What does that really mean? In the futures market, to date, you’ve only ever to wager on a team to win a championship or title, but never able to bet on a team not winning it … until now.
— Marc (@MeltzVegas) June 1, 2019
When comparing the market of sports betting to stocks, the ability to short a long term stock was always the one leg up the finance market had over the sports betting one, until now. You were never able to “short” or bet against teams for a season until this two way market that Circa opened came into place. It’s a great first step, but hear me out, it needs to take the next step eventually.
Now, I stated on the podcast that Circa sports deserved all the credit in the world for innovation in the market place, but I have a small beef with them. I understand the no is going to be juiced, hell, it’s the same reason why the yes’ pays out so much, but largely these numbers are un-bettable, at least in the NFL-the other markets actually are somewhat manageable and what I would consider a fair price of a long term sell or short:
When it comes to NFL, I understand that parlaying futures is usually reserved the offshore and local markets of the world and Vegas has traditionally taken a stance that they will not allow it anywhere, but I have to ask the question, how many people are actually betting into the not winning Super Bowl market with odds being priced from -1100 to -30000.
If sports books want to create a fully functioning two way market with buys and shorts, they need to adjust their odds or possibly input a 2-3 team parlay limit on the no market.
The problem may arise that Circa could instantly create so much liability by lowering their “no” odds, and parlay happy bettors would flock to the window for their version of a Lions, Jets, and Bills parlay thinkings it’s free money, but either prices have to adjust or parlays need to be allowed.
I want to be very clear, by no means am I trying to say any of this in a negative way, I think Circa deserved all the credit in the world, but this is just the first step in creating a fluid two way market, the only problem is it’s not remotely actually bet-able as the market stands right now.