) and younger (six years) than Joe Duffy, and he’s got momentum on his side, as ‘Irish’ Joe has only fought once since November 2017, and hasn’t won a fight since March of that year. Alvarez, meanwhile, won his most recent UFC appearance last summer and has finished all 16 of his pro wins.
Montel Jackson (-210) vs Brett Johns
‘Quik’ Montel Jackson checks all the boxes in this one – he’s bigger, has better striking, and is on a three-fight win streak. Let’s make it four-straight after dispatching Brett Johns on Saturday.
Amir Albazi (-185) vs Malcolm Gordon
Two UFC newcomers square off in this flyweight tilt. I’m betting against my fellow Canadian and going with Amir Albazi due to his better resume.
Arman Tsarukyan (-210) vs Davi Ramos
I almost went for the underdog in grappling wiz Davi Ramos, but I think youth (10 years his junior) and the size advantage of Tsarukyan will carry the day here.
Sergey Spivak (-145) vs Carlos Felipe
UFC rookie Carlos Felipe might be undefeated at 8-0, but he’s fought nowhere near the level of competition as Sergey Spivak has. Plus, on top of that experience, Spivak will have the size advantage in this heavyweight curtain jerker.
Return on Investment: -3%