1.The Spread Is Still Dead
I hate to harp on this (not really–its kind of become my trademark but after only having the spread matter in two games last week, it mattered in only the finale this week as Chicago covered 3.5 but not winning outright losing by 3. I hate to include this every week but at this point it has to be taken seriously because it’s going on a year and a half of this trend of only 1-2 games a week having the spread actually come into play here. When a dog covers, they win outright, and on the contrary-favorites are covering spreads. Just pick the winners. Parlays, not teasers folks.
2. Public Dogs Usually Have Fleas
I’m a big non-believer in trap lines. For those those of you that don’t know what a “Trap Line” is, its what seems to be a “fishy” line that people are under the assumption that Vegas is “baiting” you to take. Here’s the deal. I’ve talked to many odds makers in my time in Las Vegas. There’s no such thing. There is one pure line, and that’s the opener. After that, it’s just risk managers trying to balance the sheets. Cincinatti -3 had the public all over Buffalo and the same thing happened with Detroit.
3. I’m ready to announce it. The 70/30 Rule is Back
As we touched on last week, the 70/30 rule is back. After going 9-1 the last three weeks, this week Jacksonville (30% of bets, Carolina (32%) both covered bringing teams that are getting less than 30% of the bets to a record of 11-1 the last three Sundays. It’s to the point that you even have to avoid teasing the teams at 70% down now. What a world when Blake Bortles is running Big Ben off the field. The rule is simple, if you see a team getting less than 30% of the bets, hold your nose and go the other way. Pro tip: Please stop backing Matthew Stafford against a team that is going to finish over .500 at the end of the season. 5-50 now folks.
4. Extra Rest Again
Teams with extra rest were 8-0 against the number coming into week 5, and it would have led you to backing Green Bay and Chicago. Green Bay got the job done to bring our record to an undefeated 9-0 on this trend. Aaron Rodgers certainly helped us out on our journey coming through in typical Rodgers fashion, but a win is a win. Chicago actually had the double whammy however, as they played on Thursday and had even another day as they battled The Vikings on Monday night.
Chicago kept are streak in tact as they covered 3.5, although didn’t win outright. Here’s the deal this week though.It’s the first week with teams coming off byes, so time will tell if this is a Thursday night thing, or an extra rest thing. Teams off Thursday Night (9-1) Patriots -9.5 Against NYJ, and TB -2 against ARI. Teams off a bye: Falcons, Denver, New Orleans, Washington.
5. Adapt. The Eagles And Chiefs May Be Good…Elite.
Yeah. You read that right. The pride of Sean T Green and the dump off artist known as Alex Smith may be the two best teams in the AFC and NFC. OK. It’s only the halfway point but as anyone that knows me knows I was the highest of any team this year as far as a season wins over on The Eagles at 8.5. that being said, I whiffed and had a pretty strong position on Chiefs under 9, but that’s life in the NFL. Here’s the deal though.
Patrick Mahomes has clearly lit something under Alex Smith and Carson Wentz has clearly taken that next step and now that he has weapons outside of a tight end and 30+ year old running back, they are serious contenders. Philadelphia and Houston have laid waste to most of the league (Can’t believe I’m saying that), outside of a hiccup or two and both quarterbacks are only getting better. The key here is futures. Eagles to win the NFC East, and Houston to win AFC South. Book those positions.