There have been a number of surprises in the 2017 NFL Season. At the top of that list may just be the Patriots and their 2-2 record that include a mighty 1-2 at home that could very easily be 0-3 if Brady work his magic to defeat the Texans. The root of their problem, and the reason they might not just bounce back like they did in 2014, is very simply their defense is awful. They currently are twice as bad as the Browns who boast the #30 defense according to DVOA. Will they correct it on short rest on the road, doubtful, but Im not going against the monster that is Belichick and Brady off a loss.
As for the Bucs, they boast a 2-1 record against Bears, Vikings and Giants. Forgive me for not buying the hype quite yet but the NE defense has helped QBs and offenses in general get right this year. Will they continue their improved play at home or will Winston fail to take advantage of the defensive struggles with some timely boneheaded plays created by classic Belichick confusion? Its hard to see that defense creating problems for anyone but this is a different type of QB who is not the best decision maker and perhaps prematurely on the hype train.
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Last Week: 3-2(+.8u)
Thursday Night Football Game Info
Time: Thursady October 5th @ 5:30 PM Pacific
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Weather: 79f & Partly Cloudy w/ 15mph winds
TV: NFL Network(Jim Nantz, Tony Romo) *CBS in local markets
Spread: Patriots -5
Thursday Night Football Prop Bets – Five Ways to Get Paid
1. Jameis Winston Over 293.5 passing yds (-110)
Ill keep this one simple and to the point. The patriots are giving up ~335 yards/game to QBs this season. Mean while Winston has gone for 204(Game was over by halftime and they were just pounding the rock), 328 and 332. Take the over and run.
2. Tom Brady Over 26.5 completions (-105)
Again lets keep it simple, I wanted to take the over for both QBs yardage props but at 319.5 I see more value in completions. The Bucs have given up ~28 completions per game and rank 27th in DVOA for pass defense. That right there is enough for me with out even factoring in the fact that the Patriots defense is that bad. When the game total open at 55.5 it was the highest total in Thursday Night Football history and I expect the game flow to follow suit. Look for Brady to spray the ball around underneath early and often in who looks to be a sloppy shootout.
3. Tom Brady No INT (-165)
Sure its a bit risky to take a prop like this when you are also betting on over for completions because you are expecting alot of attempts and crazy shit can happen. That being said, this is a Bucs defense that failed to intercept Eli Manning and Case Keenum. Now while they pick off Mike Glennon twice, I think its safe to say Brady is in a slightly different class. Brady brings in his laser focus and keeps a clean sheet.
4. Cameron Brate Over 33.5 receiving yards (-105)
This is just a bad line period. The Patriots are giving up 65.5 yards per game to opposing TEs and and two days of practice arent going to fix this historically bad defense. With much of the focus surely headed toward Evans/Jackson in the pass game and OJ Howard being used as a blocker, Brate will be involved in a similar fashion to last week where he snagged 4 of 6 targets for 80 yards. You can thank me when you hit this in the 1st Half.
5. Under 4.5 Sacks (-135)
The Bucs and Patriots are averaging a hilarious combined 2.3 sacks per game and both sit in the bottom 5 in adjusted sack rate. Yes you might say that in a game that figures to see 80 drop backs there is some added risk and variance but I am very comfortable fading these pass rushes. Lay the extra juice and enjoy the fireworks.
Good luck and Let it Ride!!!