NFL Picks Week 7 Recap
Sean Green (@SeanTGreen) and Ryan Kramer (@KramerCentric) make their NFL Week 7 picks against the spread for every game, from Patriots at Bears on Thursday to Cowboys at Eagles on Monday night. It ends with Sean taking the Packers money line as his dog and Ryan riding the Raiders.
Parity Everywhere And No Close Your Eyes Specials
Week 7 of the 2026 season comes with a strange quirk that a viewer in the chat caught first. There are no close-your-eyes specials on the board. Sean Green confirmed that no team is coming off a loss by more than one possession against an opponent outside that spot, which hasn’t happened since Week 11 of 1991. That fits a season full of one-score games, where dogs in the three-and-a-half to six-and-a-half range have cashed and division dogs have held up.
So the parity talk turns into an elimination game. Ryan Kramer calls the Dolphins the only team that can be shot in the head with full confidence, and if forced to cut four, the list is the Titans, Dolphins, Chargers and Commanders. Sean Green would slide the 2-4 Cardinals in there because their division is too good, and Kramer agrees they’re close with a comical point differential. Meanwhile the NFC refuses to thin out. The Bucs are 1-5 and only two wins back of Carolina. The Lions sit in last at 3-2 while Minnesota is 5-0, so a nine-win wild card looks very possible.
NFL Week 7 Picks Kick Off With Bears Minus Three
Thursday night is Caleb Williams against Drake Maye, with Chicago laying three (-160) and New England at +140 on a 50.5 total. Both hosts are on the Bears. Ryan Kramer is shocked the number isn’t bigger and has it at three and a half. The market was wrong on Chicago last week, and Ben Johnson against Mike Vrabel at home is the side to be on. Sean Green points straight at the Patriots front. Both starting guards are out, Alijah Vera-Tucker included, the right tackle is limited and Romeo Doubs is on IR. Maye has crumbled behind bad line play before, and this Bears defense is well-coached enough to take advantage.
There’s a matchup angle on top of it. Chicago runs two-tight-end sets 34% of the time, fourth most in the league, and New England sits in nickel 79% of the time. So expect some 12 personnel, which also helps the Cole Kmet case from the prop show. If anything gets played on the total, the lean is the over. Prime-time dogs have been on a heater, maybe 13 straight by one count, but this feels like the spot where it stops. It’s also a good time to buy Bears stock while it’s cheap.
Then it’s across the pond to Paris for a 6:30 AM Pacific kick, with Pittsburgh laying three and a half (-188) against the Saints (+163) and a 44 total. The line opened at two and a half and has only gone one way. Ryan Kramer watched the Saints in person against the Giants and saw a stretch where New York just stopped pressuring the New Orleans quarterback, who looked bad whenever the pressure came. Patrick Graham won’t make that mistake. Sean Green likes Jaylen Warren against a Saints run defense that ranks dead last by some measures. Favorites are also 39-23-1 ATS overseas. Both hosts lay the 3.5.
Bryce Versus Baker And A Public Dog With Fleas
Baker Mayfield is probably back for Tampa, practicing in full and maybe wearing a glove on his throwing hand. That’s enough for Sean Green to lay three at home with Carolina. Baker fumbled three times against the Bengals with a healthy hand, and Bucky Irving is dealing with an illness. Ryan Kramer goes the other way and takes the Bucs. Carolina is 3-13 as a divisional favorite since 2016, the Panthers zigzag between wins and losses, and the Tampa defense is starting to play. Tampa has also won 12 of the last 15 in this series. If the Bucs lose, Bryce Young might just be a franchise quarterback.
The Jets are laying five (-235) to a winless Miami team coming off its bye, with a 39.5 total. Sean Green takes the Dolphins plus the points, and the reason is Geno Smith, who is 3-11 ATS as a favorite of three and a half or more. Miami had two weeks to prepare. Ollie Gordon should find room, and this team keeps finding the back door. But Ryan Kramer swore off the Dolphins and lays the five with New York. The Jets are punching down for the first time all season with the better roster and the better quarterback. The guys also spent a while arguing about whether Miami is a public dog at all.
Cleveland is a two-point road favorite in Tennessee (-130 on the moneyline) with a 37 total, and this one is unanimous. Tennessee got its first win last week, but Cam Ward still threw for about 100 yards. The trend making the rounds sits at 0-12 straight up and 0-12 ATS off a win. Then the Titans released defensive tackle Jordan Elliott after an argument with a teammate that ended with him going to his car for a firearm. Sean Green likes a Browns defense that is 12th overall with the 11th best pressure rate and would lay the -130, because a 17-16 Browns win is in the cards. Ryan Kramer has the Titans on the do-not-bet list.
J.J. McCarthy Starts And Atlanta Gets Bijan Going
Houston is laying 10 (-475) to the Giants (+380) with a 43 total, and John Harbaugh named J.J. McCarthy the starter. Ryan Kramer is on Giants plus 10 without hesitation. Fire it to Nabers and Isaiah Likely, get Cam Skattebo at least 15 carries, and let a quarterback with nothing to lose sling it. Sean Green lays the 10 with Houston. McCarthy finished 29th of 29 quarterbacks in catchable pass rate in Week 6, and the Giants are minus three net yards per play on the road. Houston is also the best offense in the league against the blitz at .47 EPA per play, which kills the one thing this Giants defense does well.
San Francisco is 6-0 and laying three in Atlanta (-148, Falcons +128, 49.5 total), and both hosts take the home dog. Sean Green wanted the four and a half from earlier in the week but still bets it at three. Bijan Robinson ran nine times for 61 yards last week and caught just two balls, and pass-catching backs are the soft spot in this Niners defense. Mike Evans has Achilles tendonitis with a bye on deck. Trent Williams didn’t practice either. Ryan Kramer adds that San Francisco grades as a top-five DVOA defense but sits bottom 10 in adjusted line yards. The scary note is Shanahan at 7-0 ATS after a Monday night win.
Minnesota comes off the bye laying six and a half (-280) to Indy (+235) with a 41.5 total, and both hosts grab the Colts. The Vikings have scored the fewest points in the league, and this is the largest spread for a bottom-five EPA per play team in five years. Indy just fired its GM. Over the last decade, the 12 teams that fired a GM in season went 8-4 ATS the next game. Daniel Jones is 17-8 ATS as a road dog of more than four points, while Kyler Murray sits at 16-22 ATS as a favorite. The Colts injury report is ugly at corner, but six and a half is too many for that offense. Plus, Call of Duty drops Friday.
Baltimore and Cincinnati is a pick’em at -110 each way with a 48.5 total, after sitting at three earlier in the week when Lamar Jackson looked likely to play. Sean Green reads the move as Lamar sitting and takes Cincinnati. Joe Burrow is 48-25 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown, and the Bengals come off a bye with the eighth best pressure rate to throw at Tyler Huntley. Ryan Kramer takes Baltimore at the pick for now, partly on the chance Lamar returns and partly because the outside run game should work. Then the plan is to revisit it in Vegas on Friday once the quarterback is sorted out.
Tight End Day Ladders And The Late Window
It’s National Tight End Day on Sunday, so the Underdog entry is three tight ends to find the end zone: Darnell Washington, Darren Waller and Evan Engram. Sean Green went with Washington because the Steelers fed him three straight times at the end of the Browns game. Waller made it because scoring touchdowns is basically all he does. The Broncos bomb almost became Adam Trautman before Engram won out. Ryan Kramer locked in a version paying 5K on 50 with the 30% move the chains boost, a much better number than the other side of the table found.
Denver is laying four in Arizona (-210, Cardinals +180, 43.5 total), and both hosts are all over the Broncos. Bo Nix has played dreadful football. But Jonathan Cooper is eligible off the commissioner’s exempt list, and Vance Joseph will see on tape that pressure breaks Brissett. Arizona ranks 27th in pressure rate and dead last in net yards per play, and the Cardinals are 6-12 ATS after their last 18 victories. Sean Green remembers the last time Arizona won outright at SoFi as a big dog, then got destroyed by Drew Lock and Seattle. Ryan Kramer also expects Sean Payton to fix a third-down offense that sits bottom five in conversion rate.
Detroit comes off the bye laying three (-180) to Green Bay (+155) with a 54 total, and this one is a split. Sean Green takes the Packers plus three because Jordan Love is undefeated ATS at Ford Field, and the Lions secondary has been bad enough to fade all season. Sam LaPorta talking about not getting an extension doesn’t help the vibes. Ryan Kramer lays the three with Detroit, betting that Brian Branch coming back organizes a secondary that has been full of blown coverages. The Packers also lead the league in dropped air yards, and Green Bay has struggled in the red zone while Detroit has been elite there.
The Rams are laying four (-200) in Las Vegas with a 48.5 total. It’s the same handicap as last week’s Bills game for a Raiders team that has backdoored good opponents twice, and both hosts take the Raiders plus four. Davante Adams is out after rupturing his hamstring, Poona Ford is done for the year with a ruptured triceps, and leading tackler Nate Landman is in concussion protocol. Brandon McManus is the kicker off the street. Kirk Cousins is 7-2-1 ATS in his last 10 as a non-divisional dog of four or more. Then Ryan Kramer drops the wild take of the night: maybe Sean McVay got carried by coordinators like Matt LaFleur and Kevin O’Connell all along.
Showtime Mahomes And A Hurts-Less Monday
Sunday night has the Chiefs catching three in Seattle (+125, Seahawks -145, 42.5 total). Sean Green is all over Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS as a road dog since 2017, the Chiefs pressure quarterbacks 43% of the time, and Sam Darnold is pressured 46% of the time while holding the ball 3.15 seconds. Kenneth Walker also gets a revenge game against the team that didn’t want to pay its Super Bowl MVP. Ryan Kramer takes Seattle instead, liking that defensive front against a Chiefs line that could be without both tackles, and expects a low-scoring game. The plan is to lay two and a half in Vegas if it gets there.
Monday night is Dallas laying four and a half in Philadelphia (-215, Eagles +185, 44 total), with Tanner McKee starting after Jalen Hurts was lost for the season to a blood clot. Sean Green walks through the timeline and sees no evidence of negligence so far, pointing to the statements coming out of the Hurts camp. On the field, the Eagles get up for Dallas, they’re undefeated in the division, and DeVonta Smith should have a good game against this Cowboys defense. Both hosts take Philly plus the points. Ryan Kramer worried the model might like Dallas after the quarterback change, but it still found no value in the Cowboys.
Locks, Dogs And Teases For The Circa Million
Ryan Kramer went first and reshuffled twice. The final locks are Detroit minus three, Denver minus four and a Thursday lock on Chicago minus three that bumped Atlanta off the list. The dog is the Raiders on the moneyline at +175, which started as a lock before getting moved. So Atlanta landed in the teaser instead, up to nine, alongside the Eagles up to 10.5 and the Bucs up to nine. A Raiders and Falcons moneyline parlay also got floated at the very end of the show, and if you believe both dogs win outright, it’s hard to argue with the logic.
Sean Green locks Denver minus four, the Cleveland Browns and Kansas City plus three, which replaced Green Bay at the last second. The Packers still show up as the dog at +155 on the moneyline, because Jordan Love keeps showing up in Detroit. The tease is Houston down to four, Atlanta up to nine and the Raiders up to 10. Then the guys built the Circa Million card together with the Broncos minus four, Bears minus three, Browns minus two, Raiders plus four and Falcons plus three. It’s a balanced card, with a plus four against a minus four and a plus three against a minus three.
NFL Week 7 Odds
New England Patriots
Chicago Bears
Pittsburgh Steelers
New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titans
New York Giants
Houston Texans
San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons
Indianapolis Colts
Minnesota Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos
Arizona Cardinals
Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions
Los Angeles Rams
Las Vegas Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs
Seattle Seahawks
Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia EaglesPodcast Chapters
0:00 Download the SGPN App Today!
0:47 Sixers, Noops & the Ross Tucker Show
11:29 Parity & Elimination
14:55 Patriots vs. Bears Picks
21:47 Steelers vs. Saints Picks
30:40 Bucs vs. Panthers Picks
36:19 Dolphins vs. Jets Picks
43:34 Browns vs. Titans Picks
50:28 Giants vs. Texans Picks
1:00:43 San Francisco vs. Atlanta Picks
1:07:17 Indy vs. Minnesota Picks
1:13:45 Baltimore vs. Cincinnati Picks
1:21:45 National Tight End Day Underdog Entry
1:25:53 Denver vs. Arizona Picks
1:31:25 Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Picks
1:38:36 Los Angeles Rams vs. Las Vegas Raiders Picks
1:47:34 Kansas City Chiefs vs. Seattle Seahawks Picks
1:54:32 Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles Picks
2:05:33 Cowboys vs. Eagles Picks
2:11:30 Lock, Dog and Tease
2:17:58 Thank You for Participating in the Sports Gambling Podcast
