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Daily Fantasy Baseball: Weekend Picks, Whims & Warriors (June 7-9)

Daily Fantasy Baseball - Weekend Picks, Whims, And Warriors 060719-01

 

Every sports bettor has that one team (minimum) whom they’ve developed a uniquely turbulent relationship with, nearly like that of one found on a Jersey Shore.  For every Sammi to a Ronnie, there’s a White Sox to my wins and losses of unforgettable proportions. The bittersweet turmoil on each slate they’re featured remains with staggering allure, considering how enamored by their ability to produce such a high ceiling on any given night (yet at such an inconsistent rate) while rarely dragging any ownership along with them, making them a prime candidate to hitch your wagon on to bink a GPP.

The problem is trying to catch them in the right night.

I may also carry a stubborn inability to let go of a particular memory of yesteryear: an instance that I caught lightning in a bottle against the Kansas City Royals but had been so tilted the other direction by the end of a weekend chasing it that I had nerfed the play with caution down to a much smaller pay grade of tournaments, and still stinging from the an unfortunate case of “What Could Have Been” when in full recollection of the stark contrast between $100 and $4,000. Yet I determinedly still don a torch of hope on a per-slate basis when it comes to spearheading the Chicago White Sox blowup stack, regardless of how pathetic it may seem.

Call me a fool, but this one couldn’t be more of a glaring reminder, on a similar weekend where the White Sox are featured road underdogs to an extremely subpar Royals team. Sometimes you just can’t talk someone out of dumb love (or hopefully hedge betting).

 

Chicago White Sox Stack vs. Royals:  My Unrelenting Chase For Redemption

While I don’t expect anyone to follow me on this quest down this path to 3-run likelihood, the argument in favor isn’t an awful one considering the matchup. It doesn’t take a fool in love [with a particular recurring bet] to tell you that the starting pitching of the Kansas City Royals is nothing to write home about, and this weekend introduces no severance of that notion. Featuring the likes of Homer Bailey (4-6, 6.08 ERA), Brad Keller (3-7, 4.50 ERA), and Glenn Sparkman (1-1, 3.77 ERA), there couldn’t be a better re-enchantment with wishful thinking by riding into and through the weekend on the White Sox sails.

Kansas City Royals pitching ranks 27th overall in swinging strike percentage (9.8%), while the Chicago White Sox hitters rank second overall in the very same category (12.7%). This provides us a coin-flip in this category, so it’s anybody’s bet in this categorical regard and I naturally will side on the sake of chasing my whims here. The Royals starting pitching as a unit ranks second worst in SIERA with a 4.99, while the White Sox are toward the middle of the pack (19th) in wRC+ (92).

Ambidextrous hitters like Yolmer Sanchez, Yoan Moncada, and Leury Garcia provide affordable upside as stack anchors, while Yonder Alonso (lefty), Tim Anderson, and Eloy Jimenez (righties) provide plenty of power in a promising spot throughout the weekend. And at the same time one would likely try dissuade you of the White Sox strikeout downside (highest K% team in May, 27.7%), I could easily twist your arm the other direction by telling you that the Royals starting pitching ranks second-to-last in the Major League in Strike-to-Walk ratio at 1.95.

I know it isn’t the most convincing argument in the world, but the constantly diminished aggregate ownership of the White Sox keeps them a candidate to pay off big if a stack happens to hit for you. And with three days of matchups that you couldn’t nearly ask for better with in terms of opportunities to put up several runs at low ownership, the White Sox are the dream that keeps on dreaming for me when it comes to trying to bink a GPP.

 

Can Padres Power Prevail Nats’ Pitching In Prime Position?

A sucker for cheap alliteration aside, I can’t help but wonder how the rest of the weekend will transpire in the remaining three games of a four-game series featuring the stalwart pitching trio of Corbin/Scherzer/Strasburg against a heavy underdog Padres team that, on paper, doesn’t have the greatest of matchups by comparison but in all figurative speaking has a puncher’s chance given their ability to pop the ball out of the park, even despite playing home field in what’s considered to be a pitcher’s park.

And with aggregate ownership that’s assuredly going to be toward the bottom of the list for each of the main slates, San Diego provides an interesting upside to what we already know will be chalk pitching. When it comes to taking chalk pitching versus a group of power hitters on their home field, I love taking the hedge every time.

Despite having the highest strikeout percentage in the Majors at 26.9%, along with 23th in wOBA (.306), and 22nd in wRC+ (88), the San Diego Padres are 12th in ISO (.185), 7th in hard contact % (40.2%), and 3rd overall in Home Run to Fly Ball ratio (18.6%). So I suppose the theme of this post should be, “Where There’s A Will…”, because I’m all about the low-owned coin flips this weekend.

The Nationals bullpen is among the league’s worst, with a near 7 ERA (6.57) and 3rd overall in Home Runs Per Nine Innings (1.59). Hunter Renfroe, Manny Machado, Wil Myers along with Austin Hedges and the return of Fernando Tatis Jr, all provide affordable power and significant upside. And if the Padres can continue to get to the stud starters as they did in five innings during the opening game in this series against Patrick Corbin, then the sky’s the limit (literally and proverbially) in terms of potential runs scored in this series on behalf of Padres bats (and likely in general).

Hopefully the lightning will land once again, and this time my stakes will be in much thicker fires in hopeful preparation in case it happens to do so. Happy cashing to you, and here’s to hoping that we meet again on the greener side.

Chris "Topher" Giordani is a sports gambling nerd who derives his passion for such from a number of avenues, particularly the ilk of fantasy sports.Currently working and residing in Orange County, California, daily fantasy sports consume a vast majority of his attention span on any given day. Reviving his sports rant podcast in 2019. #FadeTheChalk

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