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Five Things: We Learned From NFL Week Seven

Five Things: We Learned From NFL Week Seven

 

1. Updating The Dying NFL Spread

Again, over the last four years, the NFL spread has mattered two to three times a week within the NFL

This week The Titans covered +7, Cleveland covered +3.5, And The Giants (somehow) covered +3.5.

YTD: 18 times out of 103 games (17%)

Moneyline it. Don’t take the points and reduce your break-even point. Conversely, parlays-not teasers are more profitable, despite the stigma.

Remember-When a favorite wins the game straight up, they cover the spread 85.1% of the time over the last three-plus years and when an underdog covers, they win the game 82% of the time.

2. Sometimes The Public Wins Too

With the two biggest decisions for the house on NFL Week Seven being on The Patriots -1.5 and The Vikings -3.5, Joe Public cleaned up this week. Professionals were lining up to take what looked to be the biggest Pro’s Vs. Joe’s stand off of the NFL season and well, down goes Frazier. In truth, I think we as handicappers have this notion that professionals don’t take any sort of losses while the truth is the best people in the world can touch 60%. As professionals are known to do, it should be stated they got out in front of the line move with The Bears grabbing +3.5 at open, but the spread not mattering as much came into play as Mitch Trubisky came just a yard short of tying the game.

The public also wasn’t ready to buy in on The Jets turn around as over 80% of tickets written had The Vikings laying just over a field goal on the road. The game was never really in doubt as Minnesota ran away 37-17. Fading the public is one way to handicap, but these types of week will happen if you’re a contrarian bettor. The professionals did get two games back after grabbing The Giants +4 and The Browns +3.5.

3. The Jaguars Are Blacklisted…After One Last Buy

As I touched on in last weeks column:

I largely gave Jacksonville’s defense a pass when it came to allowing 30 points to the NFL’s version of the air-raid offense of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, but there isn’t much of an excuse for allowing forty points to the worst offense in football-at least from a passing perspective-in The Dallas Cowboys. Yes, Dak Prescott still managed to go under 200 yards passing and cash yet another under passing yards prop even after being spotted forty yards on his first drive, yet Dak and Elliot ran at will and as we’ve seen time and time again Jacksonville is not built to come from behind.

Yes, they miss Leonard Fournette and Blake Bortles has more weapons than ever, but you’re not going to win many football games allowing 40 points to anyone. The defense has a chance for a get right game against Houston coming up, but if they no-show again, this team may be in serious trouble.

If you followed me during the first to third series for baseball this season, this Jacksonville team reminds me of The Dodgers and the same way I couldn’t quit them. Buy low and sell high is the name of the game, and if you had faith in The Dodgers you were rewarded with +300 for their division, +600 for the Nation League, and up to +1200 for The World Series. I’m done backing this team week to week right now, but I’m buying one final future on them for their division, AFC, and Super Bowl. No, I don’t think they can hold a candle to New England or The Chiefs, but Prop Swap is just a phone call away.

PS-Buy my Notre Dame 25/1 ticket (pays $2600) available on Prop Swap. You know you want to.

4. The NFC East Just Got More Interesting

As we build upon the last issue (again):

Philadelphia Eagles To Win The NFC East (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars To Win The AFC South (+110)

I’ve written at length about how Philadelphia just doesn’t look right. Do I think they have another Super Bowl run in them? No, I don’t think anyone in the NFC can touch The Rams right now. That being said, the rest of their division is simply so bad, just because Wentz is showing some rust and Philadelphia is showing a bit of a Super Bowl hangover, it doesn’t warrant the price reduction.

Washington provides the most value at +300, but despite The Cowboys randomly showing up, until you can throw for over 200 yards in an NFL game you’re not going to be able to hang. The Giants were effectively eliminated last week and things look like they could take a disastrous turn while they let Odell Beckham and Saquon Barkley be wasted. Philadelphia will figure it out eventually even if they aren’t the same team as last year, I’ll take a shot at -110.

Much like Philadelphia, Jacksonville obviously doesn’t look right either. The thing about this situation is, if you thought The NFC East was weak, let me show you the AFC South. Indianapolis was in a perfect situation to get a win this week against The Jets and couldn’t do it falling to 1-6. Yes, Houston barely squeaked by The Bills but against any other team, they would have lost that game. I talked about Tennessee above as well. Jacksonville will win this division by default and just because they haven’t ended the race by October you’re actually getting a pretty nice discount to buy low.

Yes, I bought both of those positions what appears to be a week early, but I’m really okay with it. You can re-up or choose to buy in to Washington, but it’s clear it’s now a two horse race between The Redskins and Philadelphia. I still don’t think anyone knows what to do with the AFC South.

5. Kansas City Is Making It Look Easy

My lord. That Sunday night game was the biggest one sided game in some time as Patrick Mahomes is straight up on another planet right now. Drew Brees had a down week although he somehow pulled out the win, but that is nothing compared to what Patrick Mahomes is doing. From simply the eye test, no one else can run across his body and throw the ball with that type of velocity sixty yards down field. The weapons on this offense are the best Andy Reid has possibly ever had with the turnaround of Spencer Ware, the speed of Tyreek Hill, and the power possession game of Travis Kelce.

Yes, KC did lose to New England, but despite New England playing some better teams than KC to this point, when you look at this from a power ranking perspective, the fact that Mahomes has played most of his games on the road, if New England doesn’t get home field advantage this could be a complete changing of the guard. I have to see Andy Reid and Mahomes do it before I’ll ever back them in that spot, but you have to take some stock in Mahomes for MVP right now.

A jack of all trades, Christian got his start in the gambling industry using a model to predict players performance in daily fantasy sports. Eventually, he used that same model to cross over into NFL handicapping, specifically the prop market and honed his craft enough to cross over from player projections into every aspect of sports Handicapping. He then made the full time move to Las Vegas to become a professional sports handicapper, utilizing his knowledge of all sports including NFL, NCAA, NBA, UFC, and MLB. He's currently the resident #DFS expert on The Sports Gambling Podcast as well as managing editor.

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