Week 8 of NFL action is in front of us, and boy, have a lot of things changed since the schedule release back in May. The Minnesota Vikings remain the only undefeated team, while the Los Angeles Chargers are the only winless team. Two things a lot of people didn’t have on their bingo cards. The look-ahead lines have changed as well, pretty drastically in a few games. Let’s dive into the NFL Week 8 line moves and see what the market is telling us.
Last week the market overcorrected a little. Cleveland was a correct call going from look-ahead underdogs to small favorites over the Titans. They were very wrong taking the Texans to -10 favorites, as they lost outright to the Giants. Same story for Carolina. They flipped from a dog to a favorite and got their wheels blown off. It’s worth noting Carolina will be a Close Your Eyes Special (a team that underperforms the spread by 21 and catches points the next week) against the Green Bay Packers.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) to (-7.5)
The London Jaguars are back in Florida and fresh off a bye week, transitioning back into the Jacksonville Jaguars. They’ll face AFC South divisional rivals, the Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at Everbank Stadium in Jacksonville. The Jaguars have owned this rivalry lately winning five of the last six matchups, and seven of the last 10 over the Colts. Generally, division games tend to be close, but I think it’s important to note here that in the last two and in seven of the last nine matchups, the game has been decided by at least seven points.
With this number moving across seven to -7.5, I certainly feel a lot better as a Jaguars bettor that a lot of their games haven’t been close. Jacksonville at 4-2 has looked like one of the better teams in the NFL this season. Indianapolis, at just 2-4, has not. They kept games with Houston and Kansas City close, and did have an early lead against the Vikings last week. But, I’d argue Jacksonville is the best team they’ve faced and has more than earned this number crossing seven.
Pick: Follow the Movement – Jaguars -7.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) to (-1.5)
This is probably the most interesting line movement on the board. Tampa Bay was supposed to be 4.5 point favorites. That number has crossed three, all the way down to just 1.5. Back in May nobody knew what the Atlanta Falcons would look like at quarterback, and it played out interestingly enough. Now, they just took down what was an undefeated San Francisco team.
For Tampa, it’s been a roller coaster. They looked terrible. Then lost Baker Mayfield. The defense started to flash a little here and there. Baker came back last week, and the Buccaneers just throttled the Carolina Panthers. They seem like a good team overall. Being in Tampa, the question now is, are the Falcons really the better team enough to be getting less than the traditional three points a road dog would usually get? I think this one is close, and truly could go either way. However, we have to fade the movement in this one. A division opponent coming off the game they had last week, at home, giving three fewer points than anticipated. And remember, Atlanta beat a beat-up 49ers team looking toward a bye.
Pick: Fade the Movement – Buccaneers -1.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) to (+3.5)
The only game this week where the favorite has flipped is the Philadelphia Eagles, who were originally the favorites. Now, they’ll head to Washington to take on the 1-4-1 Commanders, who will be fresh off their bye. Washington is now favored, and shockingly by more than a field goal. Philadelphia has endured more injuries than anyone else this season, and at important positions like losing their quarterback Jalen Hurts to blood clots.
But even with Tanner McKee starting, is Washington really six points better now? In a tough NFC East division game where the one-win team is now favored by more than three? For a team that can’t manage the end of a game with an easy win on the line, going up against great coaching for Philadelphia. Eagles are the easy play here. The market has overcorrected too much.
Pick: Fade the Movement – Eagles +3.5
