1. The Patriots Aren’t Breaking Rules Anymore
As anyone who could spin $10 dollars together last season to get down on New England, they’d tell you New England was a cash cow all season, as they couldn’t make numbers big enough for them to not cover. Teasers, parlays, money line, or spread–it didn’t matter. Well folks, it’s decision time for you. Is the party over or will the market over adjust and should you double down?
Unfortunately this article isn’t a look into the future, but New England is now 2-2 and have lost two games at home where they have always been untouchable. It’s not an auto teaser leg anymore, that’s for sure. The Westgate casino and Super Book opened New England a -4 point favorite for this Thursday’s game against Tampa Bay in what’s sure to be the lowest spread in a long time for a A Patriots game.
2. Public Continues To Take A Beating
Going lock step with New England faltering, the public doesn’t seem to be able to pick a game anymore. Teams that were receiving less than 30% of the bets (Carolina, Jets, Buffalo) went a combined 3-0, although the public did cash in on Cincinnati (70%), you can always count on The Browns after all, however 1-3 still won’t get it done. This is after week 3 where teams receiving less than 30% of the bets went 5-0. It looks like the 70/30 rule is coming back folks. Fade that public.
3. Extra Rest Again
Teams with extra rest were 6-0 against the number coming into week 5 and would have lead to you backing San Francisco (+7) and The LA Rams (+6.5). Now, I do think that some of this is the evolution of Jared Goff and what Sean McVay is doing in LA, but the numbers are undeniable at this point as both teams covered the number with LA winning outright moving the ATS number of Thursday night teams to 8-0. Chicago gets a double dip as they don’t play again until Monday night, having 11 days off to get Mitch Trubisky ready. Teams on extra rest this week: Green Bay (Vs. Dallas) and Chicago (Vs. Minnesota).
4. Throwing The Spread Out
This one is near and dear to my heart as you know, but frankly, the spread didn’t matter at all in week 4. Underdogs Buffalo, Carolina, LA, Houston, Detroit, and The Jets all won outright, while every favorite that won also covered in Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and Green Bay all won and covered. The takeaway? make sure you’re sprinkling on that underdogs money line. Parlays, not teasers. San Francisco +7 and The Giants at +2.5 were the only spreads to matter this week.
5. Travel Woes And Desperation
Back to back travel teams Pittsburgh (won), Oakland, and Giants went 1-2 straight up this week although The Giants did cover the number this week, while teams who were desperate for a win in The Chargers and Giants couldn’t get the job done as The Chargers and Giants fell to 0-4 and will now play each other this week. Dallas couldn’t get a much needed win and fell to 2-2, and Oakland may have had their division odds take a huge hit by losing to Denver and falling to 2-2 as well.
The takeaway? Just because a team is desperate, doesn’t mean their worth of backing them. Teams on second trip of back to back road games for week 5: San Francisco, Buffalo, Carolina, Tennessee,Jacksonville.