The NBA/NHL season is over, which means we have officially entered the dog days of summer sports betting. Also known as the beginning of actual summer. Folks, from here on out all we have is baseball, unless you are European or something and you enjoy soccer or whatever.
Personally, I don’t enjoy lines of over/under 2 whole goals and how many yellow cards will be handed out, but that’s just me. Living on the west coast as I do, daily fantasy is my game of choice. Nothing makes a workday go by faster than getting in on those Tuesday or Thursday early games that sometimes start at 9:30am. I am going to let you in on my foolproof method of creating the perfect (good enough) daily fantasy baseball lineup:
Check The Weather
It’s easiest to place in a contests on days when there are potential rainouts in multiple ballparks. Daily Fantasy is a game of skill, so it is imperative to take advantage of the morons and degenerates who just throw money around without even caring about the consequences.
There are a total of 7 indoor ballparks, six with retractable roofs plus the monstrosity in Tampa. The remaining 23 ballparks are located in 20 cities. Coincidentally there are 20 entries that can be added to the ‘weather’ iPhone app. If there is a 50% chance of rain at game time, there is no need to start anybody in that game.
As a jealous Greg Maddux once exclaimed in regards to Heather Locklear’s fawning gaze of Mark McGwire in the retrospectively ironic Nike add from my childhood “chicks dig the long ball.” So do daily fantasy owners. Make sure everybody in your lineup is capable of the long ball if you want to win the big bucks.
You will need 4-5 homeruns out of your 8 player lineup if you want to place in the top 1% of the green. Don’t waste your time on the Dee Gordons or Billy Hamiltons of the world, chances are even if they get you 2 SBs, it won’t be enough to put you in the big $$$.
Day / Night & Home / Away Splits
I have a hunch that most Daily Fantasy sites overvalue for OBP% when in fact SLG% is what wins you these contests. Start position players with home day games if the situation is right. The majority of the league has a higher SLG % during home games (by almost 18 points) as well as day games (a modest 4 points) which leads to more people on base, more plate appearances, more people to drive in.
It is true that players get more plate appearances on the road, however the average DraftKings pick homers in nearly 2 fewer plate appearances this month at home. Remember, home runs are the key metric here. I’ve had success stacking 2-3 players on a hot team at home who will drive each other in. I’ve drafted winning lineups with Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz, and Mike Zunino lately. All guys with pop, and good SLG % for their value.
$18,000 Limit For Both Pitchers
I can’t remember the last time I had a fire lineup with 2 stud pitchers on it. Usually when that happens, you have to draft 2 position players for well under $3,000 each. It’s just not worth it. Pick an ace and a wily veteran pitching at home if possible. ESPN has a great reference tool wherein you can select the probable starting pitcher stats subcategory of ‘bat vs pitch’ allowing you to find the success rate of said starting pitcher vs. the current roster of the opponent.
For tonight’s Rangers game, Cole Hamels is facing a Padres lineup that has exactly zero extra base hits in 30 chances against him. You might want to pick him up. Full disclosure, Cole Hamels beaned me in the neck freshman year of high school and I thought I was going to die.
Ride The Hot Hand
Baseball is the streakiest team sport. Always be aware of the trends in baseball. Evan Gattis is on fire. Nelson Cruz is on fire. Mike Trout is on fire (despite the fact that pitches are finally starting to pitch around him). Eugenio Suarez is on a tear. Keep riding the hot hand. And don’t forget to check the weather.
Daily Fantasy Baseball Lineup For 06-25-18
P: Cole Hamels
P: Jameson Tailon
C: Mike Zunino
1B: Carlos Santana
2B: Ben Zobrist
3B: Kyle Seager
SS: Kike Hernandez
OF: Nelson Cruz
OF: Colby Rasmus
OF: Kyle Schwarber