When filling out a DraftKings lineup (use the promo code SGP), picking among the favorites is a fairly safe proposition. It’s when you have to choose between a pool of golfers down the line is where you make or break your chance to win big.
Here’s the critical decisions you’ll face as you fill out your lineup for the 2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (values courtesy of DraftKings).
Golfers Valued $8,000-$8,900
- Daniel Berger – $8,900
- Cameron Champ – $8,800
- Alex Noren – $8,700
- Russell Knox – $8,600
- Kevin Kisner – $8,500
- Rafa Cabrera Bello – $8,400
- Max Homa – $8,300
- Chez Reavie – $8,200
- Adam Hadwin – $8,100
- Kurt Kitayama – $8,000
I think Alex Noren’s ownership percentage in this tier won’t be too high this week primarily because he doesn’t have much good history at Pebble Beach and it’s his first time playing this event overall. But Noren has improved significantly since last year’s missed cut at the U.S. Open in Pebble Beach and comes in with great ball striking numbers. Over his last three tournaments Noren has gained about 15.5 strokes on the field with his approach shots over his last nine ShotLink measured rounds. He also has the reputation of being a great scrambler and while he hasn’t putt all that well lately, that’s an area he’s shown to get hot with in his career. As long as his irons remain as solid as they have been in his last few outings he should be useful for DFS this week.
On the flip side of the coin, I expect Russell Knox to be one of the more popular picks of this tier. As long as he continues to produce how he has then it should be fine to follow the crowd with him. Knox has gained over 20 strokes on the field tee-to-green in his last 20 ShotLink measured rounds, and after a little lull with his putting he’s gained 8.7 strokes on the field on the greens in his last 7 rounds. Knox has also gained just under 0.8 strokes per round across Pebble Beach, Monterey Peninsula and Spyglass Hill and is primed for another solid performance in this event this weekend.
It looks like DraftKings woke up and priced Adam Hadwin more fairly this week, as his price is up $900 for this event. Hadwin started off strong at TPC Scottsdale before fading on the weekend to a T40 finish. In his first event back since his long layoff for the birth of his child he gained a little over 0.5 strokes per round on the field tee-to-green and only about 0.15 strokes per round on the greens. I think those numbers will be a little better this week at a golf course he has solid history on and more suits his game.
Golfers Valued $7,500-$7,900
- Tom Hoge – $7,900
- J.B. Holmes – $7,900
- Jim Furyk – $7,800
- Scott Piercy – $7,800
- Vaughn Taylor – $7,700
- Kevin Na – $7,700
- Lucas Glover – $7,600
- Scott Stallings – $7,600
- Pat Perez – $7,500
- Nate Lashley – $7,500
J.B. Holmes still isn’t getting all that much respect in the pricing despite two straight solid performances in a row. Maybe it’s because it’s assumed once you take the driver away from him at a place like Pebble Beach he’ll crumble, and at other less-than-driver golf courses that may be true. But in his career he’s gained over a stroke per round on the field in 23 rounds at Pebble Beach. Unfortunately it’s an entirely different story on Spyglass and Monterey Peninsula, where he’s only gained about 0.15 strokes per round at those places in his career. Still, he typically putts great on poa and his form is pretty good. I don’t see a whole lot of reasons why he shouldn’t continue to be used in DFS.
I have a slight reservation that Tom Hoge may have peaked and is going to burn a lot of DFS lineups this week. After gaining over 15 shots on the field tee-to-green in his three tournaments leading up to TPC Scottsdale he only managed to gain a little over one stroke for the entire event last weekend. He was able to still salvage a T25 finish thanks to a strong putting performance, but he’ll have to improve his ball striking numbers if he wants to be a star in DFS once more. He’ll be one of the more popular plays in this tier for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, but he should still be used until he stops producing.
We haven’t seen Jim Furyk since the fall, so no one truly knows the state of his game right now. Where he last left off on the PGA Tour he showed really strong ball striking performances but struggled on the greens. In his three fall starts he gained over 11 shots on the field tee-to-green but gained only 0.18 strokes on the greens during that stretch. That only was able to produce a high finish of T17 at the Safeway Open. Given his good track record on all three golf courses I think it’s safe to assume he’ll play about as well as he did tee-to-green in the fall, so it’ll just come down to how well he putts this week. I’m willing to take that chance at his price.
Bottom of the Barrel (Golfers <$7,500)
Adam Long – $7,300: Long snapped himself out of a funk last week at TPC Scottsdale by gaining just under four strokes on the field tee-to-green, including just a shade under five with his irons. It was his best ball striking week since the Greenbrier and it amounted to his second Top 10 of the year. I think he can carry forward the momentum to this week as he has a good track record on slow poa annua surfaces in his career.
Xinjun Zhang – $7,200: Zhang rediscovered some of the good form he showed in the fall with a T25 finish at TPC Scottsdale where he gained a little over 2.5 strokes on the field tee-to-green. That was his best ball-striking performance since the Houston Open. Zhang has only one career appearance in this event but showed well at both Pebble Beach and Monterey. If he can carry over the momentum tee-to-green from TPC Scottsdale he could add another decent showing in this event.
Chesson Hadley – $7,100: Hadley had seen a nice improvement in his ball-striking leading up to TPC Scottsdale, but out of nowhere he lost over six strokes to the field tee-to-green. Before that he had gained over 21 strokes on the field tee-to-green in 16 ShotLink measured rounds and has a very good history on both Pebble Beach and Monterey Peninsula. A return to friendlier confines could reignite his game and yield a nice bounce back at this tournament.
Others to Consider: Kevin Streelman ($7,400), Nick Watney ($7,300), Sung Kang ($7,300), Jimmy Walker ($7,200), Matthew NeSmith ($7,100), Cameron Tringale ($7,000), Doc Redman ($6,700), Tim Wilkinson ($6,600), Bo Hoag ($6,500)