For those who missed it, please check out the 2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview and Betting Strategies on what types of golfers to target this week for your bets.
With that in mind, here’s who I like this week at Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula (with odds courtesy of MyBookie.ag):
Pre-Tournament Futures Bets (with Top 10 Prop Odds)
Patrick Cantlay – 12/1 (+125): Cantlay is probably going to be a guy you see a lot in this space as long as the odds are decent. His 12/1 price is a little high for my liking but I have a hard time finding reasons why he won’t win this week. He’s one of the best ball strikers in the world, a good scrambler and has significantly improved his putting throughout the course of his career. That checks all the boxes for me this week, and he could set up a monster 2020 with a win at Pebble Beach.
Brandt Snedeker – 20/1 (+200): Brandt’s probably going to be a chalky pick this week because of his great history on both Poa Annua golf courses and at Pebble. He missed the cut last week at TPC Scottsdale to derail some momentum he built at Torrey Pines, but oddly enough it was because he lost strokes to the field on the greens. I don’t see that happening two weeks in a row on a surface he’s comfortable on. In addition, Brandt has gained 8.2 strokes on the field with his approach shots over his last nine rounds and remains as one of the best scramblers in the world. Despite the expected popularity I too side with the public and love his chances to return to the winners circle.
Matthew Fitzpatrick – 22/1 (+220): Fitzpatrick fits the mold of a player who theoretically should perform well at this tournament. His first appearance in the field last year was derailed by a poor round at Spyglass where he lost four strokes overall to the field. But his history at Pebble Beach is pretty good as he’s gained 1.9 strokes on the field across last year’s AT&T and the 2019 U.S. Open. He’s a great iron player and scrambler and has the reputation as one of the best putters in Europe, but his talent hasn’t really translated anytime he plays in the United States. He has the tools to be a consistent winner on the PGA Tour, and maybe this is the week he finally breaks through.
Branden Grace – 28/1 (+280): Has Grace rediscovered the elite form he showed from 2015-2018 where he was a mainstay in the Top 50 World Rankings? After an abysmal 2019 season he has played wonderful golf over the last few months. He has three Top 10’s in his last 4 starts including a victory at the South African Open. Grace has shown great ball striking stats over on the European Tour and carried that over to TPC Scottsdale where he gained just under five strokes on the field with his approach shots and recorded positive strokes gained overall with his scrambling and putting. He’s played well at Pebble in the past but has struggled at the tougher Spyglass Hill, but if he can straighten that out he should once again be in contention.
Others to Consider (with Top 20 Prop Odds):
- Russell Knox – 45/1 (+175): Knox has played really solid golf tee-to-green where he’s gained over 20 strokes on the field in that category over his last five ShotLink measured tournaments. He also has improved his putting of late after a bit of a lull in that area. He has solid history on all three golf courses in the rotation this week and could finally put it all together for a win.
- Tom Hoge – 70/1 (+250): He had a little bit of a hiccup last week at TPC Scottsdale with his ball striking but coming into that tournament he was one of the hottest players in the field tee-to-green. He still managed to salvage a T25 finish out of it and if the ball striking comes back a bit he could once again be a dark horse on Sunday to win.
- Kevin Streelman – 100/1 (+350): The results have been pretty barren for Streelman of late, but over his last six ShotLink measured rounds he’s gained over a stroke on the field tee-to-green and has a very strong track record in this event. His putting has been very up and down this year but on a familiar track he’s comfortable at he could find some magic to be a factor on Sunday.
- Cameron Tringale – 140/1 (+500): Like Streelman, the results on the leaderboard lately have been a little lacking. But Tringale has been solid with his irons and scrambling in 2020 and seen his finishes often dictated with how well he’s putt for the weekend. That club has been streaky for him over the last few weeks but he has the other skill sets present to be a long shot winner.
Other Props and Matchups
Alex Noren Top 20 – +250: I can’t quite pull the trigger on picking him at 40/1 to win the tournament because of how shaky his putter has been this year and his lack of good showings at Pebble. But he has the reputation as a good scrambler and has stuck his irons well over his last few tournaments. His ceiling is probably a lot higher than this, but I’ll stay conservative and only back him for a finish inside the Top 20 this weekend.
Matt Kuchar -130 over Viktor Hovland: Hovland’s priced highly this week because he has a great track record at Pebble. He won the 2018 U.S. Amateur there and had a great showing in last year’s U.S. Open. Maybe that’s enough to shake him out of his funk but I don’t like what I’m seeing from him. The problems are a regression in his iron play and his continued woes with his scrambling, which he needs to fix if he’s going to reach his potential on the PGA Tour. That’s not a good recipe for any of the three golf courses he’ll play this weekend. I like taking Kuchar head to head against him, who should have a relatively safe floor on that end of the matchup.
Adam Hadwin +1.5 Strokes over Cameron Champ (-135): In Cam Champ’s first appearance at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am he finished T28 and had an awesome week at Pebble where he gained 1.8 strokes on the field tee-to-green. But I have a hard time buying into him being a stud on the golf course because of his struggles with his short game and irons. While he’s putted well lately that’s been another area he’s had deficiencies in too during his brief career. A player like Adam Hadwin more fits the mold of someone who should play well in this tournament, and I like him getting 1.5 strokes on Cam Champ in this matchup.
Adam Long +1.5 Strokes over Harry Higgs (-135): Harry Higgs was a fan favorite last week at TPC Scottsdale where he pretended to ride his golf club like a bucking bronco all the way down the 17th fairway. But he doesn’t have a fan in me this week at Pebble Beach. Higgs gained over eight strokes on the field on the greens last week while putting up pretty poor ball striking numbers, and those haven’t been all that impressive either since the calendar turned to 2020. That screams regression to me. Give me Adam Long getting 1.5 strokes on Higgs this week. Long missed the cut last year in this tournament because of poor showings on Spyglass and Monterey Peninsula, but his form this year suggests a much better result in 2020.
