The Golden State Warriors will put their dynasty on the line tonight against the Toronto Raptors in what will be the final game in Oracle Arena. Here are some props to get you through the night:
Boogie Cousins Over .5 Threes (-120)
It should not be forgotten that right when Kevin Durant went down with his achilles injury in Game 5, Steve Kerr went right to Boogie, who had not yet played in that game. The man promptly responded with 7 straight points that constituted a life preserver for the Warriors’ season.
With a dearth of options on the wing and an absolute need for more offense, I expect the Warriors to do-or-die with more Boogie minutes here in Game 6, especially with Kevon Looney beaten up (and questionable). Additionally, Boogie is the Warriors best floor-spacing option outside of the Splash Brothers and Quinn Cook; I don’t see how the Warriors plan on winning this game without shooting a ton of threes. Out of the four games where Boogie has played 15+ minutes in these playoffs, he’s taken less than 3 three’s just once. I fully expect 3-5 attempts out of him, and you’ll only need him to hit one. Combine the attempts with the extent to which Toronto should be keying on the Splash Brothers, and Boogie should have a few good looks at it in this game.
The Warriors need Boogie to be as close to himself as he possibly can; don’t forget, this is a guy who last year was shooting 35% on 6 threes a game. As long as he plays with confidence, the attempts should be there for him to hit a three in this game.
Pascal Siakam Over 18 Points (-115)
Spicy P has taken over 14 shots in every single game of these Finals. While his normal efficiency hasn’t been there, I expect him to play well in this Game 6, where the Warriors will refuse to let Kawhi Leonard beat them on his own. No KD means more help has to go all around, and Pascal benefits more than anyone else from the extra rotation of the Warriors defense. Again, the shooting volume has been there, but he just hasn’t shot it well or finished well in this series (aside from Game 1). You have a 55% shooter in the regular season who is shooting 39% in his last 4 games.
If the shooting volume is what it has been throughout these finals, you’re really just counting on the dude to shoot 40%+ from the field in this game. I think he can do that; he has been getting wide open looks from three consistently in this series and I’m hoping for a regression given how many he’s missed.
You rarely get a chance to bet a player prop where the number is lower than the player’s average. While the disrespect to Pascal is warranted based on how he’s shot the ball in these finals, open looks will be there and as long as he isn’t “afraid to shoot,” 18 points will be well within his grasp.
Andre Iguodala Over 8.5 Boards + Assists (-115)
This is one where I think the line is just wrong. While Iggy is averaging around 8 combined boards and assists per game in the playoffs this year (right on track for the current line), he’s also only averaged 29 minutes per game. There just is no way, barring injury, that Iggy only plays 29 minutes tonight. That number will be closer to 37 or 38 given the do-or-die nature of tonight’s game.
Per 36 minutes in these playoffs, accordingly, Iggy is averaging close to 11 combined boards and assists per game. This prop is 3-2 in these finals, and I can’t see Iggy not making an impact in this game. With KD out, look for the Warriors to both push the pace and look for creative ways off ball to get Steph and Klay free for good looks. The Warriors have no choice but to go vintage Warriors tonight, and that involves Iggy being a truly elite role player. He goes for over 8.5 boards + assists tonight.
Let it ride!
