Thursday Night Football Week 8 Prop Bets Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) bring on the guest from the Prop Cast for Thursday Night Football prop bets on Panthers at Packers. First, though, Eagles fans need a minute after Dallas pushed them around at home on Monday night.
Eagles Bottom Out And The First Coach Fired Market
Sean Green came in fresh off watching the Eagles get pushed around by the Cowboys at home on Monday Night Football, and he called it what it was: a gutless, heartless performance, led by a defense that never showed up. That makes five losses in a row. The only relief came from the live stream tickets, because the McKee passing yards over and the Dallas Goedert over 41.5 receiving yards both cashed. Philly is still just two wins back in the division with about 10 games left. But the next stretch is two divisional games and then the bye, so the signs of life have to show up fast.
So who goes first? Ryan Kramer noted that Nick Sirianni’s next coach out price has climbed to almost 12 cents, second only to Dan Quinn. Sean would be very surprised to see the Eagles fire a coach midseason who has been to two Super Bowls and won one. The guest from the Prop Cast then made the case against his own Jets coach. Aaron Glenn is 0 and 8 in the division and 0 and 8 in the AFC, with fewer division wins than a Dolphins head coach who has one career win. With Quinn at plus 150 and Glenn around 9 to 1, Kramer grabbed a piece of Glenn first coach fired at plus 950. The Jets already fired Robert Saleh midseason, and the guys think those two prices should be a lot closer.
Sean also shut down the tank talk. Intentionally losing is loser mentality, in his words, and the draft is about picking the right players rather than picking high, which is why he would rather see Joe Milton get a look than watch the Eagles play for a better slot. Kramer backed him up with the Giants landing Abdul Carter and Jaxson Dart in the same draft. Then the conversation drifted to overtime. Kramer dropped the stat that in 1973 the Packers, Browns, Broncos and Chiefs all finished with two ties, which pushed the NFL to create overtime in 1974. The guest wants the period bumped to at least 15 minutes if both teams are guaranteed a drive.
Panthers At Packers Thursday Night Football Prop Bets
The Panthers head to Green Bay as three and a half point dogs, and the guest opened the card with Bryce Young under 10.5 rushing yards at minus 108. Young has stayed under that number in every game this season. He has also been under 11 rushing yards in nine of his last 11 road games, so the mobility just is not showing up in the box score. Kramer went the other way with the arm, taking Young 250 plus passing yards at even money. When the Packers have not faced a backup, only Geno failed to get there, and he finished at 247. Carolina also ranks third in pass rate over expectation, so expect Young to throw early and often.
Sean’s case for Ted McMillan over 5.5 receptions starts with the matchup. Green Bay leads the league in receptions allowed to wide receivers, giving up 99 catches to the position in seven games. McMillan has 24 catches over his last three, a stretch that includes 14 against the Lions, and even in the Bucs blowout he still caught four. Jalen Coker was limited in practice, which could push McMillan to 10 or more targets. Then Kramer raised the ceiling. In the two games where McMillan drew double digit targets he hit 100 yards both times, so Kramer laddered the yardage up to 100 at plus 235 and stacked it with the Young passing over.
Josh Jacobs got more attention than anyone on the card. The guest is selling high on the five catch game against Detroit, taking Jacobs under 2.5 receptions at minus 111 because he has stayed under three catches in seven of his last eight games dating back to last season. Sean likes the ground game instead, with Jacobs over 54.5 rushing yards against a Panthers defense allowing 126 yards per game to running backs. He sees a bell cow workload and at least 60 yards. The guest also came back with the degen play, a Jacobs second half touchdown at 2 to 1. Jacobs has scored a second half touchdown in four of his last five home games, and Carolina gives up 1.5 touchdowns per game to backs, the third most in the league.
Kramer stayed in the Green Bay passing game with Tucker Kraft over 4.5 receptions at plus 105. Kraft has five or more catches in three of his last four, and tight ends have eaten against Carolina, with Goedert catching six, LaPorta catching eight on 13 targets and Fannin catching seven on nine. Kramer is also less sure than the other two that this is a Jacobs game, because LaFleur tends to forget about the run, and he thinks it turns into a sneaky high scoring night. Sean closed the prop run with Jordan Love over 4.5 rushing yards. The Panthers have struggled against running quarterbacks, and with the Packers dealing with offensive line issues, one scramble gets it done.
First Touchdown Cards And The 72-1 Swings
Kraft at 10 to 1 made the first touchdown card for both the guest and Kramer. The guest filled out his with McMillan at 13 to 1, Marshon Lloyd at 16 to 1 and John Metchie at 50 to 1, since Metchie should see more work if Coker is limited or out. Kramer also has Metchie at 50 to 1, and he argued that price should shrink toward 25 to 1 once people process the Coker news, which makes it a bet to take early in the week. He added Tommy Tremble at 32 to 1 and a Mark Redman flier at 100 to 1. Sean went single bullet instead. His full unit is on Darren Waller at 24 to 1, a price he found on a prediction market.
The three leg Underdog entry pairs the guest’s Jacobs lower 2.5 receptions with Kramer’s Metchie higher 1.5 receptions and Sean’s McMillan higher 5.5 receptions, and a $100 entry returns $552. Then came the degen parlays. The guest went reverse correlation on Watson, under 4.5 catches with 100 plus yards, and added McMillan 100 plus yards for roughly 77 to 1. Sean paired Jacobs 100 plus rushing yards with McMillan 10 catches at 72 to 1. Kramer tied his whole read together with Young over 300 passing yards, McMillan 100 yards, the game over 62.5 and Carolina winning by 3.5 on an alt line. A $100 ticket on that one pays $7,194.
Brewers, Banner Night And Harbaugh’s Khakis
The guest wrapped with updates from the rest of his slate. He keeps betting the Brewers and keeps winning, and Milwaukee sits one game from a World Series title with an 11 and 1 playoff record. He also swept his WNBA Finals card with the game under and a team total under, then cashed a 25 to 1 tennis outright last week. On the NBA side, he does not mind the 0 and 3 Knicks minus 3.5 at home against the 3 and 0 Pistons, because a bad record team laying points to a good one is usually a sign. Sean dug up that reigning champs are 21 and 8 straight up on banner night since 1994, but only 13 and 16 against the spread. And the Chargers talk ended with Sean’s fix for that offense: Harbaugh and Mike McDaniel need to switch pants.
Podcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:47 Eagles Get Destroyed on Monday Night Football
4:30 Eagles Should Just Tank
10:35 Aaron Glenn and Dan Quinn First Coach Fired With The Guest
16:38 Ties and NFL Overtime Rules
18:43 Bryce Young Under 10 and a Half Rushing Yards
20:27 Bryce Young 250 Plus Passing Yards
21:39 Ted McMillan Over Five and a Half Receptions
22:55 Josh Jacobs Under Two and a Half Receptions
24:15 Josh Jacobs Over 54 and a Half Rushing Yards
25:02 McMillan 100 Yards Plus 235
26:21 Josh Jacobs Second Half Touchdown at 2 to 1
28:51 Tucker Kraft Over Four and a Half Receptions
30:21 Jordan Love Over Four and a Half Rush Yards
31:08 First Touchdown Card: Craft, Waller and Metchie
35:59 Underdog Three-Leg Entry
38:24 Parlays at 72 to 1
41:36 World Series, WNBA Finals, Harbaugh and Banner Night
50:18 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
