For those who missed it, please check out the American Express Golf Preview and Betting Strategies for information about what types of golfers to target this week for your props and futures bets.
With that in mind, here’s who I like this week out in Palm Desert (with odds courtesy of MyBookie.ag):
Pre-Tournament Futures (with Top 10 Prop Odds)
Sungjae Im – 16/1 (+160): Do I love that he likely will be a pick the “experts” think is a dark horse only to end up being the trendiest pick of the week? Nope! Nor do I think this price on him is good either. But he’s going to win on the PGA Tour sooner or later, and in a tournament with a weak field that’ll be a birdie bonanza he fits the prototype of someone who’ll come home with the trophy. Sungjae’s ball striking once again was solid at the Sony Open even in the tough windy conditions, and his putting remains one of the best on the entire PGA Tour. This pick definitely has a little bit of FOMO in it, which is definitely not a great betting strategy. But I just can’t resist the temptation and the way his form as been a win is just around the corner.
Scottie Scheffler – 28/1 (+280): Like Sungjae, a win is right around the corner for Scottie Scheffler. He made a seamless transition from the Korn Ferry Tour to the PGA Tour with three Top 10’s in seven starts and has gained over a stroke per round on the field tee-to-green. In order to get over the hump, however, it’ll come down to two things: his scrambling and putting. Both were up and down in the fall, which is expected from a rookie. One of these weeks he’ll get it all together, and I like the odds of that happening on a trio of easy golf courses with favorable scoring conditions.
Matthew Wolff – 30/1 (+300): Other than a hiccup at the CJ Cup, Matthew Wolff’s sophomore campaign has been very good. Wolff has a pair of Top 20 finishes in two of his three full-field events and played well at the limited field Sentry Tournament of Champions. Wolff has the length needed to overpower all three golf courses and has matched solid ball striking with good putting all season long. He’ll need both to post a score worthy enough to put himself in contention, and with his natural ability he stands a great chance to notch his second win on the PGA Tour.
Jason Kokrak – 40/1 (+400): Anyone who has ever backed Jason Kokrak knows what they’re getting into before the tournament. There are very little concerns about his ball striking tee-to-green or his ability to hit long tee shots to set up short approaches into the green. But it certainly turns into an adventure once he gets there. Kokrak’s chances will come down to his frustratingly inconsistent putter that ran white hot and ice cold during 2019. Will we see Dr. Jekyll or Mr. Hyde? At a venue he has a good track record in, maybe it’ll be the former to help score his first victory on the PGA Tour.
Others to Consider (with Top 20 Prop Odds)
- Lucas Glover – 60/1 (+260): Glover is in the same boat of Kokrak in that he’s a fantastic ball striker and has a great track record at PGA West, only he’s constantly held back with his putting. Backing him this week is like playing Russian Roulette with both massive upside and downside.
- Denny McCarthy – 70/1 (+300) & Carlos Ortiz – 125/1 (+400): Both were featured this week in the DFS column, and both are worthy for consideration of a longshot victory.
- Nick Taylor – 140/1 (+550): Taylor’s enjoying a solid fall and possesses both length off the tee and solid putting to card lots of birdies – two important attributes for the eventual winner at PGA West this week. A decent flyer at 140/1 given recent form.
Other Props and Matchups
Sebastian Munoz Top 20 – +330: Munoz is a guy I mentioned in the DFS column this week that I feel is primed for a bounce back. For all the reasons I like him in daily contests, I like him just as much to finish inside the Top 20 at over 3/1 odds.
Doc Redman Top 20 – +850: Redman flopped in spectacular fashion at the Sony Open with an opening round 77, but he ended the week on a high note with a second round 69. His ball striking appeared to be OK but his putter was pretty poor. That’s been a streaky club for him all season long, but a swing the other way with it could land him inside the Top 20 on the final leaderboard.
Cameron Tringale -125 over Adam Long: Tringale is a player I like in DFS this week. As for Adam Long, he’s cooled off since his solid start to the 2019-2020 season as he’s struggled with both his ball striking and putting over his last three ShotLink measured tournaments. In addition, he’ll have to fulfill all his pre-tournament responsibilities with the media and local charities as the defending champion. That might end up to be too much of a distraction away from fixing the ailments in his form. Tringale should best him head to head.
Andrew Putnam -115 over Kevin Na: These two are basically the same player. Both of them are pretty inefficient tee-to-green but keep afloat on the leaderboard with fantastic putting. Putnam has been doing that a lot better than Kevin Na of late, who comes into this tournament after withdrawing from the Sony Open with a neck injury and has seen his form dramatically fall off since winning out in Las Vegas. Putnam also has a decent track record at this event, and should beat Kevin Na one on one.